Editor's Note: This article comes fromChain catcher (ID: iqklbs), Author: Wang Dashu, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Chain catcher (ID: iqklbs)
Chain catcher (ID: iqklbs)
, Author: Wang Dashu, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
At the starting point of the current "bull market" that everyone is looking forward to, Polkadot has high expectations from the public as a cross-chain star project. However, the realization of this "high hope" still needs to overcome a series of difficulties and obstacles.
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Behind the ups and downs of DOT prices
"Seeing that DOT has risen from more than 120 U to 255 U, the rise is both tempting and confusing, but thinking that the off-market price of 75 U was not available in May, I still restrain myself." This is at 17:00 on July 17 When Polkadot’s native token DOT was listed on Huobi, Lin Miao’s inner ups and downs.
Polkadot, formerly known as Polkadot, is a collection of heterogeneous blockchains composed of multiple blockchains. The main purpose is to connect the current independent blockchains. Through Polkadot, different blockchains can communicate. and data transfer.
As Polkadot's native token, DOT plays four key functions in Polkadot, namely providing management for the network, running the network, creating parallel chains by binding DOT, and passing messages across parallel chains.
To expand, the first function is to give holders the right to complete the governance control of the platform, mainly including the determination of network fees, auction dynamics and schedules for adding parachains and special events, such as Polkadot platform upgrades and repairs; The second function is to support Polkadot’s consensus mechanism. Holders can perform these functions by staking their DOTs; the third function is to add new parachains by binding tokens; the fourth function is to Validator nodes pay fees to transmit cross-chain messages.
Of course, these functions need to be launched in stages, and have no direct impact on the current secondary market price.
Therefore, after the first release of DOT, the market opened higher and only maintained until 24:00 of the day, and then continued to move lower. In the past two weeks, the price of a single coin has mostly hovered between US$140 and US$180.
"In fact, compared with the previous two rounds of public offering prices, the current secondary price should be considered to be floating within a reasonable range. The reason why it goes up immediately after going online is more a reflection of market hype." Cao Yinru, managing director of the Renaissance Digital Foundation, analyzed .
However, it should be noted that the Web3 Foundation announced on July 16 that DOT cannot be transferred at present, which means that the DOT on the current online exchange can only be mapped and cannot be charged and withdrawn. Similar to futures, the official emphasizes participation Such transactions are risky. However, this shows that the major exchanges recognize Polkadot and hope to use this to attract Polkadot users to become their own traffic.
On the other hand, the mainstream currencies have continued to rise in the past two weeks, the overall market conditions have been positive, and funds have been sucked away by the broader market, resulting in the weakness of the hot stories of the Polkadot project in front of the broader market.
In this regard, Laminar CTO and Polkadot community ambassador Chen Xiliang said that the market does not need to do too much interpretation of the current secondary market price of DOT. The core reason is that DOT has limited applications before its parachain auction, so the current secondary market price does not exist. There are too many actual supports. Only when the market has a relatively large demand for DOT after the auction of the parachain starts, the price fluctuation can reflect more actual conditions.
Similar to Chen Xiliang's view, Cdot Network CTO Wu Yifei also believes that the technical progress of the project has no direct relationship with the secondary market price.
This can't help but remind people of 2018, which is known as the first year of the public chain. Most of the project tokens are just investment targets for market speculation, and they do not serve the corresponding functions. Most of the stories such as technical vision are written with this goal in mind. With the advent of the bear market, the industry began to de-bubble, and at the same time, Polkadot, which has persisted until now, has become a hot topic in the industry in 2020.
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Polkadot history
In fact, as one of the three hot spots in 2020, Polkadot has the fastest development compared with the two major projects Filecoin and Ethereum 2.0. Since its founder Gavin Wood released the "Decentralized Application: Web3.0" in 2014, What It Looks Like" article to explain the concept of Web3.0 So far, Polkadot has gone through nearly 20 important time nodes.
Among them, it mainly includes the official establishment in 2015. In 2016, Gavin Wood released the first draft of the white paper. In 2017, he initiated and established the Web3 Foundation and completed about 144 million US dollars in fundraising. In 2018, PoC-1 version, PoC-2 version Released successively; in 2019, PoC-3 version, PoC-4 version released, Polkadot test network Kusama and KusamaCC-3 autonomous version, and Substrate, a development kit for developers to quickly create blockchains, were released successively and completed the second round public offer.
Today, the project has completed the announcement of the online process and the phased launch of the main network. Among them, the online process includes six stages, including PoA, NPIS, governance, removal of Sudo (administrator authority), activation of the transfer function, and activation of other core functions. The fourth phase has just been completed recently - the removal of Sudo, and the next step is to start the transfer function. According to Gavin's prediction, this function is expected to be launched in mid-August.
"Polkadot's philosophy, team background, technical strength, engineering architecture design, code quality, and development speed are all top-notch in the industry. Substrate itself, a general chain development framework, is also a very valuable project.” Wu Yifei commented on the technical value of Polkadot.
Regarding the relationship between the two, DarwiniaNetwork Co-Founder Alex Chien believes that it is both competition and complementarity. "From the perspective of ecological philosophy, Ethereum provides a platform on which applications can be deployed, while Polkadot encourages each application to easily issue a chain, transitioning from a contract to a chain, with more flexibility and availability. Those who read are essentially taking two routes, each of which has value.”
However, in view of the bloated operation of the Ethereum 1.0 version, the DeFi boom has pushed the gas fee to a high point since 2018 and has begun to endanger the security of the Ethereum system. There are large uncertainties. So to a certain extent, it provides space for the current development of Polkadot.
Of course, the launch of Ethereum 2.0 can alleviate the current pain points to a certain extent, but it remains to be seen whether the problem can be completely solved.
At the same time, it should be noted that the Ethereum 2.0 version named upgrade is actually a new chain. The level of ecological construction is similar to the starting point of Polkadot. The most obvious thing is that the projects in the 1.0 version of the ecology need to be migrated to the 2.0 version to rebuild , the related cost is comparable to that of developing on a new chain, and as long as Ethereum is upgraded once, the ecological project needs to undergo a major relocation, which not only consumes costs but also bears the security risks of data and asset migration.
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many challenges
However, according to Toya, who is in charge of Nervos ecological construction and a former member of the Ethereum Foundation, even if the progress of Ethereum 2.0 is slow, it may be at least two years before the official launch, but everyone cannot predict the development of Polkadot within these two years Therefore, based on the current situation alone, the community first-mover advantage of Ethereum 1.0 is still very strong, and it is difficult for Polkadot to shake its position just by fighting for TPS and telling cross-chain stories.
In fact, from a competitive perspective, the pressure on Polkadot generally comes from two aspects. One is that Ethereum has a first-mover advantage. Version 1.0 has a prosperous ecology and many applications. Although it causes operational efficiency problems, at least enough projects are running and bring liquidity; the second is the isomorphic sharding launched by Ethereum 2.0 The solution is to solve the aforementioned problems, and with the support of the market, it is difficult for developers not to continue to choose to use it.
Even though the current Polkadot ecology has gathered many ecological projects, most of them are incubated for themselves. There is a high probability that more high-quality applications need to be absorbed to verify the technical feasibility and build an ecological map with actual liquidity.
Of course, in addition to the challenges brought by opponents, the price trend of the secondary market will also affect its development to a certain extent. For example, the Polkadot mainnet is launched as scheduled. Affected by the good news, DOT may be given a higher price than the current popularity. On the contrary, if the main network fails to go online as scheduled, the current secondary market heat may be overdrawn in advance. At that time, the performance of DOT in the secondary market may affect investor confidence and may affect development to a certain extent. Sufficient funds are needed, after all, the public chain is the most expensive track.
