In the past few days, the plunge of the global stock market is the focus of everyone's attention. This incident happened at this node is a big test for all investors in the investment market.
On the surface, it seems that the direct cause of the entire plunge is Evergrande's thunderstorm.
Evergrande's thunderstorm actually represents the official end of the era of China's real estate boom. It is rumored that during the holidays, our country's regulatory authorities are working overtime to formulate policies to prevent the impact of the Evergrande incident from further expanding. I believe that in the end this incident can be resolved. So I don't think Evergrande itself may cause systemic risks.
However, Evergrande's thunderstorm is the fuse of investor sentiment, and it is a collective avoidance of investors from the long-accumulated global stock market risks and many other risks.
Some signs, including this global market plunge, indicate that the positive linkage between the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market is becoming more and more obvious, so I think that at least by the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency will be prosperous and lose. Relationship.
Then, in my opinion, whether the funds of global investors will return to the stock market and the cryptocurrency market depends on two factors. One is the capital side of the market, and the other is investor confidence.
The current market is not short of funds, so the key point depends on whether investors have confidence in the future market. So what are the factors that will affect investor sentiment and confidence? I think there are two types other than the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic. One is the problems that need to be solved urgently, and the other is the factors that are very likely to ferment in the future and affect the market outlook.
Among them, the first category currently has two main categories: one is whether the Evergrande incident will trigger systemic risks, and the other is the upcoming "debt default" in the United States.
One of the second set of factors is the increasingly important issue of energy prices.
For Evergrande, Goldman Sachs believes that in extreme cases, it may drag down China's economy by 4.1%. I think it is too pessimistic. I believe that with the intervention of the regulatory authorities, the incident can be gradually resolved, so this incident will be gradually digested by the market as time goes by.
Regarding the "debt default" of the United States, the opinions of the two parties are quite anxious at present. The Republican Party has shown an attitude of refusing to cooperate, but I believe that in the end, everyone will compromise in the face of common interests----after all, the ship capsized. Everyone is going to die. Therefore, both parties will eventually raise the debt ceiling step by step, so this worry will gradually be digested by the market.
The really serious ones I think are energy prices, mainly oil and gas prices. The problem has recently become too serious to ignore.
The price of oil has now exceeded $70. With the holidays at the end of the year and the arrival of winter, I believe that the price of oil is likely to continue to rise, and it is possible to break through $100 this year.
The price of natural gas is even more serious. Since the beginning of this year, the price of natural gas has risen by more than 1 times. In August alone, the price of natural gas has increased by 70%. The fundamental reason for the increase in natural gas is the decline in inventory and the serious shortage of supply. And this situation has not fundamentally improved at present, and it may only become more and more serious in the next few months.
Europe is a big consumer of natural gas. Especially in the coming winter, natural gas is a rigid demand in Europe. Whether it is heating or power generation, natural gas occupies a very high proportion. And these are consumptions that are directly related to the common people and cannot be reduced.
This is not only the case in Europe, but also in the United States. Gas prices in the U.S. have skyrocketed even though U.S. shale has become self-sufficient.
According to the past law, the price of natural gas is low in summer and will rise sharply in winter. And now that winter has not yet arrived, the price of natural gas has soared so high, so it is hard to imagine how the price of natural gas will rise when the peak of natural gas consumption arrives in winter.
The soaring price of oil and natural gas will inevitably affect the daily life of the people and lead to more serious inflation. If these problems are not solved properly, it will cause not only economic problems, but also social and political problems. At that time, whether the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will take measures will become the focus of everyone's attention.
Therefore, the worries caused by energy prices are not only indigestible, but will also attract more and more attention as time goes by, which will also be one of the biggest obstacles affecting investor sentiment and confidence in the future.
Of course, there are other factors that can also affect investor sentiment, such as the already frothy stock market and the recurring outbreak of the new crown epidemic.
All these factors are intertwined to form hidden mines one after another. Therefore, I think there are many risk factors in the market in the next few months, which exceed my previous imagination. Therefore, I suggest that investors should not buy any risky assets such as stocks, funds and cryptocurrencies in the next few months, but should keep a certain amount of cash.
If the market can continue to go through the second half of the bull market as we expected, we can cash out the Bitcoin and Ethereum in our hands when they are close to the peak, and we can get rich returns; room for maneuver in case of unexpected events.
