The epidemic in Wuhan has seriously affected every aspect of everyone's life. With the expansion of the situation, the World Health Organization declared this as an international public health emergency, and many countries, especially the United States, adopted a policy of closing the border channel to China. These measures have all exacerbated the negative impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy and even the world economy.

At present, the overall impact of the epidemic on the economy is not optimistic. There are different opinions on how big the impact will be. Most people predict that it will not be less than the impact of SARS. GDP will drop by 1-2 points. It must be super negative in the short and medium term. What everyone is most concerned about is how much impact it will have on their respective industries. Uncle Kai throws a brick to attract jade, and analyzes the impact on the global blockchain industry.

First of all, it is necessary to clearly position: what industry does the blockchain belong to? Strictly speaking,The blockchain belongs to the financial technology industry. If it is subdivided into the chain circle and the currency circle, the chain circle in the blockchain belongs to the technology industry, while the currency circle belongs to the financial industryTo be more precise, the currency circle belongs to the category of alternative finance in the financial category, together with gold, collectibles and commodity futures, and PE/VC investment.

We focus on the impact of the epidemic on the blockchain in the currency circle. Because the chain circle is directly affected by the epidemic, it is more about employees going to work. The main feature of the blockchain is decentralization. The technical practitioners of the blockchain are more comfortable with remote work and coordination than practitioners in other industries, so the impact is not great. On the contrary, the currency circle has a great influence on the chain circle in the medium and long term. The rise and fall of the market determines the survival of the project.secondary title

Can the currency circle be independent?

The global economy is intertwined, and all walks of life are intertwined. Tourism, catering, hotels, farming and planting, cultural entertainment, etc., which are most affected by this time, will definitely be transmitted to the financial industry, and all major types of financial asset stocks, house prices, exchange rates, and oil prices will be negatively affected. The US and Hong Kong markets are seen.

Since the currency circle is an alternative product in the financial industry, the negative impact of the financial environment will inevitably be transmitted to the currency circle. The main reason is that various markets are composed of capital connections, and funds will flow in different markets according to the situation. The prosperity of a market requires a steady stream of new funds to flow in and enter the market for transactions.

In such a situation where the negative sentiment in the financial market is serious, investors who are not normally beaten down by this wave will likely"Fly to Safety Heaven"Avoid risks, reduce leverage, throw away risky assets including digital currency, and hold safe assets, that is, "cash is king", generally holding cash (especially hard currencies such as the US dollar), gold, and government bonds. The People's Bank of China has been preparing for a big enemy, releasing a large amount of money supply to maintain market liquidity. And if some severely affected small and medium-sized business owners in the country finally go bankrupt due to overwhelming pressure, it is even more necessary to sell all assets including digital currencies.

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Explain a few frequently asked questions:

First, some people will say that Bitcoin is not known as digital gold, and everyone should buy Bitcoin when there is a panic, right?If there were no stablecoins 3 years ago, Bitcoin would have the function of digital gold.With the emergence of stablecoins, Bitcoin no longer has an obvious hedging function, but instead is a risky investment with high volatility.This also explains why the OTC price of USDT soared this week when the epidemic was severe. In addition, the current epidemic is still largely under control, and it has not yet reached the point of panic among the people. If it becomes serious enough, it may be possible to see bitcoins being snapped up due to panic. It is estimated that the probability of this happening is very small.

Second, digital currency has no borders, so the epidemic in China cannot affect global currency prices?That's right, the currency circle is considered the most globalized industry, and it is inherently borderless. Therefore, compared with the traditional financial industry, the stigma of regions and countries will be smaller. But as we all know, China dominates the individual users and projects in the currency circle, which can be calculated from the transaction activity, the number of transactions, the amount of transaction funds, the number of projects and the scale and number of exchanges, so it can be said that the Chinese The funds are the key to affecting the currency price.Therefore, the financial and other negative impacts of the currency circle caused by the epidemic will be enlarged rather than smaller because of China's influence in the currency circle.

Third, why have Bitcoin and other currencies been rising in the past few days since the outbreak?Forgive Uncle Kai for not being able to explain this phenomenon. However, it is observed that the trading volume during the Spring Festival is only about 1/3-1/2 of the usual, and the trading volume is small, so the credibility of the price trend is weak. There are also many friends in the currency circle around me who say that they have nothing to do when they are locked at home, and speculating in coins is a way to kill time. This may be one of the reasons for the rise in currency prices in the past week or two.The confirmation of the real short-term impact direction will be more clear when the trading volume returns to normal levels.

The epidemic also has some "positive" impacts on the currency circle. For example, the tightening and suppression of regulatory policies that everyone was worried about a few years ago is hardly talked about now. However, offline activities such as meetups and exchanges cannot be carried out, and technological development and innovation will also be affected, including the low point of public opinion on digital currency. Everyone’s attention is attracted by the epidemic, so these effects are all negative. More positive than less.

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How will it affect the exchange?

After the outbreak, the three major exchanges of Binance, Huobi and OK (called Oke Zhenwu) all quickly made public, and set up a public welfare fund to donate materials equivalent to 10 million yuan, which can be regarded as giving the blockchain industry a face and leading the industry. A good start, worthy of recognition and publicity.

Next, the exchange will face severe operational difficulties (employees unable to return to work, absence from work due to health reasons, etc.), declining trading volume, loss of funds, weakened liquidity and other challenges.

However, under the same conditions, Binance is the least affected.

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recent operation

It's hooliganism to just talk but not do it. Many fans strongly suggested: Uncle Kai has so much analysis, it is not as convincing as posting operations.

Before posting Uncle Kai's recent operation, I would like to remind everyone that I know my own situation, and the operation must not be done without thinking. Don't thank me if you make a profit, and carry it yourself if you lose, you are all adults.

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