Sharing guest Ming Guo profile:
- Founder of the blockchain project Soteria;
- was a rocket scientist;
- Worked as a software engineer in Silicon Valley for 20 years;
- Has made many contributions in high-performance algorithm design, network protocol and trading system business;
- Entrepreneurial incubation investor, co-founded Shenzhen Make Mountain Accelerator, using Silicon Valley-Shenzhen resources to help smart hardware startups around the world.
Claire:
Good evening, friends! I am Claire Wu, the founder of [Magic Piper Technology Development Community]. Tonight, I am honored to be the guest host of the theme sharing "SSDE (1) Twilight of Resource Binding Credit Economy". It was very lively tonight, with about 60 communities simulcasting together. First of all, I would like to thank the organizers [Unknown Heights] and Big Snake, [Token Observation], [Magic Piper Technology Development Community] and [Token Economic Practice Alliance], and also thank the guest speaker Mr. Ming Guo from the United States Come from afar to share evangelistically on different themes. These shared contents have brought us the latest thoughts and technologies from all over the world, which is very inspiring! Thank you for the platform of the group owners, all the media that supported this topic sharing, and of course, the most important thing to thank is the friends who watched and followed this event.
Claire:
At present, we are at a turning point of an era. Trade protection wars and political turmoil are only superficial phenomena. To quote Ming Guo's point of view, the underlying reason may be that we are facing the depletion of "growth momentum", that is, the "demographic dividend" " and the depletion of "technical dividends". Ordinary people's awareness of privacy protection is increasing day by day. However, the collection of huge data by smart hardware betrays our privacy all the time. Should we just accept it as always, or should we stand up and defend our own rights? What kind of economic model is suitable for the era of artificial intelligence? Let us take these questions and watch tonight's theme sharing seriously. Now please Mr. Ming Guo... 👏👏👏
Ming Guo:
Hello everyone, I am Ming Guo, the founder of Soteria. The title of the live broadcast I prepared for you today is: "SSDE (1) Twilight of the resource-bound credit economy"
"SSDE (1) Twilight of resource-bound credit economy" theme sharing text:
The blockchain revolution started by Bitcoin has left an indelible mark on our lives, but it has yet to realize its full potential until today. why? Because several basic features of the "Satoshi Nakamoto Consensus" blockchain represented by Bitcoin: "decentralization", "resistance to censorship", and "trustless consensus" are in contrast to our current centralized and highly monopolized The Internet, and the "resource-bound credit economy" (our current only economic form and model) are incompatible.
This is why the rise of the Internet was extremely smooth back then, because the evolution of the original Internet into a highly monopolized commercial World Wide Web itself was the last glory of the "resource-bound credit economy", but the fundamental reason why the blockchain is so difficult to implement is because the district The block chain has "nowhere to fall"!
"Nowhere to go" is because our current development of the blockchain field and the application market have encountered bottlenecks, and the extreme volatility and chaotic hype of cryptocurrencies are also the culprits. classmates! We must jump out of our own small circle, look at the world, look at history, look at the world, look around us, look at the economy and era we are currently in~
It was the best of times, and it was the worst of times. We are at the pinnacle of human civilization, and at the same time at a new crossroads of human civilization. We enjoy the most sustained economic growth, increased wealth, and technological progress on record, while climate challenges and inequality erode our community of shared future for humanity.
The financial crisis ten years ago showed us that the impetus of the resource-bound economic system driven by credit is drying up, the fruits of economic growth are increasingly concentrated at the top of the pyramid, and monopoly has become the driving force and end of innovation. Monopoly has caused many innovations to lose their original driving force. Credit finance has eroded our economy like a cancer. This is the feast time for oligarchs, bankers and cheaters. Innovators' darkest hour. Blockchain is no exception.
"I guessed the beginning right, but I couldn't guess the ending" (Said by Supreme Treasure in A Chinese Journey to the West)
Today, I begin to tell you the story after "the ending".
I believe that everyone, like me, is living in an era of "great change", but not all human beings in all eras have our "luck".
If you don't think we are in such an era, you can't feel or are unwilling to admit "change", then congratulations, you are a lucky one, because your memory is only 7 minutes, you are a naturally optimistic and happy "leek" Embryo". You live in the present, you believe the world will always be the way it is now, and the economists of this era have given us the answers to all our questions (how else would they get a Nobel Prize?).
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The great Milton Friedman 👆, Nobel laureate
"Universal market", "invisible hand" - the effective adjustment mechanism of the market is to make the game parties in the market return from imbalance to balance, such as "Nash equilibrium". But we also know that the "efficiency" and "equilibrium" of the market are not natural, but are closely related to the characteristics of market participants and the market environment.
I like to look at economic phenomena from the perspective of physics. If we regard the "effective" and "balanced" market, or "economy", as an "elastic body", then any excessive "stretch" or "overshoot" of the market may make the market lose its elasticity , or even break and collapse. Unfortunately, our current economy - "resource-bound credit economy" is in an "extreme" state of losing elasticity, and "fracture" and "collapse" may appear at any time.
why? Because there is a huge contradiction between theory and reality. If one of the first conditions of the "universal market"/economy that gives us "equality" (equal opportunity) is "equilibrium" (self-regulation, "universal hand"), our economy (resource-bound credit economy body) is by no means “equilibrium”. Instead, our economy is driven by:
"Blockchain Impossible Trinity"? (Let me tell you what's good about you?) Nope. This triangle has a much longer history.
"𝚫"—Delta is the price difference, profit (cut leeks?)
Milton Friedman said, "𝚫" will bring us "freedom". He doesn't mention "prosperity" or "happiness," but I think he takes the latter two to be self-explanatory. But what about "equilibrium"? In his time, it was the era when efficient and globalized "markets" were flourishing and shining, and "equilibrium" was not a problem that everyone cared about. Unfortunately, Mi Lao passed away at the age of 94 in 2006, only two years away from the 2008 financial crisis.
Ten years have passed, and the era of "equilibrium" is getting farther and farther away from us. Or let us go back three hundred years ago, back to the beginning. Yes, that's when we found the secret to "wealth":
We have entered the era of resource-bound credit economies. A characteristic of a resource-bound economy is the finiteness of resources (not just natural resources) and the dynamics of economic development: a structural contradiction of "𝚫": "limitation" vs. "growth".
Let me tell the "growth" story first, and then "𝚫".
Since the birth of human society, "growth" was not a goal "pursued" by the whole society. The goals pursued by human beings in our concept, such as "pursuing happiness", seem to have nothing to do with "growth". When Thomas Jackson wrote "The Pursuit of Happiness" 243 years ago, he must not have had "growth" in mind. Is there any country in the world whose constitution includes "growth"? However, since the birth of the "resource-bound credit economy" model 300 years ago (now the world's economies are basically "resource-bound credit economies"), we have all been led by a rule that has nothing to do with human "pursuit of happiness" The "growth curve" has been kidnapped.
There is actually a small caveat here that is very important: maybe the "growth curve" is not the problem? Because we can also say that the human pursuit of happiness is endless, right? So maybe the key is what do we put on this "growth curve"? So what if we put "happiness" on this growth curve? However, the problem is still not solved: you must first define "happiness".
"What is happiness? ("Xiao Que Xing" version, thanks to "Unknown Heights" | "Diu Diu" for the wonderful summary)
Happiness is that you don’t have to think about the house price to want to die;
Happiness is being able to marry because of love;
Happiness is being able to do a lot of things you like besides working from 9 to 5...
I'm sorry, but I'm here to bring you back to reality... To put "happiness" on the curve of "growth", can we define "happiness" as "owning" or even "possessing" resources?
It's a pity that "little luck" can't match the cold reality... The social values of our current "resource-bound credit economy" define "happiness" as "owning" and "possessing" resources. Our economic and social values are in opposition to the previous idyllic "little fortunes". Defining "happiness" as "owning" resources is the social value of our "resource-bound" economic system.
Let's continue the dialogue with "Diudiu", "Little Quexing" has not given up:
I am not young anymore, I still want to do what I like;
Being able to have time to think about more valuable things, instead of spending all your time making screws, loses the meaning of being human...
Let me comment on:
"Use all the time to be a screw, and lose the meaning of being human" → become a slave of "𝚫" → the value of "resource-bound credit economy".
"I want to do what I like, and I have time to think about more valuable things" → "Thinking interaction" the value of the new economy (hint: it is SSDE - the value of "endogenous decentralized economy").
Now, let's interpret the "curve of growth":
👆This is the "curve of growth". Horizontal axis: time; vertical axis: value. Value can be understood as: wealth, GDP...
In fact, for nearly three hundred years, all the politics, economy, history and ideology of our era can be explained with the above picture 👆. I'd better put the sign up:
Let me explain: For example, the rust belt represented by Trump wants to return to the time period of "middle-term possession", because the United States is now in the time period of "late-term possession": as are almost all sizable advanced economies ( I mean “sizable”, so maybe Switzerland can be excluded).
So why must our economic model be on this "growth curve"? Because if your growth model is "pursuit of 𝚫" ("pursuit of profit"), that is, the pursuit of ∆W / ∆t > 0, then the social development curve you get, that is, the "happiness curve", is such a growth Curves (this is not to review calculus with everyone). This curve (the "power law curve") is a fundamental curve that governs our values, including society's definition of "happiness."
Interestingly, the Silicon Valley investment law summed up by Peter Thiel, the boss of the Silicon Valley Paypal investment "gangster", is also this curve, which is also the "unicorn 🦄️" business model curve, if you are not pursuing this power-law growth curve , you are not a unicorn, and you are not worth investing in. Of course, his "power law curve" does not include the "END GAME" section.
Is END GAME a bubble burst? You wish...
The END GAME stage was also predicted before, but they were all wrong. It is considered to be the stage of so-called "resource exhaustion", which is what Malthus once said and the "limits to growth" of the Club of Rome in the 1970s. However, now it seems that that understanding is wrong, completely misunderstanding the connotation of "resources" in "resource binding". In fact, this exhaustion is not "resource exhaustion" in a narrow sense, especially the exhaustion of natural resources, but " The depletion of "growth power", that is, the depletion of "demographic dividend" and "technical dividend".
In fact, the exhaustion of "technical dividends" is not accurate. To be precise, it should be the exhaustion of "technical dividends" that can be supported by our resource-bound credit economy. For example, our "resource-bound credit economy" certainly cannot support an economy and society where "artificial intelligence" prevails, just as the natural agricultural socio-economic model cannot support an economy and society after the industrial revolution The same reason.
In conclusion, the END GAME stage is a time of extremes.
For example, U.S. Treasury bonds:
This is the amount of the U.S. national debt when the U.S. debt ceiling is reached on March 1 of this year. Since 2011, the U.S. national debt limit has been reached every year and has been raised every year.
One day later, on March 2, the national debt was "regularized", and the new upper limit was intelligently maintained until September.
Who said this? 👆
King Louis XVI of France.
in conclusion:
in conclusion:
For example, the real economy of the United States is plagued by excessive debt and credit, while the Internet economy is increasingly becoming a game of traffic and a business model of dopamine drugs. The "off-balance sheet economy" is full of various Ponzi schemes.
The prevalence of speculation will become a great flood that destroys the economy, which is what Marx called "the great flood". So, can we see the future? Let's look at a book first:
Fukuyama's "The End of History", however, history does not end, it just advances to a new stage. Let’s borrow Hegel’s theory of history, which is the new “economic chronology”:
The era we are in now is a "resource-bound credit economy", the fourth stage from the left 👆 What we call SSDE --"Endogenous decentralized economy", which is the last stage on the right. 👆In the "resource-bound credit economy", the value is the possession of "resources". In SSDE - "endogenous decentralized economy", the value is "thinking interaction value". that is:
Well, due to time constraints, I will stop here today. As a preview, in "SSDE (2)", I will continue to share the "three value systems" and the characteristics of the decentralized world, please continue to pay attention and watch.
Claire:
Okay, looking forward to it... 👏 Thank you very much to the guest speaker Mr. Ming Guo for bringing us the above insightful, wonderful and rich sharing. I think everyone has different opinions on this topic. Welcome to put forward in the following Q&A session Different perspectives and issues are explored.
