Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlockVC（ID：blockvcfund）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
This September is not a particularly easy month to make money, and it can even be said to be a big money-losing month.
Troubled by the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the cloud of the U.S. election, major global risk assets have generally fallen in the past two weeks. Stocks, bonds, and commodities have all fallen to varying degrees, and the risk appetite has dropped significantly.
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Data Sources:https://www.tokensets.com/portfolio/dpi
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Data source: MVIS Index
We can use the words of structural market conditions to describe the current market conditions, even pessimistically, but judging from the price trend of the secondary market, we are experiencing a technical bear market under the cloak of DeFi enthusiasm.
Compared with the slightly sluggish secondary market, the total value of locked assets in the DeFi market is close to 11 billion U.S. dollars. Although the currency price has been adjusted by more than 30% during the period, it can be seen from the figure below that the scale of locked assets in the DeFi market is short-lived. After the retracement, it quickly hit a new high, and the locked-in scale of BTC grew particularly rapidly.
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Data source: DeFiPulse
Combining all the characteristics of the market, we seem to be able to see such a tangled market atmosphere:
First, the fiery liquidity mining market diverged from the slightly deserted secondary trading market, and DeFi currencies fell sharply;
Third, the rare minimum long-short ratio appeared in the contract market, and the proportion of the short side increased significantly, but the total amount of contract positions decreased.
We believe that these seemingly contradictory or entangled phenomena show that the absolute liquidity of the digital currency market is actually very abundant, but a large amount of funds are deposited in the DeFi market to obtain stable and high annualized returns, and the funds in the secondary market are obviously insufficient, or even unable to Relay supports Polkadot ecology and NFT and other market hotspots; at the same time, non-ETH ecological DeFi has begun to relay market heat, such as DeFi projects such as Tron and Binance Smart Chain have been launched successively, diverting market funds, resulting in ETH lock-up and price changes. Liquidity mining started successively on some public chains exacerbated the diversion effect; finally, although the long-to-short ratio fell to a significantly low level, the open interest did not increase significantly, indicating that the current short sellers do not have a strong willingness to bet on a market crash.
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After shrinking and turbulent, Bitcoin will continue to climb sharply
When the market experienced a heavy drop in early September, the selling pressure and trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum were very large. They set the largest trading volume in this quarter for two consecutive days. There is a very resilient buying order to undertake, which may have something to do with the recent large-scale buying plan of Bitcoin publicly announced by Grayscale and other asset management companies. This also shows that large funds driven by macro trading logic recognize the current price. The trading volume has shrunk significantly, and the willingness of funds to buy and sell is weakening, and the room for further shocks and callbacks may be very limited.
The current state of market shrinkage, turbulence and low volatility cannot be sustained stably, and the market is waiting for a change in time or a key opportunity.
This opportunity may be the return of DeFi funds. As the DeFi market becomes more rational and AYP drops to a reasonable range, DeFi will become a long-term mature digital currency wealth management platform to accumulate currency assets, and active trading funds will return to the secondary trading market. The next stage of the market.
