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1. The dangers of inflation:

The dangers of inflation:

Rising prices: Inflation causes prices to rise, which increases the cost of living and reduces people's purchasing power.

Economic instability: Inflation will lead to economic instability, increase investment risks, and may lead to a decline in corporate profits.

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Second, the dangers of deflation:

Dangers of deflation:

Falling prices: Deflation leads to falling prices, which can cause consumers to delay spending and corporate profits to fall.

Shrinking economy: Deflation can lead to a shrinking economy, rising unemployment, and slower economic growth.

Increased debt burden: Deflation can lead to increased debt burden, difficulty repaying debt, and increased risk of bankruptcy.

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● Gradually adjust the debt ceiling: Since the debt ceiling set by the United States is not particularly large, there is still room for gradual adjustment. If the debt ceiling is raised suddenly and substantially, it may cause the international market to further intensify concerns about the US fiscal situation, thereby exacerbating concerns about inflation. Therefore, the United States may need to gradually and steadily raise the debt ceiling to avoid market panic.

● Debt restructuring:Extending the term of debt, reducing the interest rate of debt, repaying old debt with new debt (refinancing, although this method can suspend the crisis but cannot solve the crisis), partial debt relief, debt reset, debt swap and other means. Although debt restructuring can help reduce debt quickly, it often occurs in a relatively crisis time, especially when it involves national debt, and it also involves the country's reputation and market risks.

Therefore, this method often occurs before and after a crisis, such as: ★Debt default/overburdened debt/economic crisis/reform occurs, and national income declines. Debt restructuring is used to ease economic pressure and release new space.

● Appropriate monetary policy:Central banks can control inflation by adjusting interest rates and the money supply, and the Fed needs to find a balance between controlling inflation and avoiding an overcooling of the economy. This may mean moderate interest rate hikes, which will increase borrowing costs, thereby reducing money supply and curbing inflation. However, the speed and extent of interest rate hikes need to be carefully controlled at this moment to avoid triggering market panic and debt default. The economic environment in China is very different from that in 2022, and it is not too much to describe it as walking on eggshells.

● Fiscal policy:The United States may need to carry out some fiscal policy reforms, including the government cutting unnecessary expenditures, reforming the tax system, increasing taxes, and finding new sources of income (whether it includes the protection of gray industries with rich oil companies or some small and medium-sized countries) fee increases, etc. are not sure).

● Promote economic growth:By boosting economic growth, it raises tax revenues for governments, which helps reduce debt burdens. This may require a range of policies, including investing in infrastructure, improving education and skills training, and promoting technological innovation.

● Structural reforms:Governments can increase the economy's growth potential and help address debt problems by implementing structural reforms to make the economy more productive and competitive.

● International cooperation:In today's globalization, inflation and debt problems often require international cooperation to solve. For example, countries can seek help from international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, or stimulate economic growth through international trade and investment. As a major country with the right to speak in the world economy, the United States can cooperate with other countries and international financial institutions to jointly deal with and share the inflation and debt crisis.

● social security system: The government can protect the most vulnerable groups in society and reduce the impact of inflation and debt problems on them by establishing and improving social security systems, such as pensions and medical insurance.

● divert attention: Increase the promotion of game industry, virtual industry, entertainment industry, digital industry and new reservoir industry, relatively weaken the harm brought by default risk and inflation risk, and transfer thinking to areas of relative spiritual happiness and abundance.

● Transfer conflict points:Transform internal contradictions into international and external contradictions. Although the latter two methods cannot solve the fundamental problem, they can relatively resolve the pressure and negative emotions. Thereby lowering the threshold and negative emotions to solve the problem. (Diverting attention and conflicting points can only be effective in the short term, and cannot solve long-term fundamental problems, so it can only be used as a temporary tactical means)

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4. Summarize the usage strategy:

Variety:Everything is constantly changing, and we need to adapt to this change, not resist it. Regarding current economic issues, we need to adapt to changes in the market and adjust our economic policies and strategies in a timely and rapid manner to adapt to the new economic environment. This change may be half a year, a month, a week, or even the next day. Go with the changes.

balance:Yin and Yang balance, everything and strategy has two sides. We need to work hard to find a direction that is beneficial to us. On the issue of inflation and the debt crisis, we need to find a balance point, both to control inflation and solve the debt problem. Or find the harmony or base point of deflation in the large inflation area, and find the stimulation area opposite to inflation in the deflation area, and push the surface with points to gradually reach equilibrium. This may require us to find a balance between monetary policy and fiscal policy.

Derivation:If a crisis is inevitable, but it is not possible to determine which one it is. We need to analyze future economic trends and derive adjustment strategies under different circumstances, so that we can prepare in advance, plan ahead, and avoid or mitigate the impact of economic problems.

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5. Trend speculation:

Mode 1:

Raise the debt ceiling, reduce expenditures, find new income channels (investigation/taxation/chasing/copying/prosecution/new business), etc., and issue new debt financing.

Suspension of interest rate hikes, inflation rebounds, continued interest rate hikes, the crisis is unbearable, debt pressure continues to increase, and it is difficult to maintain.

Partial defaults, credit damage, crisis strikes, thunderstorms, debt restructuring, and reduced burdens.

Restart the economy, multiple stimuli, enter a virtual, new expansion period, a new era.

Mode 2:

Release water directly, enter the era of inflation, and rely on new reservoirs to absorb water (virtual assets, metaverse, VR, AI, etc.)

Since people in mode 2 will only experience inflation directly, without stinging comparison, so I personally feel that the probability is not high, and I personally tend to speculate on the trend of mode 1.

The speculation here is entirely a relatively limited and narrow personal point of view, without any directional recommendation or guiding investment significance. I hope that the benevolent see the benevolent and the wise see wisdom, and jointly analyze the shocks before the new era that is coming.