Editor's Note: This article comes fromInterchain Pulse (ID: HiveEcon), Author: Liangshan Huarong, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

Interchain Pulse (ID: HiveEcon)

Interchain Pulse (ID: HiveEcon)

History did not repeat itself. The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving was held for the third time, and the price did not rise but fell.

Investors always like to use past production reduction trends and historical data to judge the future price of Bitcoin, but in fact, this method does not always work. As Rainer Zitelmann, a doctor of sociology and history in Germany, pointed out in the book "The Logic of the Rich", if you invest from the perspective of a rear-view mirror and use past data as the basis for future investment, you will inevitably enter Inertial cognitive misunderstanding.

In fact, so far, the price trend of Bitcoin is not simply dependent on changes in supply and demand, but more on the value behind it.

From the electronic payment system originally proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto, to the underlying public chain, to today's "digital gold", it seems that before each halving, the development path of Bitcoin will face adjustments, and the value it carries is constantly changing. Variety.

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With three halvings, Bitcoin is getting farther and farther away from its ideal

In Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper, the original ideal of Bitcoin was to become a peer-to-peer electronic cash system based on encrypted proof rather than trust, which is used to replace the electronic payment method that completely relies on financial institutions as trusted third parties in Internet commerce.

Based on this consensus and ideal, Bitcoin has attracted a group of believers, and has also given birth to the mining industry.

In order to prevent hyperinflation, the white paper not only limits the total number of bitcoins to 21 million, but also sets the bitcoin reward to be halved every 210,000 blocks.

At the time of the first halving, Bitcoin was still denounced by mainstream society as the "fraud of the century." Although about 10.5 million bitcoins had been dug up that year, the market value in circulation was less than US$1 billion, and most of the holders were native believers and miners.

But at that time, the consensus among believers was that Bitcoin would become an electronic transaction system that does not need to rely on trust, and it would be used to replace global financial institutions as a trusted third-party payment method, and its future value potential was full of imagination.

In November 2012, Bitcoin was halved for the first time, and the price continued to skyrocket. As of April 9, 2013, the price of Bitcoin rose from $7 before the halving to $195, a surge of nearly 27 times.

By the time of the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin's competitor, Ethereum, had been born, allowing anyone to build and use decentralized applications on the platform that run on blockchain technology.

At this time, there were also differences in the Bitcoin community, but at the same time, Bitcoin also began to enter the 2.0 stage. Bitcoin developers hope that it can break through block restrictions and become a more advanced underlying technology public chain, not just a payment system.

At this time, the core value carried by Bitcoin has also changed. Although its TPS performance is far inferior to that of Ethereum, due to the previous "wealth creation effect" and Ethereum quickly brought the concept of cryptocurrency and blockchain into the public eye , the prospect of Bitcoin as the underlying technology public chain is still optimistic.

After the previous two halvings, the unprecedented return on investment has attracted a large number of miners, financial practitioners and even institutional investors. Coupled with the complex and diversified world economic environment, the value and main functions carried by Bitcoin have changed again, and more and more investors have begun to define Bitcoin as "digital gold" with hedging functions and collection value.

At this time, the core value of Bitcoin is no longer simply based on changes in supply and demand. What carries its value is whether the story of "digital gold" is perfect and whether more and more people believe it. And the factors affecting bitcoin price fluctuations are more complicated and diversified.

Judging from this situation, the halving effect of Bitcoin is obviously invalid. According to the cryptocurrency data website Feixiaohao, as of 13:00, the price of Bitcoin has only increased by 0.24% in the past 24 hours. And just two days before the halving, there was a half-hour plunge of $1,000.

From electronic payment, to the underlying technology public chain, and then to "digital gold", the core value and main functions of Bitcoin have also undergone three changes, and Bitcoin is getting farther and farther away from its original ideal.

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The impact of the third halving: the mining industry reshuffles and investors leave the market

Mutual Chain Pulse noticed that after the third halving of Bitcoin, several mining machines have reached the shutdown price, including the most classic Antminer S9 series mining machines, which may withdraw from the stage of history forever. In addition, the daily net income of new miners such as Antminer S17 series and Whatsminer M31s series has been less than 10 yuan. Antminer T17, Whatsminer M21s, Innosilicon T3, Avalon A1045 and many other mining machines have reached the shutdown price.

(Source: Mining Coin Network)

After Bitcoin is halved, as the computing power of the entire network continues to increase, the difficulty of mining will further increase. According to BTC.com data, the difficulty of mining Bitcoin on the entire network has reached an unprecedented 16.10 trillion (T), which is close to the highest level in history.

According to Bitcoinist analysis, after Bitcoin is halved, only if its price range is between $12,000 and $15,000 can Bitcoin miners continue to be profitable.

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(Source: BTC.com)

"The first 1008 blocks after the halving are much more difficult than before the halving, so weaker miners (about 30%) may be forced to shut down most of their mining machines after the halving." Poolin, a large encryption mining pool, vice president President Torre recently pointed out in an interview with the media that the difficulty of mining is adjusted every 2016 blocks, or approximately every two weeks, which means that less efficient miners may "exit the game" within a week after halving .