After all, digital currency cannot escape the disaster of the epidemic.

It plummeted 45% in one day, and fell by two-thirds within a week, and the contract liquidation was about 1.5 billion US dollars. The tragedy of the digital currency market can only be described as "bloodbathed and massacred".

And Uncle Kai was unscathed in this big reshuffle.

When the epidemic gradually fermented on February 2, Uncle Kai published an article on the public account "How does the epidemic affect the blockchain》, talked about the far-reaching impact of the epidemic on digital currency and blockchain, and finally posted an unprecedented operation. At a price of more than 9,000, the Bitcoin and all other currencies in several accounts were completely emptied, even if the currency price later Rushing to 10,000, still unmoved, insisting on waiting and watching with short positions.

Uncle Kai's three main points a month ago, after the test of facts, are still applicable today:

1. The currency circle cannot be alone, and will eventually be affected by the liquidity of funds caused by the epidemic.

2. Bitcoin is no longer digital gold and has no hedging function.

3. Both digital currency and viruses have no borders, and their impact is also global and mutual. It is futile to distinguish between domestic and foreign.

In the past two days, the market has been turbulent. Many financial and currency media interviewed Uncle Kai. Uncle Kai sorted out the main points and briefly answered a few questions that everyone cares about.

Question 1: Why did Bitcoin plummet, and why did it fall so deeply?

The main reason isThe spread of panic in the epidemic has triggered the instinct of capital hedging, and large-scale hedging sell-offs have caused a stampede. In addition to this main reason, there are four important factors that contributed to the unprecedented plunge of Bitcoin.

First, the market has wrong expectations about the attributes of Bitcoin.

For a long time, Bitcoin has been regarded as digital gold and a safe haven in times of market turmoil. This illusion was instantly shattered under the extreme test of the market. Not only did Bitcoin fail to function as a safe-haven asset, but it itself was a huge source of risk. In this case, the huge anxiety and consternation of holders were multiplied on the panic caused by the epidemic, resulting in capital flight stampede.

In fact, Uncle Kai clearly informed a month ago that digital currency is more of an alternative financial product in the classification of financial assets, and after all, it cannot escape the impact of tight liquidity in the financial market.

Second, the digital currency represented by Bitcoin has no anchored value basis.

So far no one in the world has been able to come up with a convincing basis for bitcoin pricing, and everyone is still in the dark about the true intrinsic value of bitcoin. For example, oil, real estate and Moutai stocks, as mature investment products, all have a recognized pricing basis, and their intrinsic value can be calculated. Even if their prices fluctuate due to the extreme external environment, they still fluctuate around the value after all. If the price is significantly lower than the value, many long-term value investors will choose the opportunity to buy, and vice versa. This is like a big storm on the sea. Even if a ship with an anchor shakes up and down, it will not be blown away by the storm, because the anchor is involved. At this time, Bitcoin is a ship without an anchor. Wherever the wind and waves blow, the ship will be blown there.

Third, practitioners of digital currency are relatively young and have not experienced the baptism of real financial turmoil.

Digital currency is the paradise of the post-90s generation. Most of them have not personally experienced major financial turmoil: the 1987 stock market crash in the last century, the Southeast Asian economic crisis in the 1990s, the NASDAQ technology bubble at the beginning of this century, and the 2008 financial turmoil. Those who have experienced these big storms will understand that in extreme cases, many common senses may become paradoxes. For example, gold is a recognized and tested safe-haven asset, but in extreme cases, due to the collapse of liquidity caused by panic, gold will be sold into cash and government bonds. During several financial crises, gold has also fallen sharply, not to mention Bitcoin. .

Fourth, digital currency derivatives have developed rapidly in the past two years.

Highly leveraged capital lending and numerous derivatives exacerbate market volatility. Most derivatives investors do not use it to hedge spot risks, but use it to make a big fortune with a small amount. Therefore, in extreme market conditions, the volatility will be greatly magnified by leverage.

Question 2: What are the current factors affecting Bitcoin?

There are many factors that affect the price of Bitcoin: such as mining computing power, investment demand, etc., which play different roles in different periods, but one thing is certain. The current factors affecting Bitcoin are public sentiment, or the panic index, and others. Fundamental factors temporarily become secondary factors.

Question 3: Will Bitcoin still have hedging properties in the future?

The myth of Bitcoin’s safe-haven function has been completely shattered this time.In fact, after the emergence and popularization of stablecoins, the few remaining hedging functions of Bitcoin were completely replaced.

This has a profound impact on the positioning of Bitcoin in the future. Before that, some people bought Bitcoin for investment and speculation, while others bought it for hedging and circulation in times of crisis. After this bloody lesson, no one in the market should still fantasize about Bitcoin as a hedging assets, which has a negative impact on long-term demand.

By the way, Uncle Kai would like to give you benefits, the hedging attributes of financial assets are sorted from weak to strong:

Financial derivatives and digital currency, stocks, corporate bonds, stable coins, gold, treasury bonds (U.S. Treasury bonds are the best), cash (the U.S. dollar is the best)

Question 4: To what extent will the upstream and downstream industrial chains of the blockchain be affected?

There is no doubt about the negative impact on the upstream and downstream of the industry.From the current point of view, the top players should take measures to preserve their strength to survive the cold winter. Small and medium players should prepare for the worst, and the possibility of new players entering the game is almost zero.

Everyone should also beware of the sharp drop triggering subsequent industry shocks.Just like an earthquake, there will be many aftershocks after a major earthquake. Because many hidden dangers and deep-buried mines in the early stage will slowly ferment and finally explode due to the big market shocks.

Question 5: Is there still a halving market?

The halving market has always been overestimated.

If almost everyone in the currency circle is looking forward to the halving market and is ready for it, then the halving market has already passed. Let me ask the currency circle in the second half of last year and the beginning of this year, which time Bitcoin rose and everyone shouted that the halving market was coming. Many times it is the wishful thinking of Bitcoin holders.

Although the price of Bitcoin has risen during halving in history, this logic lacks scientific and rigorous argumentation. There were too many factors affecting the price of the currency at that time, and we cannot attribute all the rise in the price of the currency to the halving. Just like the rooster crows and the sun rises, people will not attribute the cause of the sun rise to the rooster crowing.This kind of truth is obvious to professional investors, but it is a pity that digital currency investors are not professional enough, and many people follow blindly.

It's a pity that the expected halving market did not come, but the "market" in which the currency price was halved in one day came.

Question 6: This time some people think that the bankers jointly cut the leeks from retail investors. Is it possible?

Human weakness: I like to attribute unknown things to conspiracy theories.People in the currency circle think this way: the big drop is because the dealers jointly harvested leeks, as if the loss of money is due to being harvested, not because of their own misjudgment, the psychology of leeks is better.

In fact, under the global liquidity turmoil, the dealers or the so-called big players were hurt more deeply. A plunge of this magnitude cannot be manipulated by a few bankers or giant whales. From another perspective, even if the banker is capable, he will not be so stupid as to manipulate the market and jointly cut leeks under such extreme market conditions. If the banker is a pirate, do you think the pirates would be stupid enough to hijack a merchant ship during a storm at sea? Maybe they were harvested by the storm as leeks before they set off.

The storm is as fair as the epidemic, regardless of national borders and races, no matter whether it is a retail investor or an expert, it will be harvested.

Question 7: How has Uncle Kai operated recently?

If you want to see Uncle Kai operate, you will be disappointed.

This time I will not post my own operation again, the reason is very simple,It is the most stupid thing for analysts to post their own operations. If you help others avoid the plunge, or make money, others will thank you verbally at most, and most of them will not even thank you. At the beginning of February, when Bitcoin hit 10,000, everyone was bullish, but Uncle Kai was bearish alone, and he was bullied on various occasions, which was thankless. Then in case the analysis is wrong and the direction is wrong (this kind of thing is not impossible), others lose money or make less money, some will not say it, feel unhappy or curse secretly. Therefore, Uncle Kai didn’t see any reason to post and share with everyone.

Let me explain, the last posting operation was Uncle Kai's unique one. Because of the epidemic, he was trapped at home and took the wrong medicine in a hurry. It is a time worth taking warning.I will no longer make stupid posting operations in the future.

Before any of you ask me how to operate, please measure how strong your relationship with Uncle Kai is. When ordinary people ask, Uncle Kai just ignores it. I'm relatively familiar but I don't have a good relationship, so I can only play haha ​​and say:watch more and move less. A person with a strong relationship. . . Well, it depends.

Finally, I will give a recent operation reminder to a famous painting handed down from generation to generation. Whether you can read it or not depends on your own understanding (and artistic accomplishment, ha)

"The Raft of the Medusa" is a pioneer of the French Romantic school: an oil painting created by Géricault in 1819, which is now in the Louvre Museum in Paris, France.