Original author: SanTi Li, Feng Yu, Naxida
Time flies, and it has been almost 4 years since I last wrote a similar article. It is very gratifying to review the scene at that time, and 95% of it met expectations. Except for the aviation giant Boeing, which did not take off, as mentioned in the article in 2019-20, Bilibili ($19), BTC ($3800), Tiger $3, PDD ($19) reached the expected 5- 10 times, the subsequent $ACH, $UOS, $NEAR, $ALGO also gave 10-8 0x even greater surprises.
However, I also hope to improve my judgment through continuous self-reflection and summary, because compared to readers who read the article directly, as a participant who sees the ocean of information, sometimes it is interfered by various off-site factors. own initial judgment.
We like to put forward our opinions some time in advance, at a relatively low position or a relatively high position, and let time verify it slowly and silently. Real-time perspectives are often the most attractive, but they are also the most constantly involved in crises, which often require more energy and health. Many people are also experiencing health warnings. I hope everyone can stay healthy and happy in 2024. body and mind. I prefer to find the starting point and the end point, and choose to trust the driver and natural development for the middle road.
Closer to home, it has been more than two and a half years since the last similar article. Next, I will write down a few targets and core starting points that may be underestimated in my personal superficial knowledge:
1. Bitcoin （BTC）
● Basic introduction:
BTC was once used as an anti-inflationary product of the 2008 financial tsunami. It has been nearly 16 years since its birth in January 2009. The blockchain technology derived from its underlying logic technology has directly given birth to products such as Ethereum, ADA, SOL, AVAX, CFX, Algo and other underlying public chains.
Nowadays, BTCs own development attributes have further expanded its potential large-scale application scenarios such as Stacks, RGB and other development protocols. My ultimate expectation for the general direction of BTC is actually very simple. Simply as the new E-GOLD in the next few decades, the valuation will be very good. If coupled with the possible further explosion of ecological practical applications, it may gradually become one of the leading assets in the next century.
● Key to core activation:
- Halving in 2024, each block reward is 3.125, and the annual inflation is: 5256 0x 3.125 = 164, 250 pieces, accounting for approximately 0.782% of the total amount. And the inflation rate of around 0.78% is already lower than the annual inflation rate in most developed countries.
1. The U.S. SEC provides a fast channel for ETFs to enter the industry by bringing the next round of water storage funds.
2. Grayscale’s position swap and MGOT selling pressure passed
3. Traditional financial risks caused BTC holding companies to be forced to act as saviors and other selling pressures passed.
Pic 1: Comparison of inflation rates between BTC and China, the United States, Europe, and the world (BTC is halved in 4 years. Note: The inflation rate is more similar to horizontal and vertical lines rather than purely linear. The linear graph is only for aesthetics)
Figure 1 compares the inflation rates of BTC with those of major countries. The figure does not list the currencies of countries suffering from excessive hyperinflation, such as Zimbabwe, Argentina, and Turkey. In terms of expansion rate alone, BTC is indeed worthy of being a research value target for corresponding storage for these countries.
● Expected valuation: $200, 000, MC: 4.2 trillion US dollars. As the beginning of a new world, application scenarios are fully rolled out
Reminder: Here is an important reminder that the long-term expected valuation does not mean that the average trend will rise all the way from the current price to the left and right, but it may experience severe and large-scale fluctuations in the short term. Be sure not to use high prices. Leverage plays with long-term relationships. I write it here as a reminder.
2. Telegram Ime （Lime）& TON（TON）
● Basic introduction:
Ime Messenger is a special version of Telegram that integrates multi-chain wallet and other functions, allowing friends on Telegram to directly forward multi-chain assets such as BTC, ETH, AVAX, BNB, Polygon, Mantle, AVAX, etc. Functions such as Binance Pay, Twitter, and direct Google translation of TG conversations have been added and the overall layout and ease of use of Telegram have been optimized.
Important data such as Telegram account and chat history can also be used directly in the Ime version of Telegram without the need for a new account. Similarly, the chat history in the IME version will be automatically synchronized with the original Telegram version, making it easy to switch at any time. The Ime version itself is more like an aggregator that integrates the Web3 world into the TG ecosystem, and TONs role is to bias the chain ecosystem.
TON is a native public chain ecosystem developed on the basis of Telegram. As the inherited public chain project of TG’s original project party, it brings more development possibilities and diversification to Telegram’s localized ecological development.
● Core logic:
1. The number of users of the Ime version has increased from 2 million users to 10 million users in 3 years, an increase of 500%, and the friendly relationship with Telegram’s founding team allows Telegram’s 700 million users to seamlessly connect at any time with the latest multi-chain Token The group red envelope function uses Lime as the gas fee. If a more convenient model is optimized in the future, it will be of great benefit to the operation and promotion of the project. Imes multi-chain integration function can help project parties integrate into the telegram ecosystem more quickly. The current FDV of LIME only fluctuates between 5 M and 10 M, which is far lower than the valuation of many primary market projects.
2. As the underlying public chain native to TG, Ton’s operation level and marketing level are among the best in the market, and Telegram users can use it directly in the original version of TG, which reduces teaching costs. Although it cannot be multi-chained, the wallet is a dialogue It is a frame version of a single-chain wallet, but based on TON itself, there is enough room for imagination, and the current FDV of TON has exceeded 10 billion US dollars, which shows the markets expectations for telegram.
● Key to activation:
Ime Lime：
1. Since there are many hard-core technical personnel in Russia and Ukraine, it is necessary to join the core operation PR party to enhance the self-marketing ability of the project.
2. Further optimize TG group members to use the red envelope function to send various TOKEN as rewards to group members.
3. More functions to optimize TG are used
4. Russia’s further support and policies for blockchain applications
Ton：
1. SEC’s regulatory attitude towards official Telegram TON is further relaxed
2. Cooperation and output of SocialFi Killer-level projects on the chain
3. GameFi with TG as the entrance is further increased
● Expected valuation:
Lime: Current MC FDV: $5.7M, Expected FDV: $3B-$5B
TON: Current MC FDV: $10 B USD, expected FDV: $60 B
3. Conflux (CFX)
● Basic introduction:
Conflux is a Turing Award winner team, with Yao Ban from Tsinghua University serving as the technical consultant and underlying calculation support for the Layer 1 public chain. It is a public chain that creates a long-term development platform for infrastructure such as dApps, e-commerce, Web 3 and the Metaverse. The tree map consensus mechanism combines the Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithms. It is currently one of the three most successful projects among purely domestic projects that I personally think.
● Core logic:
Confluxs unique tree diagram consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, and the technology is driven by a technology-driven team. The fluency and convenience of use are similar to those of current highly valued blockchain projects such as SOL and ETH. It is quickly integrated with the development speed of mainstream Web3. It only needs to wait for further opening up and the number of users will become more active and it will have greater potential. Popular gameplay will also gradually be implemented on CFX.
● Key to activation:
1. Mainland China’s further support and liberalization of public blockchain applications and Metaverse
2. Further popularization of China’s Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan regions as pioneer pilots of public chains
3. Cooperation with more official companies such as CITIC and Xiaohongshu has been implemented, and the selling pressure of traditional capital has completely disappeared.
4. The development of Conflux itself gradually matures and officially supports BTC L2 smoothly.
● Expected valuation:
CFX Current MC FDV: Fluctuating around $0.9 B, Expected FDV: $36 B-$80 B
4. Opulous （OPUL）
● Basic introduction:
For music RWA+Defi projects, RWA has already implemented application cooperation with singers. Investors can use OPUL to participate in purchasing the copyright of some albums and earn a share of the album revenue of subsequent singers. NEW FEATURES Opulous OLOAN creates a unique bridge to RWA in the music industry. Fund musicians by staking USDC in a pool and earn extra on your staked USDC
OVAULT is a unique staking pool on the Opulous platform that allows you to stake USDC to access a diverse music library. Curated by Opulouss music experts, this library contains popular and well-performing songs.
By participating in OVAULT, you can enjoy the music library and get rewards. It’s also a way to participate in the music industry and profit from staking.
● Core logic:
The core music resources and connections behind the company are relatively rich, and dittos is also Boss Huang’s music cooperation company. Opulous is still at the forefront of controlling the pace of the market as a whole, and it can be regarded as one of the more proficient project parties on the Algorand and Arb chains. Private equity selling pressure has been completely released.
● Key to activation:
The further popularity of music applications and the actual income generated by high-profit artists have seen a wave
● Expected valuation:
OPUL current MC FDV: $50 M-100 M fluctuates around, expected FDV: $10 B-$30 B
5. Bilibili （Bili）
● Basic introduction:
Video creation and live broadcast platform, a two-dimensional holy land video platform, a platform where young people’s purchasing power is concentrated, has invested in a bunch of companies, resulting in poor financial results in recent years. So the stock price went from a new high to about to break, stop talking, cheers.
● Core logic:
1. Currently, it is the only platform in China that seems to be able to compete with YouTube.
2. Games may be able to catch up with the era of Web3’s domain entry
3. User stickiness is very high, but consumer rights are currently somewhat limited to TV series.
● Key to activation:
1. Encourage more original and creative educational videos. Most Chinese videos now are summary videos, and original ones are still much less than those on YouTube. If this wasteland can be activated, it will be a huge source of income for small websites. Many people are willing to pay for high-quality knowledge, but management needs to be stricter to prevent bad money from driving out good money.
2. The investment in the first two years begins to gradually generate exit returns.
3. Revise the business distribution. The current live broadcast business and game business are a bit strange mixed with the website.
● Expected valuation:
Bili current valuation: $3.8 B MC FDV, expected valuation 5 Years: $50-100 B
6. Avalanche / Polygon / Near / Algorand/ Solana
● Basic introduction:
The core Alt-L1 basic public chain underlying architecture, in which AVAX and Polygon play more like the sidechain role of Ethereum, Sol / Near / Algo are their own underlying architecture + compatible with EVM + BTC virtual machine or a separate project to add connections with Ethereum Workshop compatibility. Since each public chain has its own unique ecology, the public chain ecology in 2024 is more suitable for each chain to be separated into a large series. I won’t describe too much about the infrastructure of the chain here, otherwise it would take tens of thousands of words to write. Not finished.
● Core logic:
The security of L1s underlying architecture has tended to be perfected. Although there has been some debate about the security of Sols underlying architecture, there is no doubt that Solana is currently the largest ecosystem besides Ethereum, and even topped the list of popularity for a time. However, with the launch of the Ethereum Matryoshka doll series, the Ethereum ecosystem may also bring more ways to play. AVAX and SOL, Matic are perfect at playing the market rhythm, Near is also very convenient and average, Algo is the best at playing in the market, but its technical strength team and cooperation are the best.
Other L1 advancement methods are similar. Now they are all interfering with each other. The public chain ecosystem has also begun to experience some boring years and finally regained some vitality.
● Key to activation:
After the macroscopic black swans and minefields have completely exploded, the center of the new era has further moved to the fields of AI, blockchain, and information technology, and the desire to explore reservoirs and funds has further increased. Various new defi gameplay methods such as LSD, Restaking, and Rollup have further penetrated into major ecosystems and created a new rainbow (value + bubble).
● Expected valuation:
Future MC FDV:
AVAX: 150 B
SOL: 300 B
ALGO: 60 B-150 B (300 B----if team optimization and specified by US policy)
NEAR: 50 B-100 B
MATIC: 80 B-100 B (250 B----if designated by Indian policy)
7. Tiger Securities (Tiger)
● Basic introduction:
A very young brokerage with a good trading experience, very good data supply and chart UI, and sufficient data and financial reports.
● Core logic:
The valuation is low and the virtual license has been approved. If deposits from compliant tokens such as USDC are supported, the transaction volume and financial income may be greatly increased.
● Key to activation:
1. Further relaxation of domestic policies and support for compliance KYC
2. Overall recovery and water storage of financial markets
● Expected valuation:
Current FDV, 0.58 B, expected FDV: 10-20 B
8. Planetswatch （Planets）
● Basic introduction:
An environmentally friendly air sensor project that monitors air quality. It is a green project that sets up different sensor nodes to transmit air quality data in real time to obtain token rewards.
● Core logic:
1. The early valuations were high and the circulation rate was low. With the advent of the bear market and the gradual impact of inflation, prices have fallen sharply. This is a problem that all projects with low early circulation rates are prone to experience.
● Key to activation:
There is further emphasis on environmental infrastructure globally, and Eco-type projects have entered the blockchain field as a focus of discussion
● Expected valuation:
Current MC FDV: 2 M, expected FDV: 20 M-200 M
9. ContextLogic (Wish)
● Basic introduction:
Wish is an American e-commerce platform founded in 2010 by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang. Wishs parent company is ContextLogic Inc., headquartered in San Francisco, USA. The platform mainly sells cheap household items, clothing, jewelry, electronic products, toys, etc.
● Core logic:
In 2020, financial groups such as Goldman Sachs overestimated their expectations, leading to a flat push and falling to the edge of delisting risk. Prices are near lower, and recent market movements and activities have begun to recover, promoting more.
● Key to activation:
1. Further reliance on group buying, especially the expectation of cheap group buying among people with downgraded consumption.
2. If a new large institution enters the acquisition process
3. Financial reporting and business recovery
● Expected valuation:
Current MC FDV: 0.1 B, expected MC FDV: 2B-10 B
10. Waves Enterprises （West）
● Basic introduction:
Waves Enterprise is an enterprise-grade blockchain platform for building fault-tolerant digital infrastructure. As a hybrid solution, Waves Enterprise mainnet brings together enterprises, service providers and decentralized applications in a trustless environment, leveraging the benefits of public permissioned blockchains to cover a wide range of business use cases. Sidechains are used to build private infrastructure or hybrid infrastructure to store metadata on the mainnet. The platform is powered by Waves Enterprise System Token ($WEST), the native utility token for all network operations
● Core logic:
Enterprise-level public and private chain hybrid blockchain protocols may be more easily accepted by traditional enterprises
● Key to activation:
1. Russia further supports blockchain technology, and Russia’s traditional oligarchs and consortia respond to relevant policies
2. Further participation and popularization of traditional enterprises.
● Expected valuation:
Current MC FDV: 2-5 M fluctuations, expected MC FDV: 2B-5 B (20-50 B ---if designated by Russia)
Summarize:
This article analyzes the long-term potential value of some projects. Some have survived through the waves, and some have excellent fundamentals and concepts, but poor market operation capabilities and require talent. Therefore, they have potential, but it does not mean that they will definitely succeed. If you meet expectations, you may also suffer unexpected blows.
The entire world economy has not yet emerged from the quagmire. It can even be said that it is on the half-broken ice. The prosperity on the surface cannot cover up the core loopholes in the bones that have not yet been resolved. Some abscesses and tumors have not yet been treated, so at this time, even if the future is very bright for AI and blockchain, as an individual or an organization, it is best to improve some of your own principles.
For emerging public chains such as SEI, TIA and L2 as well as Restaking, LSD and other projects with diverse gameplay such as Altlayer, manta, dymension, edenlayer, zeta, etc., due to the generally longer lock-up time of this round of private equity capital, early valuations In fact, it is even more difficult to estimate. It is a great test of the responsible attitude and habits of the project party itself, because most of the Tokens are still in the hands of the project party. If the foundation keeps smashing the market in the early stage, the new project may also have a 2-year situation. However, it is also possible that a direct valuation like TIA becomes 1982 Lafite, and it will be difficult to estimate quickly in the future.
Regarding the development of the blockchain industry, I personally think it will be relatively bright in the next few years.But I still have to reiterate the warning at the beginning of the article: long-term expected valuation does not mean that all the way up from the current price point, it may experience violent and large-scale fluctuations in the short term. For example, it is like a sudden moment. , BTC returns to 1K US dollars within 3 days, and then returns to 4W. Although the probability is extremely low, if you can maintain a healthy position under such circumstances, then there will be no problem.
Be sure not to use high leverage to play long-term relationships. Try to touch as little or no contracts as possible, unless you are doing it for fun and you have enough self-discipline. DYOR is the most important way to maintain long-term investment health.
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice or financial advice. It is only the author’s feelings and opinions. I hope we can learn and make progress together.
