Original author: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Original translation: Vernacular Blockchain
As Bitcoin shows unprecedented bullish momentum, an inevitable question emerges: How high can the price of Bitcoin (BTC) actually go in this market cycle? This article will explore a series of on-chain valuation models and cycle timing tools to determine possible peak price targets for Bitcoin. Although predictions can never replace flexible reactions based on data, these analytical frameworks can help us better understand the current market position and possible future directions.
Price prediction tools
We begin by looking at the free price prediction tools provided by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which bring together several historically accurate valuation models. While data-based reactions are often more effective than blindly predicting prices, studying these indicators can still provide strong context for market behavior. When macroeconomic, derivative, and on-chain data begin to send warning signs, it is often a good time to take profits, regardless of whether a specific price target is reached. Nonetheless, exploring these valuation tools can still be instructive and can aid strategic decision-making when combined with broader market analysis.
Figure 1: Calculation of potential cycle tops using the Price Prediction Tool
The key models include the following:
Top Cap: The peak valuation is predicted by multiplying the historical average market value by 35. The model accurately predicted the top in 2017, but failed to accurately predict the 2020-2021 cycle, predicting more than $200,000, while Bitcoin's actual peak was about $69,000. The model currently predicts more than $500,000, which feels increasingly unrealistic.
Delta Top: Generates a more grounded forecast by subtracting the average market cap from the realized market cap (based on the cost basis of all circulating BTC). This model predicted a top of $80,000 to $100,000 in the last cycle.
Terminal Price: Calculated based on supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed, it is the model that is closest to each peak in history, including the $64,000 top in 2021. The current forecast is about $221,000, which may rise to $250,000 or more, and is considered the most credible model for predicting the macro Bitcoin top. More details on these indicators and their calculation logic can be found below the website chart.
Peak prediction
Another powerful indicator is the MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, providing a window into investor psychology. The ratio typically peaks around 4 during major cycles and is currently at 2.34, suggesting significant upside remains. Historically, long-term holders have begun to realize significant gains when MVRV approaches 3.5 to 4, often signaling cycle maturity. However, we may not reach a full 4 this cycle due to diminishing returns. Using a more conservative estimate of 3.5, we can begin to predict a more realistic peak.
Figure 2: The MVRV ratio view predicts that there is still room for further growth in the forecast period, reaching the historical 4+ or even a more conservative 3.5 target value to calculate the target price
Timing is just as important as valuation. By analyzing "BTC growth since cycle low", we found that previous Bitcoin cycles peaked at about 1060 days from the low. We are currently about 930 days into this cycle. If this pattern continues, the peak could come in about 130 days. Historically, FOMO (fear of missing out)-driven price increases have typically occurred at the end of a cycle, causing realized prices (a proxy for investors' average cost basis) to rise rapidly. For example, realized prices grew 260% in the last 130 days of 2017; they grew 130% in 2021. Assuming the growth rate is halved again due to diminishing returns, a 65% increase from the current realized price of $47,000 could bring it to about $78,000 by October 18.
Figure 3: Based on the peak speeds of previous cycles, this cycle is far from over
Combining the projected $78,000 realized price with a conservative 3.5 MVRV target gives us a potential peak price of $273,000 for Bitcoin. While this may seem ambitious, historical parabolic surges suggest such moves can occur in weeks rather than months. While the peak is more likely to be between $150,000 and $200,000, the math and on-chain evidence suggest higher valuations are at least possible. It is important to note that these models adjust dynamically, and if late-cycle market mania intensifies, the forecasts could quickly accelerate further.
Figure 4: Combining expected realized prices and possible MVRV targets to predict the peak of this cycle
in conclusion
Predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin is inherently uncertain, with too many variables to fully consider. What we can do is build a probabilistic framework based on historical precedent and on-chain data. Tools such as the MVRV ratio, terminal price, and Delta Vertex have proven their value in predicting market tops many times over. While the $273,000 target may seem optimistic, it is rooted in historical patterns, current network behavior, and cycle timing logic. Ultimately, the best strategy is to react to data rather than fixed price levels. Use these tools to refine your investment hypothesis, but remain flexible enough to profit when the broader ecosystem begins to signal a top.
