Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlockVC（ID：blockvcfund）, Author: BlockVC strategy research team, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
, Author: BlockVC strategy research team, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
A cannon shot in Iraq brought us a halving price
Doomed to be an extraordinary Year of Gengzi, the first black swan flew unexpectedly.
Tension between the United States and Iran continues to escalate as the United States beheads Soleimani, a senior Iranian commander, near Baghdad airport in Iraq. Affected by the unexpected events, the Bitcoin transaction activated the market, triggering the spring turmoil ahead of schedule.
However, BlockVC’s strategic research firmly believes that the market was bad at that time, and the price trend of digital currencies represented by Bitcoin continued to fall. It is conducive to the start of the rising market, most of the people are short or heavily locked up, and the bargaining chip structure has been transformed.
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Data source: TradingView BlockVC Strategy Research
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Affected by short-term emergencies, it must be said that the halving market came nearly half a month earlier than expected, and some smart funds who were waiting for the battle dared to resolutely launch a rush when they heard the starting gun, and the halving currency took the lead in launching a strong market. As of the highest point on January 15th, BSV’s highest increase was about 3.7 times, BCH’s highest increase was about 78.4%, ETC’s highest increase was about 78.16%, DASH’s highest increase was about 2.61 times, and BTC’s highest increase was about 24%. Eye-catching gains.
From the perspective of market sentiment, because most traders have short or heavy positions in the early stage, the halving currency market basically only participates in the three to four days of the final climax, and basically fast in and fast out, most people get Short-term emotions are stimulated quickly and vented faster. Judging from the volatility structure of Bitcoin, the overall market sentiment is relatively stable, and the volatility has returned to a low point. Recently, the short-term price of Bitcoin has sharply increased. Volatility will rear its head again.
However, judging from the quarterly bitcoin delivery contract basis of OKEX contract data, the forward contract basis has spread to the market level close to May 2019, and floor traders are very optimistic about the forward expectations, which also means consistency The expectations are strong, and the possibility of continuous short-term shocks and washings will be greatly increased.
Data source: OKEX
The Bitcoin contract positions of OKEX contract data also support our judgment. At present, the Bitcoin contract positions have approached or even exceeded the previous high of September 25. The market needs to constantly oscillate and adjust to digest the consensus expectations of over-concentration.
Data source: OKEX
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Data source: OKEX
Combining the above data, BlockVC strategy research believes that the market started earlier than expected, and the pace is likely to be relatively slow. Bitcoin is currently in a good uptrend. For Bitcoin, the halving market has just been predicted. The heat is far from reaching a climax, and the overall rhythm in February is still a slow-heating expansion period, and Bitcoin will still maintain a zigzag upward trend with the bottom constantly rising.
The $8,200 line is the cost line for most investors to invest in Bitcoin in the early stage. It is also the core center of the box that has been organized for nearly a month from May to June 2019. At this position, there is a strong hold-up position to reduce positions or make profits The act of increasing positions on the cost line. This time, Bitcoin has been gaining momentum for a week since January 7 before breaking through, and it took nearly 11 days to complete the step back, which means that the mid-line price support of the $8,200 line has been welded to death and is unbreakable.
However, the $9,900 to $10,000 line above Bitcoin still has strong resistance, which is difficult to achieve overnight. The current $9,400 line has begun to enter the short-term resistance deep water area, so Bitcoin has a high probability of launching a steady correction below $10,000. It is expected that in the first half of February The ten-day period is a shock and callback stage, and it can stabilize above the 8,700-dollar line, and it will start again in the middle and late February of a moderate offensive that continues to rise to 10,000 or even 11,000 dollars.
BlockVC’s strategic research still recommends that investors stick to long-term holdings, be patient with fluctuations, and try to avoid short-term chasing ups, otherwise it is very easy to cause wear and tear during the shock stage. "Turnback running" is a necessary stage to accelerate the upward rush, which means that the line of 8,700-8,800 US dollars still needs to be tested in the short term. During the turn-back run, the volatility may increase, but it is extremely difficult to have a deep correction below the line of 8,300 US dollars. A healthy callback lasting about half a month will effectively lay a solid foundation for the accelerated rise in the later period-however, the real start of the market may still need to wait for a signal.
This signal may be a black swan or a white swan flying out of nowhere. As the uncertainty brought about by the US-Iran conflict and the Chinese epidemic continues to heat up, investors are generally concerned about economic growth and economic growth in the spring of 2020. The performance of asset prices has greatly lowered expectations. The ten-year long-term bond interest rate in the United States has given a pricing response. The real interest rate has begun to decline, which has driven up the price of gold. I'm afraid it will be suppressed.
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Data source: Bloomberg BlockVC Strategy Research
