Editor's Note: This article comes fromZhikuang University (ID: gh_37c9e0eaf00a), reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Zhikuang University (ID: gh_37c9e0eaf00a)
Zhikuang University (ID: gh_37c9e0eaf00a)
, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Hello everyone, I'm Keven, the product manager of Lebit Mining Pool, and a small miner. I own Bitcoin and Ethereum mining rigs, and recently added some Ethereum mining rigs.
After the launch of the ETH 2.0 beacon chain on December 1, many people asked me:
Here, I would like to share with you the logic of my recent investment in Ethereum mining machines.
ETH 2.0 has been mentioned for many years. For Ethereum miners, ETH 2.0 is like the sword of Damocles hanging above their heads. Once the development of ETH2.0 is completed, millions of mining machines in the Ethereum network will be eliminated. Except for a small number of mining machines that flow into other currencies, most of the graphics card mining machines will be thrown away in the secondary graphics card market. For the Ethereum miners in Japan, it is undoubtedly a disaster.
As a small miner who hates risks and wants to obtain stable and high returns, I am thinking at this time: Can I continue to buy Ethereum mining machines for mining?
Conclusion: After the ETH 2.0 beacon chain is launched, graphics card mining machines can still mine for one and a half to two years, and Ethereum miners don’t have to worry about switching to PoS for the time being.
Data Sources:https://launchpad.ethereum.org/
ETH 2.0 launched the beacon chain on December 1 this year. So far, 1,483,297 ETHs have been pledged:
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Data Sources:
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Time: 2020.12.15 11:00
The launch of the beacon chain means that the Ethereum network currently has two chains, PoW and PoS consensus mechanisms. So when will the PoW chain be merged into the PoS chain, and ETH can no longer be mined? In fact, this process will take quite a long time.
Let's take a look at several stages of ETH upgrade:
Phase 0: Start the beacon chain with PoS as the consensus mechanism
Phase 1: Data sharding, introducing shard chains
Phase 1.5: ETH1 (PoW chain) merged into ETH2 (PoS chain)
Phase 2: Continue to implement the sharding mechanism, and each shard chain officially performs various functions
So when will Phase 1.5 be implemented? We can find the answer from the AMA held by ETH on the Reddit forum on November 18:
Ethereum core developer Justin is not optimistic about the progress of the merger plan. In his opinion, because it involves the coordination of ETH 1.0 and ETH 2.0, it may offend the ETH 1.0 conservatives. Justin believes that in 2021, it is estimated that ETH 1.0 and ETH 2.0 will not be merged. In other words, it will take at least a year for the funds deposited into the ETH deposit contract and participating in Staking.
From Justin's answer, we can see that Phase 1.5 will not be completed in 2021, so ETH can still be mined for at least 13 months. Considering the development difficulty and multiple delays of Ethereum 2.0, it is predicted that Ethereum can still be mined for one and a half to two years.
For miners, there is no need to consider the impact of switching to PoS for the time being.
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Why is it a good time to buy a mining machine now?
1. Graphics card mining machines are not expensive
Friends who pay attention to the mining industry may have noticed that since the price of Bitcoin broke through 10,000 in September, the price of Bitcoin mining machines has also risen sharply. At present, the spot mining machines on the market have been swept away. It's futures around July 2021. I counted the sales price of B.TOP mining machines:
In September, due to the DeFi boom, the Ethereum network was congested, and the handling fee even exceeded the normal block burst income. The Ethereum miners made a lot of money, so the ETH mining machines also rose. The spot price of 5600xt was around 20,000.
According to the comparison in the table above, from September to now:
The price of ETH has increased by 61.2%, but the price of mining machines in Ethereum has dropped slightly;
The price of BTC has increased by 85.4%, and the price of Bitcoin mining machines has increased by 20% (calculated using the January futures price, the actual increase is more).
2. Forecast of the computing power of the whole network
Unlike Bitcoin, it is expected that the mining power of Ethereum will not increase significantly in the next 1-2 years.
1) Mining computing power lags behind currency price increase
Under normal circumstances, the currency price rises, the payback period becomes shorter, and miners buy more mining machines to mine. You can take a look at the changes in the computing power of the entire Ethereum network in 2020:
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Data source: qkl123
You can see that in August and September, the computing power increased a lot, especially in September, the computing power increased by 17.36%. The essence was because of the DeFi boom at that time, and the Ethereum network was congested. The cycle is very short, about 4 months, which stimulates miners to buy a large number of mining machines.
Due to the uncertainty of mining brought about by the conversion of ETH to PoS, there is currently no significant premium for graphics card mining machines, and the computing power of graphics cards did not increase significantly in November and December. From this, it can be judged that miners are not willing to enter the market. The computing power increase is limited.
2) DAG file limits 4G graphics card mining
Based on the characteristics of the Ethash algorithm, the DAG file will gradually increase, and the DAG file is directly stored in the GPU memory. If the DAG file is larger than the GPU memory, the GPU cannot continue mining. At the end of December, 4G graphics cards cannot continue to mine ETH. Of course, some 4G graphics cards have been modified or are currently being modified. Some old graphics cards that entered the market in 2017 may be eliminated directly. It is difficult to estimate how many 4G graphics cards will be eliminated. 8G graphics cards have a certain time period, and some 4G graphics cards will also be eliminated.
3) ETH to PoS forms a computing power vacuum period
ETH to PoS is a double-edged sword for current graphics card miners. After switching to PoS, the graphics card miners lost the golden chicken that has been laying eggs, which is really disappointing. Before switching to PoS, at the current point of time, miners can still enjoy short-term mining bonuses.
Switching to PoS is equivalent to hanging a sharp sword over the heads of miners, preventing some miners from entering the mine.
Mining depends on the payback period. Generally, everyone uses the static payback period as a reference. The current static payback period is 10 months. We have reason to believe that after April 2020, there will be fewer and fewer graphics cards. Mining machines enter the site to mine. After April next year, a computing power vacuum period will be formed (provided that the Ethereum development plan is not postponed), and a very interesting game situation will be formed. The price of Ethereum rises, but the computing power does not rise, and the miners earn a lot of money. The pot is full, and the payback period is greatly shortened.
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