Friends who follow everyone in the community must know that last week I published a currency price prediction on the reduction of Bitcoin production. But not long after the sharing ended, the 'black swan' incident occurred, and Xi Jinping's speech pushed the blockchain and digital currency to the center of public opinion. Then just take this opportunity, let's see if my previous prediction is still valid.
The following is an excerpt from the shared content of the Myth Technology Seminar on October 23
"The reason why I chose this topic is because I read an article by the big brother Jiang Zhuoer on the forecast of production reduction market a few days ago, and I have some insights. I will post the link of Jiang Zhuoer's article below, and interested friends can read it :
Jiang Zhuoer's conclusion is that Bitcoin will rise to $120,000 in 2011. A brief summary of the theoretical basis is: during the first two halving cycles, the lowest point and the highest point were time-symmetric to the halving point.
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(Lottery players always hope to find the rules in the disordered arrangement of numbers, although this process has long been negated by probability)
My theory is that Bitcoin's bull-bear market conversion does not follow a specific time cycle. This cycle is just a by-product of changes in market heat, driven by market heat. And if you analyze it from the fundamentals, the market heat is mainly determined by external forces rather than internal forces.
The bitcoin trend index in Google trends can well express the market enthusiasm of bitcoin outside the currency circle:
The rise of the Google Trend index —> represents the increase in public attention to Bitcoin —> the increase in the admission of OTC funds —> the rise in the price of Bitcoin, and the change in the Google Trends index is earlier than the change in the price of Bitcoin. (The reason why bitcoin is used instead of BTC is because in general, people outside the currency circle will use the keyword 'bitcoin' when they want to learn about Bitcoin on Google; while people in the currency circle will use the abbreviation 'BTC' instead )
So how do bitcoin and bitcoin prices fit?
The Google Trend index trend line fits very well with the Bitcoin price trend in the past 4 years. Almost every big fluctuation in bitcoin price can be captured from Google Trend.
What about the current google trend? As of today, it is still a downward trend. As for when the halving cycle will enter the bull market, I think you don’t need to rush to make predictions, and you can get a more accurate grasp of the bull market trend by keeping an eye on google trends.
Although I do not support Jiang Zhuoer's "halving cycle" theory, I am very much in favor of his investment strategy of fixed investment. Fixed investment comes from the traditional financial fund market and is a proven and relatively stable investment strategy. Fixed-term fixed investment has the characteristics similar to long-term savings, which can accumulate small amounts into large amounts, amortize investment costs, and reduce overall risks. It has the function of automatically increasing the price on dips and reducing the price on rallies. No matter how the market price changes, it can always obtain a relatively low average cost. Therefore, regular fixed investment can smooth out the peaks and troughs of Bitcoin prices and eliminate market volatility.
The current market is relatively sluggish, and it is doubtful whether the halving of the market in the future can attract external funds. My suggestion is to follow the google trend and build a position at a low level''
Today is October 30, 2019. Let's observe the 180-day index of Google Trends as of today:
Because the black swan happened in China this time, the Baidu index can also be used as an important reference:
Judging from the overall trend of the K-line, the boosting effect of Dada’s speech was mainly concentrated within 20 hours after the news was released. In the next few days, the favorable policies released by local governments in response to Dada’s speech did not drive the market, and it was in a sideways state.
Our conclusion is that this big speech did not directly start a big bull, or retail investors outside the circle have not yet formed a bullish sentiment, and the overall trend index is stable in a low range. While the price of the currency has not yet accelerated, the current price of the currency is very suitable for regular investment strategies.
