Outlook of the overall market and the underlying public chain
In this cycle, we will see the crypto market mature more than previous cycles, and in those blockchain networks and protocols that perform well, the value narrative and fundamental elements will play a greater role. So it becomes more and more important to be an active early user so that you can experience each platform and really develop a tangible sense of which ones are better or worse. Plus, you'll be rewarded frequently for your active participation in each network. Many airdrops over the past year have brought in 4-6 figure returns, depending of course on individual contributions - think back to the UNI / 1INCH / dYdX airdrop, for example. This year, we’ve seen more cryptocurrencies being legitimized (invested) by traditional financial institutions than ever before, driving a massive influx of money into the cryptocurrency space. These investors, previously outside the crypto space, are selective and will decide which long-term bets to make. When these institutions allocate funds to crypto assets other than BTC, they need a process to evaluate the relevant crypto networks and determine which has the greatest advantage.
One of the reasons I think underlying public chains will outperform all other altcoins this year is because they are one of the easiest ways to bet on the decentralized future of smart contract systems. All decentralized applications (DApps) will run on top of these underlying blockchain networks, and it is far more difficult to sift through individual lending protocols or decentralized exchanges (DEXs) than to bet on these underlying networks many. You might think that the overall expected future value of these networks is much higher than that of Bitcoin (BTC), which is primarily used as a store of value. From the perspective of technical analysis, in my opinion, the breakthrough of the multi-year range of the ETH/BTC currency pair and the formation of a round top trend chart consistent with it are the main trends of this year, and the market is showing the future direction. This is the only cycle so far where BTC has not hit an all-time high. As ETH has outperformed BTC over the past year, other L1 networks such as Solana, Avalanche, Terra (Luna), Fantom, and Harmony have also significantly outperformed Ethereum. These networks are newer and less battle-tested, but they are all currently operating as faster, cheaper smart contract platforms that are getting a lot of money from hedge funds and other institutions and investors betting on their future success. funds. SBF, the founder of FTX, leads this trend as an advisor to Solana. Due to his previous close ties to traditional financial circles and his enormous influence as CEO of FTX/Alameda Research, his name carries weight in influencing high net worth individuals + traditional funds. In contrast to the generally negative view of cryptocurrencies held by most traditional financial firms in 2017, PYTH's list of partners alone makes it clear that public opinion has shifted dramatically. One of the most high-profile examples of traditional financial institutions (tradFi) getting into crypto is Jump Capital, which recently launched their own separate crypto fund arm, and they have even stated that they have been actively involved in PYTH as well as other blockchains such as LUNA ) governance. There are likely plenty of other funds like Jump Capital that are either waiting for the right opportunity to get involved, or quietly rolling up their sleeves behind the scenes. Each L1 public chain has its own early investors and powerful founders who are committed to building their own ecosystem: AVAX has Emin + 3AC, Terra Luna has Do Kwon + Novo. I think that we will continue to see new capital and new highly capable developers entering the crypto space in the next few years, and as the dollar capital and talent pool grows, we will see a combination of different smart contract platforms. A robust, thriving ecosystem from which users will be able to choose freely.
With that in mind, I think the base currency should be ETH and the trades should focus on outperforming ETH. If you do anything on-chain (which should form the majority of your transactions), you need to use ETH as your starting point. When buying NFTs, altcoins, and "bridge" assets, you should ensure that the performance outperforms holding ETH. Comparing the altcoin space in 2021 to the altcoin space in 2017 doesn't seem to me to make much sense as the value back then was minuscule compared to what it is now. Previously you needed BTC to buy any altcoin on any exchange, and the only DEX we were using at the time was etherdelta. The altcoin ecosystem is much more complex now than it was 4-5 years ago, which is why the ALT/ETH chart is more important than ALT/BTC in my opinion.
Personally I think BTC is now the leading safe haven asset in my portfolio because I think its volatility will continue to trend down as it grows in size and its market cap gets closer to something like gold . At the same time, institutions currently involved in investing in BTC are trying to accumulate BTC for a long time. We will usher in a slow rise, not a parabola like 2017, which is in the best interest of institutions. Whenever retail derivatives traders experience a liquidation frenzy, we will continue to see market corrections in BTC. ETH and others, I still consider a trade, while holding BTC can be the best choice for this part of my portfolio when I want to reduce risk and profit from long positions. BTC is also very suitable for gauging the extent of the pullback in the overall market, because it is the easiest crypto asset to use as a hedge asset, and whenever BTC sells off, the sell-off frenzy of a large number of altcoins is more ferocious. BTC has no competitors as a hard currency, so BTC will always continue to grow with the growth of encrypted assets, even if it does not lead other cryptocurrencies in terms of innovation. You should always segregate your BTC stacks from active trading stacks that you never touch, and trade by accumulating your favorite L1 coins based on your personal risk appetite. These assets are relatively risky, because there have been many competitors of Ethereum in the past few years, but now their influence has been seriously weakened compared to four years ago, for example, TRON/DRGN/EOS. Due to FTX/SBF/Alameda's lasting influence, I personally think Solana is the best choice after ETH, but I think this is subjective. The main focus of an altcoin should be looking at its ALT/ETH pair, and when trading altcoins in each L1 ecosystem, you should study those ALT/L1 charts carefully. For example, many SPL tokens in the Solana ecosystem underperformed SOL throughout the year.
Over the next quarter, I expect this trend to continue as these L1 smart contract platforms close the gap with Ethereum in terms of users and the amount of funds locked in the network. Currently, the market leaders in this category of L1 (SOL/AVAX/LUNA/FTM/ONE) are up 5-10x from their lows in July, while ETH is lagging behind. In the short term, I think SOL has run a bit too aggressively, while LUNA has recently been in the range of its all-time highs from earlier this year. It is expected that Solana will form a new consolidation band in this range, while other currencies will start a new trend. If we do have a period of sideways L1 altcoins with ETH outperforming, I would expect developer activity/user activity/total lockup (TVL) on L1 altcoin networks to continue to trend upwards. If this were to stop abruptly for any reason, I would personally re-evaluate the arguments that these coins would outperform in the medium to long term. Among the existing L1, Terra Luna and ONE may have the strongest upside in the short term, while AVAX is the strongest Ethereum competitor based on the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).
Prospects for benchmark currencies Bitcoin and Ethereum
I am bullish on both BTC and ETH for the next quarter, with both bouncing off their June lows for most of the summer and breaking out upwards in July in Q3. Over the past month, we have seen the first sharp pullback since a rally in late June, and we expect that we will form a macro higher low in the near term before pushing to new highs by the end of the year.
With the approval of the ETF, there are potential catalysts for BTC, but with the value proposition validated by various types of institutional players at this point, I don't think the near-term price impact will be as dramatic as it was in 2017. Personally, I think we could have lost 30,000 over the summer due to fundamental events like China's policy, crackdown on BTC mining/trading activity, and fear of price peaks at the time that led to massive sell-offs and outflows. Dollar lows. The adjustment of the geographical distribution of BTC mining activities should be positive in the long run, because this activity tends to be more decentralized and dispersed to regions that are not subject to regulatory restrictions. If we see more policy decisions similar to those in El Salvador, this could be a major bullish catalyst. From a technical analysis point of view, the price of BTC will hold the range of ~38,000-40,000 US dollars, and break through the high point of the range first. ~40,700 US dollars is the highest daily closing price of the three-month range in summer. I think the lows are in place, but I wouldn't be surprised to start the quarter with a dive to $36K-37K. As long as we don't get a weekly close below the range high ~$42k-$43k, I'm betting on continued gains and new all-time highs over the next few months.
Ethereum has implemented the EIP-1559 proposal upgrade, and its next major catalyst, the merger of the mainnet with the beacon chain and the plan to move to the proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, is delayed until the second quarter of 2022, but it is becoming clearer Surprisingly, ETH is the primary currency of the internet. You need ETH to buy NFTs, trade on DEXs, make deposits with all lending protocols, etc. Although Ethereum faces competition from other L1s, what we see is that the overall user base of cryptocurrencies continues to grow, rather than ETH users leaving Ethereum for other L1s. The bottleneck of high gas fees is a major obstacle for retail investors to embrace Ethereum, but the development of L2 solutions is quickly solving this problem. Even without these L2 solutions, many long-term ETH users are currently rich, and Gas fees are just a drop in the bucket for them. From an investment point of view, other L1s do have more room for upside, but because they have smaller plates and have less actual combat testing, they need to take more risks to get more returns, but Ethereum Definitely not going away anytime soon. I am bullish on ETH/BTC in the medium and long term, because I think the ceiling of the smart contract platform is higher than the upper limit of BTC as a store of value. I use ETH every day and I personally use very little BTC.
The DeFi Prospect of Ethereum Ecosystem
All major DeFi blue-chip tokens have continued to decline in value against ETH since early March, when ETH once again hit its all-time highs from 2017. The market has made it clear that the valuations of these networks are not representative of their current usage, and DeFi’s underlying network (ETH) is undervalued in comparison. Many ETH-DeFi altcoins and other laggards have failed to make new all-time highs, or even breach highs from June. We ushered in the first "Summer of DeFi" last year, when the popularity of platforms such as AAVE, COMP, and Uniswap really exploded. DeFi-related tokens were the newest altcoins on the market at the time, which is the main reason why they performed so well. DeFi did not exist on other smart contract platforms other than Ethereum at the time, but now, there are DeFi on multiple different chains, and in many cases these L1 have EVM compatibility, which may be the reverse of these DeFi assets. A value narrative for ETH’s downtrend, as their usage is likely to increase as new capital enters the DeFi space. These tokens are now back near year-to-year lows against ETH. In addition to DeFi blue chips, there are many new innovations in DeFi that come from completely new protocols, such as OHM/SPELL. I think the biggest strength of ETH-DeFi lies in these opportunities, and then the decentralized derivatives space. As some are cracking down on crypto trading, and many other non-KYC exchanges are lowering their withdrawal limits or enforcing KYC, we will see a flow of users from centralized exchanges (CEX) to on-chain transactions. dYdX has already demonstrated the emergence of this trend, with decentralized perpetual contract trading volumes comparable to some CEXs with good liquidity. DPX is another decentralized alternative dedicated to building an options platform. There are now platforms such as Mango Markets and PsyOptions on Solana. User growth on all these platforms should accelerate in the coming months and into 2022.
DeFi tokens have been acting very well as a hedge against other long/spot positions, but as we enter this new multi-chain phase (EVM DApps can be deployed across blockchains), this trend may soon be announced Finish. As I said before, I think the trend will be: new institutional capital entering the crypto space, betting on the long-term success of DeFi + smart contracts, and among the options available, the best revolving bets are on alternative L1 tokens. The market value is much smaller than that of ETH, and its current performance is better than that of Ethereum, but it is not as secure.
For hedging options, it's now better to look for weaker L1+ smaller communities that don't have as much capital coming in, rather than ETH-DeFi assets. As the alternative L1 captures the market share of the new crypto entrants and gradually eats away at ETH's market dominance, I think this will continue to be the best deal.
If investing in ETH-DeFi tokens, I think it's better to focus on newer protocols (that provide value to users that didn't exist before) + focus on current market trends, the current trends in EVM are multi-chain/"bridge" projects and de Centralized derivatives instead of blindly buying so-called DeFi “blue chips”.
NFT Market Outlook
In my opinion, NFT is the most interesting market segment, because they attract a lot of interest from people who have no crypto background at all, let people outside the crypto community join cute digital pictures + chain games, than explain P2P lending and finance The advantage of iterating on system updates is much easier. I see four major trends here: on-chain and generative art with historical value, avatar NFT communities + companies entering the space, traditional artists and photographers selling individual works, and on-chain gaming.
From a purely historical point of view, the crypto natives gave high value to the earliest and most influential works on the chain (such as Punks / ArtBlocks), which was the springboard for others to have a strong interest in NFT at the end of last year. Since Ethereum is the first smart contract platform, from the perspective of traceability and early community, as the encryption field grows, the first batch of NFTs on its network will maintain a high value. I'm curious to see if this trend also applies to other alternative L1 public chains that have just launched their first batch of NFTs on their platforms. Solana, Fantom, AVAX, Harmony, and others now have some NFT projects and associated NFT marketplaces. Early adopters who have been using these platforms as their ecosystem of choice may see projects on these platforms as valuable in the same way that the Ethereum crowd favors projects like Punks. Looking at the generative art category, it is clear that Art Blocks is still the dominant platform even with the increased cost of minting. Then there will be something as popular as Fidenza, especially as the number of generated artists grows over time.
Probably the most popular trend is retail-focused avatar NFT projects. We’ve seen projects like the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) take off and how it has attracted the attention of sports superstars and others who have nothing to do with cryptocurrencies. We have also seen that many traditional companies are trying to use NFT for their own marketing. Events like Visa’s purchase of a Punk and virtual pet gaming station Neopets launching a collection of classic characters on Solana are just the beginning of this trend as more and more companies finally see the value in building online communities. In my opinion, NFT collectibles are by far the best way to lead a community of users, because there is a lot more concrete engagement than sending people an email list or getting people to buy something in traditional marketing. When you build a community where everyone holds NFTs, it's much easier to assign value to those people, and they'll also have more money invested in the community. We've seen projects continue to roll out 10,000 NFTs each of their own, and companies will get more creative with how they use NFTs for marketing. The main hurdle to this trend, though, is getting new users access to crypto wallets, a user experience problem that's easily fixed. In this upcoming quarter, I think the leading head picture (PFP) projects, such as Punks / BAYC / Cool Cats / SMBs, and other projects will continue to perform well, but the most valuable may be found in the dust from the middle echelon projects Pearls, whose works have the opportunity to obtain higher prices in the re-pricing of the market. I am most bullish on Creatures because I like Danny Cole, the 21-year-old New York-based artist who founded the project, and their tremendous efforts so far to provide a good experience for coin holders. It seems that Cole's long-term vision for the project plan is just his art An extension of the work into the digital world. 0N1 Forces is still my personal favorite from a visual standpoint, and judging by the Discord channel, the team also plans to build the community through in-person events as well as airdrops to token holders. Generally speaking, the token performance of these PFP projects really depends on how these projects create value for token holders and how to engage the community. On the other hand, there have always been a lot of scam projects in the NFT space that are purely for the money, since it's so easy for people to mint anything. Please actively participate in discussions on Discord and other social media, it should help you identify the quality of the project, but it is best to not act rashly for the first week or so, and carefully observe the development of the project in the market. I'm really interested to see how these Metaverse worlds are built and the possible collaborations between teams, projects that do a good job of these and create a cohesive experience will have a huge advantage. Right now I only see planning roadmaps, but over the next year or so we should see which projects create value in this space.
Chain games combine NFT and Play-2-Earn ecosystems, and have also attracted many new users to the crypto community. The first team to successfully recreate the mythology of gaming platforms like Roblox (the world's largest multiplayer online creation game) or Fortnite, while also integrating a system that allows users to earn money while playing, will be the most successful so far One of the encrypted DApps. As game developers move into this space, platforms like Solana and AVAX that allow for many cheap microtransactions and high throughput should have an advantage here. Funds are offering nine-figure incentive programs for hackathons to entice developers to build, which should accelerate the transition of high-quality software development engineers into the crypto space. The chain game Axie Infinity has achieved great success in the Philippines and is currently the most profitable altcoin in this field. It is definitely the market leader in the trend of the metaverse, and you should pay close attention to the trend nodes or mergers and acquisitions integration dynamics in this industry. I think October will see metaverse ecosystem tokens start to quickly regain momentum, and AXS staking will be a huge catalyst. Parallel NFT card game is another frontrunner in this space, although their game has not yet officially launched. Their work really mixes well with the art, and they've done a great job of cultivating the community so far, with a well-segmented system that's great for user engagement and competition. In addition, their team has also attracted famous investors, such as Chad Hurley from Youtube and so on. Other possible early winners include the likes of Star Atlas and Aurory, but gameplay isn't clarified yet, and we can't really know the specifics. I have a list of small-cap projects that I need to research more before I can post my long-term views (ILV/PYR/RAINI/YGG and a few others). To get the most value out of these games, I think you have to get in early "before the market is convinced they're going to be successful" and you buy assets at the best discounts when people are skeptical.
It is also an important trend worthy of attention that traditional artists launch their own NFT projects. I already mentioned Danny Cole's Creatures, but there will be many more projects like this. Selling art through paper media is much more difficult than selling NFTs, where everything is easily accessible digitally. I don't have much to predict about this trend, since I don't know much about traditional art, but I do think that counter-trend gimmicks will fade over time. It seems to be a knee-jerk reaction when people see something they don't understand for the first time.
Noteworthy fourth quarter investment portfolio allocation
My core position in October will be LUNA, because its Columbus-5 network upgrade will be the catalyst for its currency price to take off, and I will also bet on Axie, the leader in the metaverse/gaming field. L1 outperformance and NFTs are the two main trends this year, so funds allocated there are higher than other areas.
The other funds are mainly invested in LP income cultivation and some specific market segments. BTC and ETH will move slowly so mostly a Scalping strategy rather than holding long volatility until I don't think there are higher beta returns elsewhere. Once ETH regains ground around $3600, I think it will hit a new all-time high soon. BTC still faces a lot of resistance in the $55,000-58,000 box it needs to break through, so I will look for opportunities to enter the market that are about to rewrite the high point of the box in this range. Once the $58,000 point is breached, I fear ALT/BTC will underperform and start driving price discovery.
From a technical analysis point of view, LUNA has been consolidating above the historical high since March for about 40 days, and has risen about 6 times from the bottom of the summer low. Once Columbus-5 goes live, and every other project in the ecosystem kicks in, I expect it to break out upwards.
Axie is in a similar situation and has been consolidating for two months after an initial push. During the pullback about a week ago, it retested the highs from July and bounced back strongly.
My LP yield farming/side staking is spread across multiple chains, maintaining liquidity is one of the important reasons to move funds quickly when the best opportunities arise. Two major recent examples are $TEDDY on AVAX and $JEWEL on Harmony, and it's easier to find such opportunities if you're already following those ecosystems.
For BTC and ETH, a stronger confirmation of the bottom would bring a breakout above $45k/$3100.
Overall view on the market: Expect slow uptrends for benchmarks like Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins with strong fundamental catalysts outperform other altcoins, while dinosaur-level altcoins and others fail to deliver value Coins continued to underperform. The ideal rotation would be to put LUNA/Axie into price discovery in October, switch to the benchmark currency thereafter, and then recreate the Solana position as the main holding asset by the first quarter of next year.I don't know as much about the market cycle nodes of NFTs as I do about benchmark and altcoins, so I just hold those NFTs that I think are undervalued until the market reprices them.
I will also continue to pay close attention to the merger of Ethereum, because it will become a catalyst for ETH to outperform other L1s, and may repeat the wave of ETH in April-May 2021.
View project value from a micro perspective
L1 currency
LUNA
Columbus-5 Network Upgrade: September 29-30
Integration with IBC and all other blockchains in the Cosmos ecosystem will be achieved at that time
Integrate Ozone Insurance
Integrate Wormhole to create a "bridge" between Solana and Luna
All LUNAs used to mint $UST will be destroyed
The general theory is that UST will be used more on multiple chains, which will bring deflation to LUNA. After the Columbus-5 upgrade, many new projects will be launched in the Terra LUNA ecosystem, which will attract new users. Using Terra and Wormhole Bridge, it is easy to connect these projects and users. In my opinion, the project is currently not that popular in the western hemisphere as its main community is in the eastern hemisphere, but that should change in the next few months.
SOL
Not my primary holding at the moment as I think other assets have more upside, but my personal overall trading metric is to aim for outperform Solana as it has been the market leader all year. I think this strong momentum will continue once Solana completes its recent integration. The catalyst that could spark a rally in the near term is the integration of the EVM and the conclusion of the current hackathon.
Solana NFT is also doing very well. Most of SOL's recent rally has happened after its all-time highs, which I think is a good thing for people to funnel gains back into the ecosystem. Solana Monkey Business is definitely the leader in this market right now, but there are many other projects being launched all the time. I don't keep track of most of the new Solana NFT projects, but paying close attention to what's going on on Twitter and what's trending the most in the market is a good way to determine which projects are the most promising.
The development of blockchain games developed on Solana is very promising, which is why I think Aurorians will be one of the best bets.
From a technical analysis point of view, while BTC is holding its position, the price of SOL has not retreated further, and will consolidate above $150 before rebounding upwards. If SOL continues to decline, this will be a good spot long opportunity, but given the strong investor focus on SOL, it is unclear whether we will get this opportunity.
I think there will be a consolidation around October, but you need to keep an eye on SOL because you don't want to miss its market start by ignoring it.
AVAX
Since mid-August, the performance of the AVAX coin price and micro-cap projects in the AVAX ecosystem has been very strong. JOE has been a top performer and is up about 100x from his lows at the time. With the launch of the liquidity mining program with AAVE, AVAX and JOE should continue to trend upwards, but I think LUNA has more advantages than AVAX at the moment. In my opinion, AVAX is definitely the first camp blockchain for EVM DApp at present, so users can use it easily and developers can easily transplant it, which is a very powerful factor that promotes the rise of its currency price. Even with the launch of Arbitrum, I don't think there will be any major project churn on the AVAX chain. Whether zk rollup will change this is well worth watching, but if the ETH L2 solution doesn't have a significantly different user experience than AVAX, then I don't think the introduction of rollup will create a bear market for AVAX. I hold a small portion of AVAX and look forward to profiting from new ecological releases.
Teddy Cash, one of the new lending protocols on AVAX, has been doing well for the past week or so, and I don't think the coin is still on the radar of the masses as it only has a market cap of around $25 million or so. In this project, users can use AVAX as collateral to borrow their stable currency TSD, and there are currently some LP income farming farms in progress.
Harmony / $ONE
Same high performance and short latency as AVAX / SOL / FTM, but the visibility is small and transparent. Equipped with a functional cross-chain bridge and compatible with EVM, what Harmony lacks is community development and project development. This makes me feel that ONE is very similar to SOL in early February, when the Solana blockchain was fast, but there was only one DApp on it: Raydium. A few weeks ago, Harmony launched a $300 million ecosystem fund to spur development and encourage builders, so expect to see more projects pop up soon. DeFi Kingdoms DEX was one of my most lucrative September bets, the team has communicated future goals and has been effectively releasing updates. Aside from the exchange/yield farming utility use case, it's the only DEX I've seen that does a good job of creating a benchmark metaverse world for users. I'm not going to leave the Jewel / ONE yield farming farm for now, I want to wait and see how they develop games and how NFTs interact with the entire ecosystem.
Layer 0
ATOM
decentralized exchange
decentralized exchange
dYdX
Very simple theoretical design, attracting funds migrated from centralized exchanges, and is currently the most profitable derivative DEX;
JOE
Has become one of the best automatic market makers (AMM), and its market value will approach UNI & SUSHI in a short period of time;
OSMO
More like a small and unknown project, but as the main AMM on Cosmos, it works well and should get more use as people learn more about IBC;
NINJA
Micro disk, Solana DEX / NFT / chain game, if the team executes well, its market value ceiling is unlimited;
DPX
Decentralized options protocol, currently in the testnet stage, but I don't think they have much competition in this sector;
Considering that its market cap is still only $100-200 million, it is still a good revolving investment target
Astroport [coming soon]
The Columbus-5 upgrade will be the main AMM for the LUNA platform, which is not yet available.
Multichain/Bridge Project
SYN
Users in this space are currently chasing the best opportunities on different chains, and a fast and easy-to-use "bridge" will be a very useful weapon;
Synapse is one of the few ways to quickly get funds back from Arbitrum, and they also have features to interact with other chains + more builds to come;
SCRT
Secret Network is the first smart contract protocol I have seen on the mainnet that focuses on privacy. Their upcoming Supernova protocol update will enable IBC integration, similar to LUNA's Columbus-5 update. Its price chart is close to its hoarding low range, so the main force has started to build positions here, it should be a while before people start talking about this token.
The project has tested the "bridge" from ETH to SCRT, and the "bridge" works fine, but they don't provide any base currency when bridging, so you have to get it from somewhere before you can unhide your assets.
REN
Another "bridge" project, the principle is equivalent to SYN
Hedging / Shorting Items
DOGE
It has always been one of the benchmark tokens with the weakest performance. The focus of retail investors has shifted from meme currency to NFT. This decline trend can also be seen in Dogecoin on other chains.
BNB
The rise of other L1s has made many people forget BSC, BNB is still actively trading in Pancake Swap / Bakery Swap, but not as much as before, because BSC was the only cheap Ethereum alternative chain at that time;
I personally strongly believe that the decline of BNB relative to SOL/LUNA/AVAX will continue for the rest of the year.
MATIC
Similar to the theory of shorting BNB, other reasons include Arbitrum and other upcoming ETH L2 solutions in full swing.
Yield Farming Opportunities
JEWEL / ONE
The main DEX on Harmony has not received much attention so far. They also plan to issue NFT and create chain games using ONE;
Most of the returns are locked until next July to offset the high APR;
The APR of each epoch is constantly decaying, and the project is still in the early stage;
One of the most creative DEXs I've personally seen, with a first-mover advantage + a different experience than other similar projects.
OSMO / ATOM
Osmosis is one of the first chains to connect with the rest of IBC, Gravity DEX/mBridge will be able to connect IBC to Ethereum and other ecosystems by the end of Q4;
The first major AMM on Cosmos, likely to be a major beneficiary of Luna IBC connectivity in the Cosmos ecosystem.
NINJA / SOL
Personally, I am very optimistic about the Ninja team, because they have built an excellent DEX and are working hard towards building an NFT market + integrated chain games.
The team definitely has a solid roadmap, but as a small-cap asset, I think its upside potential is decent.
Earning double rewards in Orca and Ninja, the pool should continue for about 365 days without worrying about impermanent losses, since the token pair is NINJA/SOL instead of NINJA/USDC.
Stablecoin Yield Farming
Rari Capital USDC Pool
23% APR
Deposit $USDC and get returns according to its income aggregation strategy
Anchor on Luna
~20% APR
Deposit $UST
OHM
I understand this project is really late, but they've put about $150 million into their coffers and have a user community committed to the long term;
Since its market cap is now over $1 billion, I think it will be hard for most people (like me) to ignore this project, and its token will continue to accelerate upwards on this basis;
It will be interesting to see how the Olympus Pro works when it launches, but honestly, this project will fly higher
The only bearish factor for this one: its market capitalization premium to the vault's total assets is now quite large.
Unilateral pledge
xJewel
DPX
NFT
Punks
Given that ETH is doing well, Punks should continue to rise. You probably won’t get 100x more for buying these Punks anymore, but they’re essentially like buying real estate on Ethereum;
If buying these Punks at this point, I personally think you should plan to hold them for years.
BAYC
Obviously, it is the second largest project after Punks in the NFT sector. From the perspective of return on investment, it is somewhat similar. If you are willing to take a greater risk to mine middle echelon projects, you may get more benefits, but BAYC will Value is maintained, there is no doubt about it.
SMB
The most popular NFT on Solana, I think its pricing will eventually be close to BYAC;
I think that based on the current price, the short-term rise will slow down a bit, because its floor price has just changed from 50 → 250 SOL, but from the perspective of the entire NFT landscape, it is the most reliable choice;
As the main PFP NFT on Solana, its price is undervalued compared to similar projects on Ethereum.
Creatures
Has a strong community with excellent connections with real-life artists;
The ratio of the number of token holders to the total number of tokens ~55% + Celebrities such as "Shark" O'Neill join the community;
Compared with the floor price of other projects of the same quality ~3 ETH, its price is still relatively cheap;
I personally hold some of these rares and don't really plan to sell anytime soon, seeing these as the most upside potential of the PFP programs right now.
Loomlock NFT
Loom's ecological project;
Expecting the project to have staying power and more than just JPGs to be turned into NFTs, I think Loom will do a great job of cultivating the community and adding value;
I got some Loomlock NFTs through minting and will probably buy more on the secondary market.
0N1 Forces
This is my favorite NFT project in terms of aesthetics, and I may keep some of the avatars for a long time;
I'm not very interested in trading 0N1 Forces NFTs, but there are some other NFTs for this project outside of my PFP, and if their plates get huge, I might move into other smaller projects;
The first offline face-to-face meetup for 0N1 token holders in Los Angeles in the first week of October;
Its works will be airdropped in the fourth quarter.
Bit Umans / Ancestral Umans / Portalheads on FTM
Taking a cheap bet on one of the first NFTs released on Fantom, not a lot of faith in these projects, but considering there isn't much competition out there, think the ROI is decent.
Crypto Seals on AVAX
I minted a few of these NFTs when people first came together, the same philosophy as the operation on FTM, one of the first spawned projects on AVAX, and cost almost nothing to mint.
Gen 0 Heroes on Harmony
These will launch alongside the DeFi Kingdoms DEX, hope to mint some when they come out as they will also allow you to unlock yield farming rewards earlier and will be the first notable NFTs on Harmony.
Arweave
Arweave is the best NFT infrastructure project, and its decentralized data storage architecture will support many future NFT projects that want to store data elsewhere than AWS or other centralized services. Its market cap is still undervalued compared to other data storage projects like Filecoin.
other
other
I don't know as well about most NFT projects as I do about the altcoin ecosystem, so more research needs to be done on this area, and a closer look: How projects airdrop to users and start new iterations
For examplehttps://cyberkongz.medium.com/the-next-leap-in-cyberkongz-evolution-e8ea8a064b26
metaverse project
Axie Infinity
AXS is currently an unrivaled leader in the chain gaming field. It was the first altcoin to rebound strongly from the June lows and has been consolidating for several months before prices bottomed out in the rest of the market.
Theirs is still delivering value to users, and is still the most lucrative even compared to protocols that include all DeFi altcoins. Their upcoming staking should be a great catalyst, paving the way for the next trend move.
The main risk with AXS is how it handles scaling to more users as its popularity explodes, and I wanted to dig a little deeper into what their plans are for this.
Vulcan
PYR is one of the low market cap gaming projects I have researched. To be honest, I haven't researched it as deeply as I have done with other games, but they are building a complete NFT DApp ecosystem and NFT market. I've played a few of these games and the charts look great from a technical analysis perspective.
Overall thoughts on next year
Question 1: How likely is it that all assets will plummet by 90% and there will be a multi-year bear market?
Personally, I think this is less likely to happen as cryptoassets become more popular as we see more money/users flowing into crypto than ever before. In my opinion, there is so much stranded funding and active development that it's impossible for prices to go down and down for years in a row.
We've seen derivatives premium/open interest (OI) overheating + bubble burst this year, these are all down about 70+%, but then we just trade sideways for three months before picking up again. Because altcoin assets go parabolic at such a rapid pace, price retracements are often quite steep.
This has not happened at any other stage since the inception of cryptocurrencies, which are now receiving a lot of public attention, so I believe that 2022 will not revisit the lows set in 2021. A once-in-a-decade hit like the COVID-19 pandemic would have to happen for that to happen, leading to a severe crash. I believe a -70% retracement + sideways again is possible if the market gets overheated again, but I think that's unlikely until a bigger move up. Due to SBF's public profile, and his repeated aggressive emphasis on wanting to work with regulators, FTX would be a central topic and draw attention to the public eye, which would be a huge boon for cryptocurrencies, which is why I think SOL is better than other Another reason why L1 has an advantage. It doesn't make sense to compare 2017 with 2021 now, from a development perspective, a public perception perspective, an institutional perspective, or a regulatory perspective.
The maturation of crypto as an asset class means that as long as the economy is healthy, crypto assets should eventually start to rise along with the S&P 500. Crypto has much more upside than any other asset class currently, but even if its size has Catching up with other asset classes, crypto can still post steady growth as we have seen with the likes of the FAANGs. I believe we will see more and more institutional/hedge funds entering the crypto space as people look to reap profits beyond traditional markets, and professionals charged with investing for high net worth individuals will inevitably be asked: why haven't they To allocate funds to cryptocurrencies, this means: the volatility of encrypted assets should start to narrow in the next few years.
Question 2: What will be the killer app of the 2020s? Amazon in the 2010s, Facebook in the early 2000s, what would an application look like in the metaverse? How to attract millions of non-crypto users?
This is one of the questions I often refer back to as it helps me frame ideas in a longer time frame. My bet is that the influx of users into crypto over the next decade will bring about a major shift in the way users interact with technology.
For example, a Metaverse/Social Network where people have a public address with all their NFT/Art/Digital Land/Flex items; a private address that can easily be used as a savings account, utilizing stablecoins like USDC/UST Yield generation; a private address for DEX transactions/other transactions. All connected through an undifferentiated user experience where people can message each other. In this regard, the questions worth thinking about are:
How do you create a seamless experience that includes social networking/banking/gaming in one place?
What platforms can it be built on?
How will the app be rolled out to new users and millions of people? (via) Gamification? (pass) NFT?
Question 3: Which market segment not discussed will explode in popularity in the next few months/next year?
If this question is asked in 2018, the answer is DeFi;
If this question was asked in 2019, the answer would be NFT
I'm not sure what the next major trend will be, but rethinking that often too.
In summary, more generally, I wanted to take the time to understand the differences between the L1 technology stacks in more detail. Most of my time is spent in crypto trading and development, so I want to balance it out when I have time.
