Bitcoin has risen by more than 100% this year, nearly 20 times higher than the same period last year, and the continuous bull market has kept it at its peak. Looking back on this journey, Bitcoin is performing a similar "roller coaster" plot. When most financial trading institutions were resting, shortly after Bitcoin broke through the $59,000 mark, Bitcoin crossed the psychological price of $60,000 and hit the highest line of $61,829, with a total market value of over $1.1 trillion, exceeding the total market value of global cryptocurrencies 60%. But this new high seems to be short-lived. On March 15, the price of Bitcoin fell from the high point, crashing by $8,000 and returning to below $54,000.
In this regard, Tan Yu Kai of the Currency Retail Alliance believes that it is normal for a large retracement in a bull market. "Taking stocks as an example, if they fall by 20% from the highest point, it can be called a technical correction. Bitcoin has fallen from the trading price of $58,000 per coin in early February to around $40,000, which is a big retracement , and this drop can also be understood as a technical retracement or fluctuation." "Bitcoin's decline has always been determined by a variety of factors. According to purely rational market logic, Bitcoin will rise a little every day because of its characteristics. But in reality, it is impossible for Bitcoin to maintain its upward trend all the time. "There will always be a long-short game in the market, but overall, large fluctuations are generally caused by the advance and retreat of large institutions and large funds. "
So far, the attention and recognition of Bitcoin by large and small institutions is still gradually increasing, and they continue to enter the market, and occasionally increase their holdings. Funds continue to flow into the Bitcoin market, but they have already appeared cautious, while retail funds have shown bravery. Currency analyst Tan Yu Kai believes that against the background of rising global inflation expectations, both institutional investors and small and medium investors are buying Bitcoin. In the past, at least until this autumn, the tone of global economic recovery and loose monetary policy will still not change significantly. In particular, the fiscal policies of countries such as Europe and the United States that directly distribute cash subsidies to the public will only make more small and medium investors flock to the market. into the bitcoin market. "For individual investors trading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is the main investment channel during the new crown epidemic. Amid the obvious volatility in stock trading, Bitcoin has maintained a surprisingly bullish trend, making most investors winners. Stimulus bailout checks, individual investors reinvigorated amid the nascent cryptocurrency trading boom.”
Bitcoin (BTC): continued to plummet, continued to drop, rebounded after touching the line of 53272.7 US dollars below, and the upper part was under pressure of 57000 US dollars twice. The current currency price is trading at 55900 US dollars, and the overall market is under adjustment . Looking at the daily line, Bitcoin closed slightly positive the next day, but the overall trend is still below the moving average, and it is adjusted at a high level and is under pressure. BOLL is in an open state, and the moving average MA5 turns downwards and MA10 is about to stick to the area of 57,600 US dollars to form a suppression, while the lower part focuses on the support of this week's low at 53,200 US dollars, and the key support is located at BOLL's middle rail at 52,000 US dollars A support. The short-cycle KDJ technical indicators are moderately downward, and the upward movement energy of MACD in the attached picture is shrinking. It is expected that Bitcoin will maintain a high adjustment.
In four hours, Bitcoin can be said to have fallen from the historical high all the way to the lower track position of BOLL. During the period, there was a rebound, but the strength was limited, and it was still in the downward channel for several consecutive trading days. At present, the currency price is intertwined in the area of the two major moving averages. The position at this time is also very critical. The upper part focuses on the BOLL middle rail at 57,000 US dollars, and the lower part focuses on the support of 54,500 US dollars. The gain or loss of this resistance will also determine the short-term currency price trend . The short-cycle KDJ technical indicators are moderately downward, and the downward momentum of MACD in the attached picture is shrinking. It is expected that Bitcoin will continue to maintain a weak order.
To sum up: on the news surface, as the institutions profited and sold off, the long and short factors were mixed. From a technical point of view, although Bitcoin as a whole is still in the bull market, the bulls have been weakened by a large number of sell-offs, and the downward trend of pressure has not been effectively alleviated. The current key point is the support of 52,000 US dollars. If we continue to explore, we can refer to the previous historical highs and the lows of the retracement. This wave of callbacks will end at least around the $46,000 mark, but we also need to refer to the guidance of the news in the middle. As long as the currency price is effectively above $57,300, the short-term downside risks can be effectively mitigated. Regarding the short-term operation of the contract, Mr. Tan believes that it is still possible to make short-term gains or more gains at key resistance or support levels, but this process cannot last for a long time. The momentum of this adjustment may extend to Friday. In the medium-term trend, we still wait for a clear direction before doing real-time trading. According to the layout of the general trend, the teacher still insists on being bullish.
Short-term upper resistance level: 56300/57000 Short-term lower support level: 55000/54500
Ethereum (ETH): The general trend follows Bitcoin, but the short-term momentum is still strong. There is nothing to study in the trend. In the short term, you only need to pay attention to the resistance around $1,830 (the daily MA5/MA10 bonding position), and the support around $1,720 below. At the current stage, it is in the resistance position of this support and maintains adjustment. If the general direction is concerned, we should pay attention to the breakthrough of this resistance. Where the market goes, we urgently need to follow up with the trend. If you are uncertain about the interpretation of technical market and news, or you have a set list, you can discuss it with Mr. Tan. Subscribe to the official account; Currency Circle Retail Alliance.
Short-term upper resistance level: 1808/1830 Short-term lower support level: 1750/1720
FIL: Since the start of this round of bull market, DeFi concept coins have generally increased by more than 10 times. From the perspective of the storage sector, the increase of FIL is far less than that of AR, which has nearly doubled by 6 times. From this perspective, the price of FIL seems to have "room to rise". However, if the perspective is shifted from the price of a single FIL to the FIL project itself, the situation may be different. At present, the circulation of FIL is about 100 million pieces, accounting for 5.01% of its total supply, which means that the total market value of FIL is close to 908.1 billion yuan. Small circulation and high market value, this is a very special situation for FIL among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market value.
At present, FIL is the most eye-catching currency in the entire market. Even though the mainstream currencies have plummeted recently and are under pressure, only FIL bucked the trend and rose for six consecutive times. Today, it once broke through the $70 mark. Such a rise has exceeded Teacher Tan’s expectations. , but it does not affect Mr. Tan's continued optimism about the prospect of the currency. It has always been the style of the teacher to be bullish and not to chase the rise. He would rather miss than make mistakes. After a sharp rise, there must be a callback. If it falls below $43, you can boldly buy and hold it.
