On June 22, Bitcoin fell below the $30,000 mark again, falling by more than 11% in 24 hours, and fell by $10,000 within a week.
According to incomplete statistics, in the past 24 hours, more than 25 million US dollars in DeFi agreements have been liquidated, which is 7 times that of the previous day.
With the tightening of domestic regulatory policies and the sluggish global economic environment, the market performance of Bitcoin has repeatedly hit groups of "believers". So, has the Bitcoin-led cryptocurrency space entered a true bear market? KOLs on Twitter have different opinions.
PlanB, who has declared that Bitcoin will reach $1 million since the last bull market, has always been a firm believer. He said that neither Musk’s previous negative tweets nor China’s negative policies have experienced a major correction for more than a month root cause. He still believes that the bull market is still going on, and this is just a healthy correction in the market.
According to the S2F (Stock-to-flow) model he has always advocated, he judges that Bitcoin will usher in a surge in the fourth quarter of 2021, eventually reaching $135,000.
The S2F model assumes that the scarcity of Bitcoin drives price growth, and the ratio is defined as the ratio of the current inventory of goods to the new production value. Although the ratio has been criticized in many ways, the price of Bitcoin has historically obeyed the S2F ratio, which is one of the reasons why many analysts still agree with the model.
Larry Cermak, the research director of The block, is also long-term bullish. He said that although he is not a trader and cannot judge whether he has entered a bear market, the current general trend in the encryption field is correct, and DeFi will also flourish.
Quantitative analyst Willy Woo directly threw out the data, saying that according to the spent output profit ratio SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) provided by Glassnode, Bitcoin has indeed entered a period of correction, and it is also time to buy bottoms (Buy the dip).
The SOPR indicator is a measure of Bitcoin's overall profit or loss. A ratio of 1 shows that the panicked people (Weak Hands) have exited the market, which means there is a clear upside signal. This indicator suggests that selling below the current bitcoin price could mean paper losses, so few investors are willing to accept such a price.
Analyst Lark Davis also expressed with pictures and texts that, judging from the 200-week moving average, the market will definitely not reach the peak of the bull market without reaching the hot zone in the figure below.
Analysts John Wick and William Clement gave the current relative strength index RSI (Relative Strength Index) to support their belief that this index is the best indicator for judging that the current bull market is still a big one.
It is understood that the relative strength index RSI is a technical curve made according to the ratio of the sum of rising points and falling points in a certain period of time, which can reflect the degree of prosperity of the market in a certain period of time.
Li Qiyuan said on Twitter that he still insists on his point of view: Like 2013, Bitcoin will experience a double top this year, the first in April and the second in December. And his twin brother "King of Escaping from the Top" Li Qiwei also said in a recent interview that he is still in a bull market and it is just a major market correction.
It is worth noting that since the start of the bull market in 2020, as of now, there have been almost no bearish voices overseas, and even if there were, it was only a panic of short-term market dives.
On the contrary, due to the tightening of domestic regulatory policies on bitcoin mining and trading, some domestic KOLs are relatively pessimistic.
For example, Dovey Wan has been frequently updating domestic regulatory actions and analysis recently. She holds a serious pessimistic attitude towards the bad regulation in the short term, but she is optimistic in the long term.
Jiang Zhuoer also said that this round of bull market has not peaked, and has stepped out of an unprecedented arc top. It may go short and bearish, or it may go in a double-top pattern similar to 2013.
And our encrypted Internet celebrity Miss Molly is completely lost, but like us, she definitely hopes that the second half of the bull market will continue.
Banteg, the core developer of Yearn, also expressed his views on market fluctuations in recent weeks. He laughed at himself: "Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, our development speed is as slow as a crab." After the tweet was sent out, Yearn's founder Andre Cronje also liked it immediately.
Encrypted KOLs, who used to be playful as their speech style before, got together and talked about jokes. "Wolf of Wall Street" also said that it has returned to life: "Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, I have started to build a tactical support small airport for my children!"
However, again, people in the market game will always take the trouble to analyze and analyze the market from various angles. In order to keep up with the rhythm of the market, referring to various indicators is often the most efficient way. Use leading indicators to predict the market, and refer to simultaneous and lagging indicators to verify market changes.
People are more interested in leading indicators that give a head start on where the market is headed than lagging and coincident indicators. Leading indicators tend to look beyond the business cycle and are generally suitable for short- and medium-term cycle analysis. In traditional markets, people often come into contact with two types of leading indicators: macroeconomic leading indicators used for fundamental analysis and indicators used for technical analysis.
Generally, stock indexes, interest rates, and treasury bond yields are widely considered to be very effective leading indicators for judging macroeconomic trends in traditional financial markets. Since Bitcoin is embraced by more and more Wall Street institutions, such indicators are related to the encryption field. will also become stronger.
Therefore, in a sense, the cryptocurrency market and the traditional financial market will be linked in the future. In the encrypted market, investors can not only judge the impact of national economic trends on encrypted assets through the currency and fiscal policies of various countries, but also judge the flow of funds by observing macroeconomic indicators, and judge price trends through technical indicators of on-site transactions. The data shows that the stable currency lending rate in the encrypted market and the basis and funding rate of derivatives are very effective leading indicators.
However, indicators are indicators after all, and are only used as a static basis for our judgment. However, the market is changing rapidly. Only by maintaining a good attitude, constantly improving the level of cognition, and years of practical experience can we make more wise decisions. Whether you trade with reference to indicators or adhere to the concept of value investment, don't act too hastily, stay rational, and control the risk within the acceptable range is the basic quality of an investor.
