Under such a game pattern, the currency holders have a certain advantage of "sitting on the mountain and watching the tiger fight". The choice of who to bet on the dot in their hands depends on the comparative analysis of their own interests.
Editor's Note: This article comes fromTalk about Xia Kanshi (ID: huaxiakissTalk about Xia Kanshi (ID: huaxiakiss
), Author: Hua Xia, published by Odaily with authorization.
The grand vision, the legendary resume of the founder, the unique economic model, and the approaching parachain slot auction all make Polkadot the hottest blockchain project currently.Among them, the most anticipated, and also the "touchstone" for testing whether Polkadot is a mule or a horse, is the launch of the parachain.Polkadot positioning is a multi-chain sharding network composed of a "relay chain + parachain" structure, and each parachain can theoretically be a "relay chain" in its own network. In this way, great scalability and performance improvement can be achieved.As of now, the number of registered addresses on the Polkadot chain is 63,845, which is not commensurate with the market reputation given to Polkadot by the current market and industry. The core reason is that the most critical "parachain" module for building Polkadot's ecology has not been launched. All projects that are positioned and intend to enter the Polkadot ecology have to be connected to the Polkadot network after the launch of the parachain module.In other words, the current state of Polkadot is that ecological projects are waiting for the mainnet upgrade (the parachain module is launched). Once the upgrade is completed, the long-awaited ecological projects will be quickly connected to form a preliminary Polkadot ecosystem. According to community statistics, the number of projects currently included in the Polkadot ecosystem has reached 313. "Real access" and "so-called ecological projects" are completely different things.Therefore, as an investor who pays attention to Polkadot, the most intuitive data that needs to be paid attention to is the number of registered addresses of Polkadot, which is a microcosm of ecological development.Back to the parachain slot auction thing.It is a key step in ecological development, and the parachain slot auction is enough to attract the attention of the entire industry and the participation of a large amount of capital. Including capital institutions, exchanges, mining pools, developers, non-Polkadot public chain project parties, large currency holders, and ordinary investors.Before participating, gaining insight into the relevant game relationships will help us fight a prepared battle. Whether to participate, how to participate, and the degree of participation are all based on the overall picture of the game to make reasonable decisions.
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As a currency holder, the currently foreseeable profit methods are mainly: (1) staking income, which is currently about 8%; (2) support project parties to bid for slots to obtain project party token airdrops and other benefits.After the launch of the parachain, token holders will face a choice between the two, because tokens participating in stkaing cannot participate in slot auctions at the same time, and vice versa.The unfreezing period of the token for staking is 28 days, and the token participating in the slot auction must wait until the slot rental period expires before it can be unlocked and redeemed. The currently disclosed slot bidding period includes four types: 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, and 24 months. Bidders can choose the time period to rent according to their own needs. Therefore, the first point that currency holders need to pay attention to is that the unfreezing period of the two is not fixed, and you can apply for unfreezing and redemption at any time; the other is a fixed period, and you must wait until it expires before you can redeem it.The current pledge rate of the network is about 74%, corresponding to an annualized return of about 8%. Polkadot adopts a non-linear inflation model. When the pledge rate exceeds 50%, the pledge yield will drop significantly. as the picture shows:image description
The parachain slot auction will reduce the pledge rate of the network to a certain extent, and the degree of impact depends on the expected revenue brought by the slot auction. However, it can be expected that the proportion of "staking + auction lock" in the future will most likely exceed the current 74%. An obvious logic is that most of those unlocked by staking are locked in auctions, while those who buy dots through the secondary market will mainly participate in slot auctions.When some currency holders unlock the dot of staking to participate in the auction lock, the reduction of the pledge rate will increase the overall staking rate of return. For example, when the pledge rate is lower than 50%, the staking rate of return will exceed 20%, and this will have a good financial appeal, attracting some non-coin holders to go to the secondary market to buy dots to participate in staking.In the frenzied atmosphere of the market, it is difficult for short-term arbitrageurs to endure the long-term principal freeze period. Therefore, if the Polkadot parachain slot auction is to detonate the industry and bring a predictable profit-making effect, an ideal state is to support the airdrop token obtained from the slot auction (the airdrop token will most likely be divided into batches according to the slot rental period or linear release) can far exceed the annualized income of staking, and the ideal state is to directly tie the dot market value frozen in the auction.I want to emphasize that this is just an idea, and it is a situation that may occur when the market is more frenzied. I continue to deduce along this idea.For the Polkadot parachain slot auction, the release of slots is not a one-off, but gradual, and only one slot will be released in the first phase.Therefore, winning the first auction has a strong publicity effect and brand communication power for the project party. As for the exchange, the first real Polkadot ecological project that has been successfully launched for the first time has a great "asset adsorption effect", and based on this, it creates a profit-making effect for its own exchange, and the profit-making effect is for retail investors. As far as it is concerned, it is a fatal temptation. For capital institutions, helping the ecological projects they invest in to win the first group is an inevitable demand for their own capital institutions to form brand power and build project advantages within the ecology in the future. Therefore, all parties have strong interest demands to win the first auction. This is the driving force, which will inevitably lead to an alliance of interests among all parties, and finally push the threshold of the first auction to an extremely high level. I think this magnitude is likely to exceed 20 million dots, corresponding to a current market value of about 100 million US dollars.We assume that the project side airdrops 15% of the project tokens to slot auction supporters. If the market value of the airdropped tokens is equal to the market value of the dot locked in the auction, the market value of the project will reach 660 million US dollars. In other words, after the project goes online, the stable market value can reach 660 million US dollars, which will be enough to detonate Polkadot's parachain slot auction.Note: The above are all estimates based on existing prices and are not absolute. The purpose is to provide a direction of deduction.secondary title
The game between exchanges.We mentioned above that major stakeholders such as project parties, capital institutions, and exchanges are very likely to participate in this bidding competition. Among them, the centralized exchange is still the core link of the current industry chain, with the most accumulated assets, the most users, and the most considerable profits.Therefore, the participation of the exchange will bring the first auction of Polkadot slots to a climax. The large amount of dot assets deposited by the exchange and its excellent trading depth are invincible chips in my hands.And Polkadot is not just dot, but an entire ecology that may develop. Standing on the label of the ecological first launch will bring continuous transaction fee income and asset accumulation to the exchange (see how Huobi participated in the eos node competition at the time) You will know the considerable benefits it brings). The major exchanges are bound to spare no effort for this, and this will make the competition much more advanced, that is, the exchanges will take various measures and activities to win the dot assets in the hands of users in advance before the auction starts.Another point to note is that, assuming that the winning project is a project supported by a certain exchange, and the corresponding exchange will also become the main trading place of the project, for the sake of the initial launch and the creation of money-making effects, it is necessary for the exchange to make After the project went online, it went out of a strong trend.secondary title
The game between project parties.Although, it is not required to be the project party to bid for the slot, it can also be any person or institution. However, I think the first winning bid is likely to be a Polkadot ecological project, which is conducive to creating a good ecological image. (After all, an ecology controlled by chaebols is disgusting)Therefore, the game between project parties is mainly to fight for the dots in the hands of users. This requires a good project fundamentals, an attractive token reward scheme, and a good valuation.I have checked a lot of public information, and many projects claim to participate in Polkadot’s first slot auction, but the specific bidding support reward scheme is rarely disclosed. After all, the party who gives the hole card first will become passive as the competitive situation develops.
