Original author: Mary Liu, Cody Feng
The US inflation data in May showed a milder sign than expected, bringing positive signals to risk assets. Specifically, the unseasonally adjusted consumer price index (CPI) recorded an annual rate of 2.4%, lower than the market's general expectation of 2.5%; the monthly rate was only 0.1%, also lower than the expected 0.2%.
Core inflation data (excluding volatile food and energy prices) also showed a similar slowdown trend: the annual rate was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%; and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was only 0.1%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.
After the report was released, the crypto market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Bitcoin once approached $110,000 during the day, Ethereum (ETH) rose 3% to $2,834, and XRP rose 1.8% to $2.32. The total market value of cryptocurrencies remained around $3.4 trillion in the past 24 hours. CoinGlass data shows that as of the time of writing this article, the 24-hour liquidation amount of the entire network reached $300 million, of which Ethereum liquidation amounted to about $100 million and Bitcoin liquidation amounted to about $37 million.
Big Whale Movement
As BTC rose and then fell, on-chain data also observed an increase in whale activity.
On June 11, the on-chain tracking platform Whale Alert discovered that a large amount of Bitcoin flowed into the US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. According to data provided by the tracking platform, in just about two hours, multiple anonymous whales transferred more than 3,165 Bitcoins (worth more than $347 million) to Coinbase through several transactions.
The largest transaction involved 738 BTC, and the remaining transactions were also large-value anonymous wallet transfers (such as 466 BTC, 464 BTC, 463 BTC, etc.).
It is worth noting that 510 BTC (worth about $56.1 million) were transferred from Cumberland, a well-known crypto trading company, to Coinbase Institutional, which generally indicates that whales may be trying to sell their tokens. Although the specific reasons for these transfers have not been confirmed, they may also be attempts by whales to rebalance their portfolios. However, considering the large volume and high repetitiveness of these transfers, as well as the participation of Cumberland and others, this is likely to be the action of large players, especially institutions.
Perhaps affected by the activity of this giant whale, Bitcoin fell below the $110,000 mark at the opening of the day and stabilized around $108,677 as of press time.
Trend and technical analysis
Data shows that the current funding rate in the Bitcoin contract market is very stable or low.
The author believes that this generally indicates that the current rebound is driven by investors' actual purchases of spot rather than by highly leveraged contract transactions. In the absence of high-leverage positions in the market, the risk of triggering large-scale sell-offs and sharp declines is low, so the currency price is more likely to continue to rise.
From the technical chart, Bitcoin opened higher by about 1% yesterday, with a price around 110,375 points. After opening, BTC fluctuated around this price for about 180 minutes, then began to slowly decline and hit an intraday low of 108,720 points around 11:33. Around 2:02 pm, BTC quickly rose and finally closed at around 110,455 points. On that day, a positive cross K-line with a long lower shadow was closed, with an increase of about 1.02%.
According to the daily trading channel model, Bitcoin is currently running above the red and green protection channels, indicating that the medium-term trend is still strong. The sentiment index is also slowly recovering with the rise in the price of the currency, indicating that market confidence is recovering.
From the 1-hour period K-line chart, the trading model monitoring shows that the short-term currency price is running above the white long and short lines, and the sentiment indicator is at a high level, and a top divergence pattern is about to form. This means that the probability of intensified market volatility in the short term is high, and there may be a trend of stepping back to 108,720 points (intraday low). It is necessary to focus on whether this low point will be broken.
The author believes that through the 1-hour K-line data analysis, many indicators are in the high zone, and the probability of intraday fluctuations is increasing. The focus needs to be observed whether the low point of 108,720 points will be broken. Through the daily K-line data analysis, BTC is running on the red and green protection channels, and medium-term long orders can continue to be held.
