Last Friday, there was good news at the macro level. The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April was significantly lower than expected. At the same time, the hourly wage growth rate also cooled, which strengthened the market's bets on the Federal Reserve's two interest rate cuts this year. U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, and the current two-year/ten-year yields are 4.791% and 4.474%, respectively.
On the other hand, the geopolitical crisis has eased somewhat. The Israeli Prime Minister said he was willing to suspend fighting in the Gaza Strip in exchange for hostages. If an agreement is successfully reached, it will be a boon to risk markets.
Source: Signalplus, Economic Calendar
Source: Investing
As risk market sentiment warmed up, digital currencies also received some great news: GBTC's Flow finally reversed and achieved positive inflows, which means that BTC shorts are weakening and selling pressure is weakening. From the perspective of coin prices, since Friday, the market has been gradually realizing the macro benefits and expectations of liquidity injections from the US dollar. BTC has risen from 59,000 to around 65,000, completely recovering the losses of the previous week.
Source: Farside Investors; TradingView
In terms of options, the increase in actual volatility in recent days has driven up the front-end implied volatility. The current IV levels of BTC and ETH are around 56% and 65%, respectively. ETH's overall Vol Premium is much higher than BTC. Its implied forward iv includes the uncertainty brought about by the US SEC's rulings on the VanEck Ethereum spot ETF (May 23) and the Grayscale Ethereum futures (May 30).
Source: Deribit (as of 6 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus
In terms of trading, the selling pressure of ETH's call options was strong in mid-May, mainly concentrated at 3600-C on 17 MAY 24 and 24 MAY 24. In terms of BTC, traders sold put options around 62000/61000 in the short term, showing their confidence in this rebound, and bought a large number of OTM call options on 31 MAY, optimistic about the upside of BTC this month.
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions, strong selling pressure on call options in mid-May
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus 123), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends. SignalPlus Official Website: https://www.signalplus.com
