Editor's Note: This article comes fromZhikuang University (ID: gh_37c9e0eaf00a), reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Zhikuang University (ID: gh_37c9e0eaf00a)
, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
In recent months, the price of Ethereum has risen very high, corresponding to the increase in mining revenue, and the shortened payback cycle. Is Ethereum mining a good business? Is Now a Good Time to Get into Ethereum Mining? With the rise in the price of Ethereum and the increase in the output of unit computing power coins per day, many friends have begun to pay attention to Ethereum mining. Let’s talk about Ethereum mining today.
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The Ethereum mining algorithm has higher requirements for memory, so the purpose of this design limits the use of ASIC chips in Ethereum mining to a certain extent. Judging from the results, the vast majority of Ethereum mining machines are graphics card machines, which reflects the success of the Ethereum mining algorithm in anti-ASIC. From the absolute value of the scale of computing power, the computing power of the entire network of Ethereum is about 200TH/s, and the computing power of Bitcoin is about 120EH/s, and the latter is nearly 600,000 times that of the former.
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The above comparison is meaningless. Let's compare from another angle. Suppose you spend ¥10 million each to buy Bitcoin mainstream mining machines and Ethereum mining machines, and compare the increase in computing power between the two:
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Investing ¥10 million, the impact on the computing power of the entire network
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The current income and payback cycle of Ethereum mining
At present, the mainstream graphics card manufacturers on the market are AMD and Nvidia. In the Ethereum mining market, the more popular graphics cards include Nvidia’s 1660S, AMD’s 5600XT and 5700XT.
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Graphics card mining revenue and payback cycle
According to the current currency price, the daily net income of the 5700XT 8-card machine is 115.6 yuan. Calculated according to the current market price, the static payback period of Ethereum mining is about 240 days, and the static payback period of the Nvidia series 1660S is only 210 days. From the perspective of the static payback cycle, this investment is extremely attractive.
It needs to be explained that at present, whether it is the price of Ethereum or the daily currency output per unit of computing power, the fluctuations are very large. For example, today’s mining network shows that 1MH/s can dig out 0.00013576ETH in a day. The above table is based on the 1MH in the past 7 days. /s The payback period calculated by the average daily output. Of course, the recent surge in miners' income is mainly due to the popularity of the DeFi concept. We conservatively estimate that the static payback period is about 10 months.
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The static payback cycle of Ethereum mining is only 10 months or even shorter, so some people must be worried about the risk of Ethereum mining. Let's take a look at the factors that affect the profitability of Ethereum mining, as well as the potential risks of Ethereum mining.
1. Computing power of the whole network
The computing power of the entire network is one of the important factors affecting the mining income of Ethereum mining.
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Ethereum block time in 2020
In addition to block rewards, Ethereum miners’ income also includes miners’ fees. Recently, the liquidity mining of Dex such as Uniswap has been hot, and the miners’ fees on Ethereum have skyrocketed. There have even been cases where the miners’ fees for a single block exceeded 4ETH. Of course, this kind of super high handling fee is unlikely to last for a long time, but the rise of the DeFi concept is very beneficial to increase the fee income of miners.
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At present, there is a shortage of graphics cards on the market, and it is even more difficult to find new graphics cards that flow into the mining circle. The main reason is that graphics card manufacturers and the epidemic have stimulated the consumer market for graphics cards, resulting in a shortage of graphics cards in the short term. Zhikuang University has learned through various channels that if the price of Ethereum and miners’ fees continue to rise, the computing power of Ethereum may increase to a certain extent this year, which is a potential risk for miners.
source:www.sparkpool.com/token/ETH#sparkpool
For new miners, there is a definite benefit. Ethereum mining needs to store DAG files, and this file will continue to grow with the increase of the block height. By this year, the DAG of 12 or so files will exceed 4G, which will cause the mining machine with 4G video memory to no longer be able to mine Ethereum. A batch of graphics cards may be used for transformation or flow out of the mining circle. It is conservatively estimated that the computing power provided by such graphics cards accounts for about 30% of the computing power of the entire Ethereum network. That is to say, when the DAG file of Ethereum exceeds 4G, about 30% of the computing power will be withdrawn from the Ethereum network for a period of time, which means that more more coins.
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4G Graphics Card Mining Ethereum Countdown
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2. Currency price fluctuations
Mining and buying a mining machine is a one-time investment, while mining income is gradually generated. Currency price fluctuations will have a great impact on the payback cycle. The current price of Ethereum is 420 US dollars. If there is a relatively large drop, the recovery period will be greatly extended. Hedging can avoid such risks. For example, if you have a batch of Ethereum mining machines, according to the current currency price, it is conservatively estimated that the payback period is about 10 months, and you can dig out 10 ETH every month. You can find a financial service provider in the circle and choose Hedging the output of mining coins for three months, half a year or even 10 months. We have learned a lot, and the current financial service providers in the circle either have relatively simple and rude hedging plans, or are not very friendly to retail investors.
If the miner owns some ether coins, he can sell the coins in his hand for hedging according to the mining output and hedging cycle.
The price of graphics cards has also seen a large increase this year. This year, graphics cards such as 1660S, 5600XT, and 5700XT have all increased by about 30% or even higher, which is also a potential risk.
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4. Ethereum 2.0
Some people worry that the arrival of Ethereum 2.0 will affect Ethereum miners. Ethereum 2.0 is mainly divided into three phases, Phase 0, Phase 1 and Phase 2. At present, Phase 0 is not yet online, and it is conservatively estimated that the Ethereum graphics card mining machine can still mine for more than a year. Calculated according to the 10-month payback period, and hedge the currency output for half a year or even the entire payback period, now is a good time window for Ethereum mining.
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