Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlockVC（ID：blockvcfund）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
In the past week, the international gold price has suddenly soared, breaking through 1920 US dollars, surpassing the highest point of the last round of gold bull market in 2011, setting a new record high after 9 years. Since 2019, benefiting from the global financial turmoil and the continuous easing of the Fed since the epidemic, gold has been on a steady upward trend. However, the price of gold and silver has suddenly strengthened in the past week, mainly because the trading logic of the "weak dollar" ushered in an inflection point .
Data source: Tradingview
image descriptionData source: TradingviewAs can be seen from the above chart, the price of gold and the U.S. dollar index show a very obvious negative correlation. The U.S. dollar index has recently weakened sharply, which has triggered a strong reaction in the price of gold. BlockVC Strategy Research in July Strategy Weekly Report
Zhong emphasized the need to pay attention to the long-term and medium-term weak dollar as the main factor affecting asset allocation. The continued aggravation of the epidemic in the United States, the slow economic recovery, and the expansion of fiscal debt all require the dollar to remain weak.
Recently, international macro trends have also emerged that are conducive to the depreciation of the US dollar, including the relatively weak economic recovery and high deficit in the US, the EU's plan to issue common bonds to boost the euro, and the rise of a new round of friction between China and the US. As can be seen from the figure below, in this round of global easing in response to the challenge of the epidemic, the easing is the most obvious and the largest contributor is the easing of the US dollar. As the US dollar turns to a trend of depreciation, a large amount of US dollar liquidity will overflow from US dollar assets and flow into gold , silver and other precious metals, as well as securities assets in emerging markets, seek higher risk premiums, thus becoming the logical main line of asset allocation in the next stage.
Data source: Dunhe Asset Management
However, the biggest beneficiary under the weak dollar is that the digital currency market represented by Bitcoin is recovering rapidly, and the small-scale DeFi fever is shifting to large market capitalization currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. BlockVC strategy research believes that the monthly level The currency market is about to start, and investors in the digital currency market will soon usher in a monthly market that is worth looking forward to.
The low-volatility pattern ushered in an inflection point
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Data source: BitMEX
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Data source: TradingView
Data source: TradingView
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Bitcoin Recognized as Currency, Ethereum 2.0 Lights Emotions
What makes many digital currency investors more excited is the upcoming Ethereum 2.0 event. As a major event in the digital currency industry with no less influence than the halving of Bitcoin, Ethereum has recently led the market to break through as a leader. The next stage is Ethereum A series of continuous progress of Fang 2.0 will continue to stimulate market enthusiasm and investor sentiment, and stimulate the overall long-term vitality of the market.
The rhyme of history has begun to emerge. Historically, within a quarter after halving, Bitcoin has often regained its upward trend. At this moment, the conditions for Bitcoin to start a new round of mid-line market are ready, and liquidity and risk appetite are returning. , we expect that Bitcoin will break through after oscillating and digesting the resistance of $10,500, bringing a long-lost and elated monthly sun.
