Long-term rating: Overweight
Short Cycle Rating:
Bitcoin waits for an opportunity to accumulate
Lighten up in small-cap cryptocurrencies
Long-term rating: Overweight
Short Cycle Rating:
Bitcoin waits for an opportunity to accumulate
Lighten up in small-cap cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin falls below $50,000, is a bear market coming?
Bitcoin started a round of trend rise on September 6, 2020 last year. In general, there are two platforms for consolidation in a general trend rise, and three stages for the main rise. However, Bitcoin's rise was fierce this time, and it showed signs of exhaustion and peaking in April after rising by 5 platforms.
We reminded investors in the 130th issue that Bitcoin may have two scenarios, a strong continuation of the daily line-level continued rise and a weak and healthy rise after a correction. We also told investors that if you are risk-averse, you can Choose to perform a lightening operation at $58,000-60,000.
Now, after Bitcoin hit the highest point of $59,522, it made a second sale on the daily line, that is, the second highest point on the daily line chart, and then began to fall strongly, falling below the previous low of $47,000, which constituted a line segment destruction. So far, The market has clearly announced that it has chosen a weak and healthy callback script. The immediate question for investors is whether the bull market is over? Can I still buy it? Next, I will answer your questions from two perspectives: historical laws and technical aspects.
The discovery of the historical law was really accidental. The asset management team compared the 17-year bull market trend with the current one. As shown in the figure, the blue line segment is the market trend of the 2017 bull market from the lowest point to the highest point, and the price behind it is In the current market, you can find that history does not repeat, but the rhyme is similar. Historically, Bitcoin also encountered resistance when it rose to $2,000 and $4,000 in May 2017. There were two waves of more than 40% corrections, but the bull market finished?
No, Bitcoin ushered in the final madness. It raced from $4,000 to $20,000 in a short period of time, and the bull market officially ended after reaching the peak. Going back to the present, if history repeats itself in 2021, Bitcoin will experience its final madness, reaching a peak of 200,000-300,000 US dollars. At present, it is just a larger callback, and this larger callback is an opportunity for us to replenish the bull market.
Technically, Bitcoin's daily level can't rise anymore, and it will naturally fall after exhaustion, but in the long-distance race, the rest in the middle is to go further, and the decline of the daily level is just a callback at the weekly level. On the weekly level, the decline of Bitcoin this time is actually a large-scale buying point, which is the inevitable start of the second half of the bull market.
The corresponding investment strategy has not changed. The strategy formulated at that time has now arrived as scheduled, and we naturally started to implement the strategy. Our strategy at that time was "If it is a weak and healthy callback script, we can wait for the market to fall and there will be a clear Then consider the buying point, and then you can rest assured to welcome the second half of the bull market. Of course, such buying points and opportunities need timing, and the timing is given by the market.”
