Original author: Daniel Batten
Original translation: Luffy, Foresight News
In recent years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been weaving a network to curb the development of Bitcoin through a series of measures:
Successfully forced El Salvador to abandon Bitcoin as legal tender and reverse some other Bitcoin policies
Successfully pressured Central African Republic to repeal Bitcoin law by 2023 through regional banking institutions
Argentine President Milley’s Bitcoin promises during the campaign have not translated into actual action
‘Serious concerns’ expressed about Pakistan’s Bitcoin plans
Cryptocurrency is always considered a “risk” in loan negotiations
Here is a summary table:
As we can see, the only countries that have been able to resist IMF pressure are El Salvador (until 2025) and Bhutan, which have not received IMF loans. Every country that has received IMF loans and attempted to adopt Bitcoin at a national level has been successfully blocked or largely thwarted by the IMF.
How has the IMF been so successful in preventing Bitcoin adoption in countries around the world (except Bhutan)? And why is it so aggressive?
In this detailed report, we take a closer look at three countries where the IMF has successfully resisted Bitcoin adoption, and suggest that it could do the same in Pakistan. In the final section of this report, we explore the IMF’s five concerns about Bitcoin, and how Bitcoin is still thriving at the grassroots level despite top-down abandonment or partial abandonment of Bitcoin by nation states.
1. Central African Republic: When colonial currency meets digital hope
The Central African Republic (CAR) uses the CFA franc. The CFA is not only a currency, but also a geopolitical chain, backed by France and managed by the Central Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Of its 14 member states, six Central African countries (including CAR) still have to keep 50% of their foreign exchange reserves in Paris.
This control of foreign exchange reserves fostered economic dependence while also creating preferential export markets for French goods. For example, in 1994, under pressure from the West (especially the IMF), the CFA was devalued by 50%, causing import costs to soar and exporters (mainly EU exporters) were able to obtain resources from CFA countries at half the price. Locally, the impact was devastating, leading to widespread wage freezes, layoffs and large-scale social unrest in CFA countries.
When the Central African Republic announced the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in 2022, the BEAC and its regulator, the Central African Republic Business Advisory Council, immediately declared the law invalid, citing a violation of the treaty establishing the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. This was not bureaucracy, but a warning from the guardians of the “Franc Africa” currency.
Why does it matter? To date, the Central African Republic's economy has been heavily dependent on IMF aid, and its $1.7 billion external debt (61% of GDP) means that defying the BEAC would risk financial isolation.
IMF’s Quiet Move
The IMF acted quickly. Within two weeks, on May 4, 2022, the IMF publicly condemned the Central African Republic’s “dangerous experiment,” citing legal inconsistencies with the Central African Economic and Monetary Community’s crypto ban. The IMF said the move raised “significant legal, transparency, and economic policy challenges” similar to previous concerns about Bitcoin adoption in El Salvador: risks to financial stability, consumer protection, and fiscal liabilities (notably, none of these risks have materialized in El Salvador).
But their real weapon is leverage. The IMF, the CAR’s largest creditor, has tied a new $191 million extended credit facility to policy compliance.
Timeline Revealed
The following chart traces the IMF's behind-the-scenes actions:
The key to undermining the CAR’s Bitcoin ambitions is ensuring that the Sango Project — a blockchain initiative launched by the CAR government that aims to sell “electronic residency” and citizenship for $60,000 in Bitcoin — does not proceed.
Sango Project, Coincidence or Conspiracy?
In July 2022, the Central African Republic launched the Sango project with the goal of raising $2.5 billion, equivalent to the country’s GDP for one year.
The Sango project failed. By January 2023, only $2 million (0.2% of the target) had been raised. The IMF report cited the failure as “technical barriers to only 10% internet penetration,” but our analysis came to a different conclusion. Two factors destroyed the Sango project:
Investor loss
Central African Republic Supreme Court ruling blocks Sango project
However, on closer inspection, both factors suggest IMF involvement.
Investors flee
The IMF’s role in this process was indirect but compelling.
On May 4, 2022, the IMF expressed concerns about the adoption of Bitcoin in the Central African Republic, saying it raises significant legal, transparency, and economic policy challenges. The statement, issued before the launch of the Sango project, highlighted the risks to financial stability and regional economic integration, which could scare off investors.
In July 2022, during a staff visit for the Staff Monitoring Program Review, the IMF noted an “economic downturn due to higher food and fuel prices,” which may have exacerbated investor caution.
The report also mentioned that the IMF and the Central African Republic’s Business Advisory Council warned the Central African Republic of the inherent risks of crypto initiatives, further fueling concerns.
The timing of these IMF statements coincided with the observed investor flight, suggesting that its cautious stance as an authoritative financial institution among the investor community may have influenced market perceptions.
Supreme Court ruling
On the surface, the Supreme Court ruling appears to be an isolated event, but a deeper look reveals that the independence of the Central African Republic’s judicial system is questionable – the country ranks 149/180 (very low) on the Corruption Perception Index.
As previously reported, a week after the Central African Republic announced its Bitcoin strategy, on May 4, 2022, the IMF expressed “concerns,” including risks to financial stability, transparency, anti-money laundering efforts, and challenges to macroeconomic policy management due to volatility.
117 days later, on August 29, 2022, the CAR Supreme Court ruled that the Sango project was illegal. International transparency agencies such as Gan Integrity say that the Supreme Court, which forms part of the Central African Republic's judicial system, is one of the most corrupt institutions in the country, with problems such as inefficiency, political interference and the possibility of being influenced by bribes or political pressure.
The collapse of the Sango project became the IMF’s “Exhibit A”: “Proof that Bitcoin cannot work in fragile economies.” But the reality is that the “concerns” that the IMF continues to express have undermined the project environment in advance, making this conclusion possible.
5,200 miles away, in the tiny country of Bhutan, we see something very different: Bitcoin is taking off without the “involvement” of the IMF.
The unspoken conclusion: Bitcoin’s resilience transcends borders
The reversal in the Central African Republic is not about the viability of Bitcoin, but about power. The IMF used a regional banking alliance to cut off the Central African Republic’s capital sources and leveraged a $191 million loan to eliminate the threat to financial sovereignty. When the Sango project ran into trouble, the trap was suddenly closed.
Yet this failure also reveals the enduring power of Bitcoin. Note what the IMF failed to destroy:
Bitcoin remittances in Nigeria still bypass USD corridors, saving millions in fees
Bitcoin trade booms in Kenya without IMF approval
El Salvador continues to accumulate Bitcoin despite mentioning it 221 times in loan conditions
The pattern is clear: Bitcoin will survive where grassroots adoption takes hold. But countries that have announced top-down Bitcoin initiatives and taken on large IMF loans have all encountered overwhelming resistance: El Salvador, Central Africa, Argentina, and now Pakistan.
Central Africa's outstanding $115.1 million IMF loan balance makes it subject to IMF pressure. In countries without IMF loans, such as Bhutan, Bitcoin slips through the fingers of the IMF. Every peer-to-peer payment and every Lightning Network transaction is eroding the foundations of the old system.
The IMF won this round in the Central African Republic, but the battle for global financial sovereignty has just begun.
2. Argentina’s $45 billion Bitcoin adoption barrier
If the Central African Communist Party's Bitcoin plan was thwarted, Argentina never got started. President Milley's pre-election remarks hinted at big moves, but in the end, nothing happened. Was this just empty talk by politicians during elections, or was there something else going on? This section will uncover the truth behind Argentina's aborted Bitcoin plan.
Understanding the progress of Bitcoin adoption is like assessing whether a rocket can reach escape velocity: we must examine both thrust and resistance.
I’m an optimist: I believe Bitcoin will win because it’s a clearly better solution to our current broken fiat currency system. But I’m also a realist: I think most people underestimate the strength of the conservative forces that oppose Bitcoin.
We were in the same situation when I was running a tech company. Our technology was 10x better, faster, and more cost-effective than the legacy system, but they wouldn’t give up their incumbent monopoly that easily.
What happened in Argentina?
When libertarian Javier Mille was elected president of Argentina in November 2023, many Bitcoin advocates cheered. The leader called central bank officials “crooks,” vowed to abolish the country’s central bank, and praised Bitcoin as “the natural response to central bank crooks.” The case became a litmus test for whether Bitcoin could gain mainstream acceptance through government adoption rather than grassroots growth.
But 18 months into his presidency, Milley’s Bitcoin vision has yet to be realized. The reason? The IMF’s $45 billion fund controls the country’s Bitcoin development.
IMF veto in Argentina
The restrictions were already in place when Milley was elected. On March 3, 2022, Argentina’s previous government signed a $45 billion IMF bailout agreement. In the weeks that followed, details emerged showing that the agreement included an unusual clause: a requirement to “block the use of cryptocurrencies.” This was not a recommendation, but a loan condition recorded in the IMF’s letter of intent, which mentioned concerns about “financial disintermediation.”
Direct impact:
Argentina’s central bank bans financial institutions from dealing in cryptocurrencies
Despite Milley’s pro-Bitcoin rhetoric, the policy was still implemented during his tenure
Mile's Turn
After Mireille took office:
Reduce monthly inflation from 25% to below 5% (May 2024)
Remove currency controls (April 2025)
New $20 billion IMF agreement secured (April 2025)
But the core proposals of his manifesto (Bitcoin adoption and abolishing central banks) are noticeably absent. The reason is simple: Argentina owes more to the IMF than any other country, giving the IMF unparalleled leverage.
Yet, there is an irony in Argentina’s case: despite the IMF’s efforts to block official Bitcoin adoption, Argentinians are embracing Bitcoin. South American cryptocurrency holdings grew 116.5% between 2023 and 2024, with Argentina having the highest rate in the region at 18.9%, nearly 3 times the global average. And this rate has risen sharply as citizens hedge against a high annual inflation rate of 47.3% (April 2025). It’s a quiet revolt that the IMF can’t control.
What happens next?
All eyes are on the midterm elections in October 2025. If Milley wins, he could challenge the IMF’s red lines. But for now, the lesson is clear: When a country borrows from the IMF, its monetary sovereignty is limited.
Key Takeaways
IMF 2022 loan explicitly ties Argentina’s bailout to anti-crypto policies
Miller prioritizes economic stability over Bitcoin advocacy to gain IMF support
Similarities between El Salvador, Central Africa and now Pakistan reveal IMF strategy
Argentines circumvent restrictions through grassroots Bitcoin adoption
3. El Salvador: A partial victory for the IMF
When El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, it was more than just the adoption of a cryptocurrency; it was a declaration of financial independence. President Nayib Bukele saw it as a symbol of resistance to dollar dominance and a lifeline for the unbanked. Three years later, that resistance has run into a $1.4 billion roadblock: the IMF.
The cost of rescue
In exchange for the 2024 loan, El Salvador agreed to repeal a key pillar of its Bitcoin policy:
Voluntary Acceptance: Businesses are no longer required to accept Bitcoin
Public Sector Ban: Government entities are prohibited from transacting in Bitcoin or issuing debt, including a ban on tokenized instruments pegged to Bitcoin
Bitcoin accumulation freeze: all government purchases halted (6000+ BTC reserves now frozen), and a full audit of holdings required by March 2025
Trust Fund Liquidation: Fidebitcoin (conversion fund) will be dissolved under the premise of audit transparency.
Chivo Wallet Phaseout: $30 incentive program to be phased out after survey shows most users convert BTC to USD.
Tax rollback: The dollar becomes the only option for taxation, eliminating Bitcoin’s utility as a sovereign payment.
Bukele's strategic retreat
El Salvador's compromise makes fiscal sense:
As bond repayments loom, loans stabilize debt (84% of GDP)
Dollarization remains unchanged (USD remains the dominant currency)
But the backsliding is striking given Bukele’s rhetoric in 2021. Low usage of the Chivo wallet may have driven its concession.
What's left of the experiment?
The IMF didn’t kill Bitcoin in El Salvador, it just killed official adoption. Grassroots use persists:
Bitcoin Beach is still operational and, in fact, thriving
Tourism attracts more and more Bitcoin enthusiasts
But without state backing, Bitcoin’s role is likely to be reduced, at least in the short term, to that of a niche tool rather than a monetary revolution.
The road ahead
There are two scenarios for the future path of Bitcoin in El Salvador:
Slowly fading: Bitcoin becomes a tourist curiosity as IMF conditions take full effect
Shadow renaissance: The private sector sustains its presence as government retreats
One thing is clear: when the IMF writes checks, it also writes the rules.
Key Takeaways
IMF loan forces El Salvador to reverse 6 key Bitcoin policies
Sets a precedent for other countries seeking IMF support
Grassroots Bitcoin adoption may outlast government involvement
El Salvador made a lot of concessions on Bitcoin. While it arguably didn’t hurt El Salvador much, it sent a strong signal to other Latin American countries like Ecuador and Guatemala, who watched El Salvador and considered copying its strategy (until they verified the size of their own IMF loans). So overall, this was a partial win for the IMF and a partial win for El Salvador.
4. Bhutan: A success story of breaking free from the shackles of the IMF
Bhutan’s bitcoin experiment has been going on for two years now, which means we now have some solid data on how it’s affecting the economy.
The IMF warned that countries that embrace Bitcoin will undermine economic stability, reduce efficiency in attracting foreign direct investment, and jeopardize decarbonization and environmental initiatives. It specifically expressed concern about the "lack of transparency" regarding crypto adoption in Bhutan.
What does the data say?
Bitcoin reserves directly meet urgent fiscal needs. "In June 2023, Bhutan allocated $72 million from its Bitcoin holdings to increase civil servants' salaries by 50%."
Bhutan was able to "use Bitcoin reserves to avoid crisis as foreign reserves dwindled to $689 million"
Prime Minister Tshering Togyal said in an interview that Bitcoin also "supports free healthcare and environmental projects."
Toghye also said their Bitcoin reserves help "stabilize the country's $3.5 billion economy."
Independent analysts say "this model could attract foreign investment, especially for countries with untapped renewable resources"
Given that the IMF’s analysis is not only wrong, but almost completely reversed, this raises the question: Are the IMF’s forecasts based on the data?
5. Five reasons why the IMF may be worried about Bitcoin
“Get all your friends, libertarians, Democrats, Republicans, get everyone to buy Bitcoin — then it will democratize.” John Perkins at the Bitcoin 2025 conference
What if the IMF’s biggest fear isn’t inflation… but Bitcoin? Can Bitcoin break the IMF/World Bank’s debt grip?
In my recent conversation with John Perkins, author of Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, something suddenly became clear. Alex Gladstein had previously pointed out that the IMF’s “structural adjustments” did not eliminate poverty, but made creditor countries richer. Perkins supplemented this with his own first-hand experience.
Perkins revealed to me how the global South is trapped in a debt cycle: a design designed to keep wealth flowing to the West. But here’s the twist: Bitcoin has disrupted this script in five key ways.
1) Lowering remittance costs to loosen debt shackles
Chris Collins' sculpture depicts a debt noose
Remittances (money that migrant workers send home) often account for a significant portion of GDP in developing countries. Traditional intermediaries such as Western Union charge fees of up to 5-10%, which amounts to a hidden tax. For countries such as El Salvador or Nigeria, central banks must store dollars to stabilize their currencies, and these dollar reserves are often provided by the IMF.
Bitcoin is a game changer
With the Lightning Network, transaction fees are reduced to almost zero and funds are deposited in seconds. In 2021, Salvadoran President Bukele optimistically predicted that Bitcoin could save $400 million in remittance fees. But the reality is that there is little evidence that remittance fees using Bitcoin are approaching this threshold. However, the potential is clear: more Bitcoin remittances will lead to higher dollar reserves, reducing the need for loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
No wonder the IMF mentions Bitcoin 221 times in its loan conditions for El Salvador through 2025, as they want to maintain their status as a relevant lender.
Not only is Bitcoin cheaper for remittances, it also bypasses the dollar system entirely. In Nigeria, where the naira is weak, households are now holding Bitcoin as a harder asset than the local currency. No central bank needs to drain dollar reserves, no IMF bailouts are needed.
The numbers speak for themselves:
Pakistan loses $1.8 billion in remittance fees every year, Bitcoin could save most of it
El Salvador uses only 1.1% of remittances in Bitcoin, saving over $4 million per year
Bitcoin’s reach is not yet fully covered. Only 12% of Salvadorans use Bitcoin regularly, and more than 5% of remittances in Nigeria are made in cryptocurrency. But the trend is clear: every Bitcoin transfer weakens the cycle of debt dependency.
The IMF sees a threat. The question is: How quickly will this silent revolution spread?
Remittances to Nigeria to reach nearly $21 billion in 2024, more than 4% of GDP
2) Avoiding sanctions and trade barriers
Oil-rich Iran, Venezuela and Russia have seen their access to dollars restricted by U.S. sanctions in 1979, 2017 and 2022, respectively, leading to significant reductions in their oil exports.
Whether we agree with the ideology of these countries or not, Bitcoin breaks the cycle. Iran has circumvented sanctions by using Bitcoin to “export oil”, while Venezuela has circumvented sanctions by paying for imports with Bitcoin.
Iran has also circumvented sanctions by monetizing energy exports for mining, which has avoided the IMF’s “reforms for cash” ultimatum while keeping the economy afloat. As Russia and Iran take the lead in bitcoin-for-oil trading, the petrodollar’s grip is weakening.
Another country that has used Bitcoin to avoid economic hardship caused by sanctions is Afghanistan, which uses Bitcoin for humanitarian aid. NGOs like Incentive Code have bypassed the Taliban’s bank freeze, and the Digital Citizens Fund has used Bitcoin to provide aid after the Taliban took over, saving some families from starvation.
Afghanistan's 'Incentive Code' NGO uses Bitcoin donations that the Taliban can't intercept to train women to write software
Although Bitcoin’s share of sanctioned trade is small, accounting for less than 2% of Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports, the trend is growing.
Sanctions are a key tool of geopolitical leverage, often supported by the IMF and World Bank because they align with major economies such as the U.S. The use of Bitcoin by sanctioned countries reduces the IMF’s control over financial flows while threatening the dominance of the U.S. dollar.
3) Using Bitcoin as a National Inflation Shield
When countries like Argentina face hyperinflation, they borrow dollars from the IMF to support their foreign exchange reserves and stabilize their currencies, but once they cannot repay, they will eventually face austerity or be forced to sell strategic assets at a low price. Bitcoin offers a way out, as a global, non-inflationary currency that is not regulated by governments and can appreciate in value.
El Salvador’s experiment shows how Bitcoin can reduce dollar dependency. By holding Bitcoin, the country can hedge against currency collapse without the need for an IMF loan. If Argentina allocated 1% of its reserves to Bitcoin in 2018, it could have offset more than 90% of the peso’s depreciation that year and avoided IMF assistance. Bitcoin’s neutrality also means that no single entity can impose conditions, unlike IMF loans that require privatization or unpopular reforms. Bitcoin has neither the debt leverage nor the long history of the IMF to draw on when it comes to encouraging adoption. However, due to the Lindy Effect (see chart below), Bitcoin becomes a more viable alternative every year.
The Lindy Effect: The longer something succeeds, the more likely it is to continue to succeed
4) Bitcoin Mining: Turning Energy into Debt-Free Wealth
Many developing countries are energy-rich but debt-ridden, mired in IMF loans for infrastructure such as dams or power plants. When defaults occur, these loans require cheap energy exports or resource concessions. Bitcoin mining turns this model on its head, turning stranded energy (such as flared natural gas or excess hydropower) into liquid wealth without the need for middlemen or transportation costs.
Paraguay earns $50 million a year from hydropower mining, covering 5% of its trade deficit. Ethiopia earned $55 million in 10 months. Bhutan is a standout: with $1.1 billion in Bitcoin (36% of its $3.02 billion GDP), its hydropower mining could generate $1.25 billion in wealth per year by mid-2025, paying off its $403 million World Bank and $527 million Asian Development Bank debts. Unlike IMF loans, mined Bitcoins appreciate in value and can be used as collateral for non-IMF borrowing. This model of monetizing energy without giving up assets scares the IMF because it weakens its control over the energy sector.
Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay calls Bitcoin a “strategic option to prevent brain drain”
5) Grassroots Bitcoin Economy: Bottom-up Power
Bitcoin is not just for countries, it’s for communities. At Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador or Bitcoin Ekasi in South Africa, locals have used Bitcoin for daily transactions, savings, and community projects like schools or clinics. These circular economies are often sparked by philanthropy and aim to achieve self-sufficiency. In Argentina, where inflation regularly exceeds 100%, 21% of people used cryptocurrencies to protect their wealth in 2021. If these models are replicated, they could reduce reliance on state debt-financed projects, which is of course the last thing the IMF wants.
Bitcoin Ekasi founder Hermann Vivier said his community was inspired by Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador and replicated their Bitcoin circular economy in South Africa
in conclusion
By building local resilience, Bitcoin weakens the IMF’s “crisis lever.” Thriving communities don’t need bailouts, so the IMF can’t demand privatization to repay loans. In Africa, projects like Gridless Energy have lifted 28,000 rural Africans out of energy poverty using renewable microgrids tied to Bitcoin mining, reducing the need for large IMF-backed projects. If thousands of towns adopt this model, dollar shortages will no longer matter, and trade can bypass the dollar system.
While the IMF occasionally spreads misinformation about Bitcoin’s energy consumption and environmental impact to discourage adoption, its more powerful tool is to use its financial influence over debtor nations to “encourage” compliance with its vision of a Bitcoin-free future.
The IMF has opposed the adoption of Bitcoin in El Salvador, the Central African Republic, and Argentina. Now, they are opposing Pakistan’s attempts to mine Bitcoin as a nation-state. The expansion of these grassroots forces may force the IMF to take more direct action.
Children from South Africa's poorest villages learn to surf through Bitcoin Ekasi project
The grassroots Bitcoin economy empowers communities to thrive without IMF bailouts. We need people power to find new and innovative ways to counter the IMF's crackdown.
