Editor's Note: This article comes fromTalk about Xia Kanshi (ID: huaxiakiss), Author: Hua Xia, published by Odaily with authorization.
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Editor's Note: This article comes from
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Talk about Xia Kanshi (ID: huaxiakiss
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Talk about Xia Kanshi (ID: huaxiakiss
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), Author: Hua Xia, published by Odaily with authorization.
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There is no such thing as "shooting the master to death with random guns" in the speculative market. We may laugh at some veterans and sell out in a hurry after making doubled profits. However, in the end, being able to leave the market with profits has already won most people. I have never seen a person who does not have a complete and mature trading system make money in a speculative market and leave. The market is always multi-faceted, bulls and bears are all due stages, forming the superficial rise and fall, and playing with speculators between fluctuations.
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A qualified speculator first needs to find out a trading system that suits his personality. This system is not a set of automated software, but it is somewhat similar. It is the rules that guide you when to buy, what to buy, how to buy, how to sell, how to stop loss and take profit, and how to prevent systemic risk of extinction. The similarity with software is that you need to consistently implement the system rules you have formulated and stick to them for a long time.
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A good trading system is a rule that can help you win in terms of odds and probabilities in the continuous trading process. It is not ruled out that there are extremely talented people, whose natural personality and way of thinking are suitable for speculative trading. However, what is certain is that most of you who read this article do not have this kind of talent. Then you need to seek systematic help to improve your own personality shortcomings, to draw an "actionable" framework for yourself, and a trading comfort zone that belongs exclusively to you.
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In the process of continuously improving your trading system, you need to answer several questions. The first question is "What kind of person are you?". This question requires you to ask yourself without reservation. The reason why this question is important is because "you know you are you, so you are not you", that is, after you understand what kind of character you are, you can To evade, suppress, and change some things in your personality in a targeted manner, so as to become beneficial to yourself, at this time, you are not you anymore.
What you need is not someone else's trading system, but a system that suits your personality and trading habits. Only such a system is operable for you personally. Among these character traits and habits, we have trade-offs. Not every bad habit and character needs to be discarded. There are some things that we may not be able to change in our entire life, so let’s not change them. Let our rules To adapt to it, to avoid the risks it may cause. In a word, change what you can change, and let the rules adapt to what you cannot change. For example, some people have "always buy prematurely, even buy all at once, and always rush to sell when there is a little profit, etc." These are very common habits of individual speculators.
The second question is "Which part of the market do you want to make money?". The market is divided into many parts according to different dimensions. According to the cycle, there are bulls and bears, according to the length of time, there are long, medium and short term, and according to the transaction types, there are spot futures leveraged contract lending and wealth management. Deciding which part of the money to earn is not determined by rolling the dice, but by combining the answer to the question "What kind of person are you?"
"Which part of the market do you want to make money from?" determines how you enter the market. This posture also determines your criteria for selecting the target and the signal for your decision to buy. For example, if you want to make money in the big trend, which is long-term money, then you need to focus on the research and judgment of the big trend and the analysis of the fundamentals of the target, because the biggest risk of speculation or investment is "buying in a bull market". A target with extremely poor fundamentals." If you are focusing on volatility arbitrage speculation in day trading, then you may not need to analyze the fundamentals of the project. Instead, after screening the technical indicators and delineating the target, look for a relatively low price on the hourly and minute lines. Good buy and sell points. Remember, which part of the money you are suitable for earning has something to do with your personality, so don't avoid it.
After answering the above questions, the next step is to fill in the blanks according to the framework of a complete trading system. A complete trading system usually includes:
(1) Trend judgment strategy
(2) Trading cycle selection strategy
(3) Entry strategy
(4) Stop loss strategy
(5) Take profit strategy
(6) Position management strategy
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(7) Emergency braking system
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(8) Consistent execution strategy
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There is no standard answer for each space here, and it varies from person to person. However, it must be complete and indispensable.
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Developing your own trading system is a long process, and even requires a huge cost. This cost is a loss, because your system must be able to withstand the actual test of the market. In the process of actual combat, constantly adjust the rules and parameters of the system wait. In the end, it can evolve into a unique set of "alchemy" that can help you make continuous and stable profits.
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In the process of formulating a trading system, there are several standard answers. The first one: for the market, do not predict, only follow. The so-called non-prediction does not mean not to analyze and judge, but to stop fantasizing and guessing when the trend has not come out and shows some characteristics, and focus on the market, supplemented by analysis and forecasting. For example, the trend of the market has shown obvious reversal characteristics, and the analysis obtained from the information you have obtained shows that the market will continue to rise. At this time, you should follow the market instead of sticking to your own forecast. Of course, when your forecast and the trend conveyed by the market are consistent, that is, when the probability is higher, this deserves special attention.
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The second: at the end of the market, the heavier the position, the more resolutely stop loss. The further the market goes, the closer it is to the reversal point, but this reversal point is not capable of accurate judgment for most of us, but it does not prevent us from continuing to dance with the market, so we need to set a strict stop loss position to deal with unforeseen circumstances. Know the reversal points to keep profits or continue to live in the power of the market.
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The third: about stop loss: the essence of stop loss is to accept the manifestation of market uncertainty. That is to say, no matter how we analyze and speculate, we cannot grasp all the information of the market, and considering all the factors affecting the market, then our own judgment is not absolutely accurate. It is necessary to admit the mistake and stop the loss. As for where the analysis problem is, that will be a matter later.
Fourth: About stop profit. Adhere to the mentality of "holding the handicap" and don't try to get all the profits. Getting one is probably victory. Take profit does not need to judge the position of the apex, because that has no practical significance for ordinary speculators, and it is difficult to judge right. How to take profit should come from your initial attitude when entering the market, that is, combined with your initial "positioning what cycle level is this buying" and "what is your buying criteria and logic". Then, when there is a reversal trend at this cycle level (this trend is reflected in the price), you should sell it. When the logic of your original purchase is no longer established, you should sell it. If the factors supporting the price are invalid, you should sell it. out.
