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This week, BTC strongly stood above $5,000, leading the market to rebound as a whole. BTC is already close to the time node of the first half year of production reduction. The development of compliance, the improvement of public recognition and the growth of penetration rate may promote the upward trend of the fourth round of price cycle.
Summary
Summary
Topic: BTC has made a strong breakthrough, and the upward cycle may start. This week, BTC made a strong breakthrough and stood above the $5,000 line, leading the market to rebound sharply. Although the market has continued to decline since 2018, the blockchain industry has developed counter-cyclically, external giants have entered the market, and applications have increased. The development of the industry will increase people's recognition of blockchain technology, and BTC will also gain stronger belief support. It is of great significance to take the lead in rebounding, bringing strong confidence to the market and the industry. BTC is in the third round of price cycle and the time node of the fourth round of price cycle. This rebound is likely to be a precursor to a large-scale shift in the market. The innovation led by BTC is constantly recognized by the mainstream society, and the penetration rate of the token market is relatively high. Large room for growth and the entry of incremental funds will push the BTC and token markets to greater glory.
Market: The market made a strong breakthrough, led by BTC. The total market value of digital tokens this week was US$176.4 billion, an increase of US$33.4 billion or 23.4% compared to last week; the average daily trading volume was US$54.62 billion, an increase of 68.1% from last week, and the average daily turnover rate was 33.3%. It was up 10.2% from last week. The current price of BTC is $5,037, with a weekly increase of 22.9% and a monthly increase of 29%. The current price of ETH is $165.5, with a weekly increase of 16.2% and a monthly increase of 19.3%. This week, the BTC balance on the exchange was 792,000, a decrease of 18,131 from last week. The ETH balance on the exchange was 9.46 million, an increase of 420,000 from last week. BTC led the market, the chips on the floor decreased slightly, while the chips of ETH continued to increase.
Risk warning: regulatory policy risk, market trend risk
Risk warning: regulatory policy risk, market trend risk
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This week, BTC made a strong breakthrough and stood above the $5,000 line, leading the market to rebound sharply. After a long bear market, the market has survived the darkest hour, and the dawn is coming. Although the market has continued to decline since 2018, the blockchain industry has developed counter-cyclically, external giants have entered the market, and applications have increased. The development of the industry will increase people's recognition of blockchain technology, and BTC will also gain stronger belief support. It is of great significance to take the lead in rebounding, bringing strong confidence to the market and the industry. BTC is in the third round of price cycle and the time node of the fourth round of price cycle. This rebound is likely to be a precursor to a large-scale shift in the market. The innovation led by BTC is constantly recognized by the mainstream society, and the penetration rate of the token market is relatively high. Large room for growth and the entry of incremental funds will push the BTC and token markets to greater glory.
1 Topic: BTC has a strong breakthrough, and the upward cycle may start
After a long bear market, BTC finally became a blockbuster. Not only did it break through the previous high this week, but it also temporarily stood on the $5,000 line, leaving the bottom range. After the long decline from 2018 to the present, many people have lost hope and left the market sadly, and those who stick to the market have also experienced a long period of suffering. The downturn not only caused heavy losses to investors, but also made many people lose confidence, but we were not defeated in the end. Now, as BTC accelerates out of the bottom range, the market finally sees a glimmer of dawn.
1.1 Faith has not collapsed, and the industry is flying against the wind
After a long bear market, BTC's faith has not collapsed due to the price drop. 2018 is destined to be a sad memory for investors in the token market. After the market hit a high at the beginning of the year, it began a long decline. Although there was a rebound of more than 50% in the middle, the maximum decline of BTC relative to the high point reached 84%, unchanged from the previous round of bear market. At the same time, at the most critical end of the year, BCH had a hard fork and a computing power war. In the end, there was no winner in this war. The BCH community split. Both new varieties came to the edge of the cliff and became the fuse of the market crash. . Beginning in November, the market fell sharply again, even BTC was cut in half, many people’s psychological defenses were broken, the market released a huge amount, and some investors left the market. However, the vitality of the token market is still very tenacious. The consensus on the blockchain has not collapsed due to the drop in asset prices. Many people are still sticking to it, and their beliefs have not yet collapsed. After BTC hit a low of $3,155 in December, it gradually bottomed out, and the market began to pick up.
The blockchain industry has developed counter-cyclically, external giants have entered the market, and landing applications have increased. Although the token market has been in a bear market since 2018, and the blockchain industry has seen a certain degree of resurgence, the exploration of external institutions has not stopped, and even the phenomenon of counter-cyclical investment has appeared. Baidu launched its own public chain - Baidu Super Chain, Facebook and JPMorgan announced their own stable pass, Exxon Mobil and other seven energy industry giants formed a blockchain consortium to explore the application of blockchain technology in the energy industry . After the bubble burst, the industry eliminated the false and preserved the true, and heavyweight players began to enter the market. People settled down to explore the practical application of blockchain technology. The improvement of fundamentals laid the foundation for the next round of BTC bull market.
The development of the industry will increase people's recognition of blockchain technology, and BTC will also gain stronger belief support. With the development of the industry, blockchain technology will penetrate into all aspects of people's lives, and the decentralized trust model will become people's habits and instincts. As the originator of decentralized assets and the first peer-to-peer payment settlement token, BTC will gain a huge premium in recognition and belief, becoming the gold of the digital world. The prosperity of the token ecology will not divert the financial support of BTC, but will increase the attention premium of BTC by increasing the public's recognition of the blockchain, and help BTC become a universal reserve asset.
1.2 The production reduction cycle is approaching, and the penetration rate has increased to promote BTC's long-term bullishness
The BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. Now that it is approaching the time node one year before the third halving, the bottom of the cycle may have been established. The complete BTC price cycle lasts about four years, and the price upward cycle begins one year before each halving. The first BTC production was halved at the end of November 2012, and the BTC price had bottomed out in November 2011. In July 2016, BTC production was halved for the second time, and in August 2015, BTC had bottomed out. The halving of BTC sounded the clarion call for each price upward cycle attack, and the price began to accelerate its rise. At the beginning of 2019, BTC hit a low of $3,155 in this round of bear market, and the price began to rise, and recently stood at $5,000. After stepping back or oscillating to confirm the bottom, the price of BTC is likely to bottom out in the near future, and the horn of attack will be sounded again, and the market will start to rise.
The innovation led by BTC continues to evolve, and blockchain technology is gradually recognized by mainstream society. From BTC to Shanzhai Token, from Shanzhai Token to Crowdsale, each price cycle has iconic innovations and applications. The first time, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event; the second time, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the upsurge of counterfeit tokens hit, and a large number of counterfeit tokens were produced; the third time, Crowdsale It has become popular around the world, and many websites have begun to provide news and discussion communities for Crowdsale offerings. Since 2017, Crowdsale has occupied a dominant position in blockchain investment, far exceeding the investment of VCs and enterprises. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certificates, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has continued to evolve and has been accepted by mainstream views. With the opening of the fourth round of price cycle, the implementation of blockchain technology will continue to develop, and mainstream society will increase their understanding of BTC. The establishment of ETF and the development of compliance will allow institutions and other off-site funds to participate in BTC Among the token assets represented by , incremental funds have entered the market to help investors who have built positions in a bear market to cash in their profits.
The penetration rate of BTC and the token market has a large room for growth, and the entry of incremental funds will promote BTC to achieve greater glory. From the experience of mature markets, the increase in the number of investors entering the market will greatly boost the price of assets. Historically, the peak of the increase in the number of A-share accounts has been highly synchronized with the peak of the increase in the year, and investors running into the market have created a huge profit-making effect. It is estimated that the number of investors in the domestic token market is only 5 million, while the number of investors in the stock market has reached 148 million. The situation in other countries should be similar, and the scale of investors in the token market still has a lot of room for growth. In the next upward cycle, BTC is expected to break through the current state and become an investment product widely recognized by the public. A large number of new investors will boost the height of the BTC boom cycle, and a broader consensus will be established. BTC may Cost more general reserve assets.
However, the short-term increase of BTC is too large, and the top is facing the pressure of the intensive trading area of 6,000 US dollars, and there may be adjustment pressure in the short term. Although we are optimistic about the long-term value and cyclical trading opportunities of BTC, the potential short-term downward pressure should not be underestimated. If BTC directly breaks through and rises, then the probability of collapse is relatively high, and we do not recommend blindly chasing the rise at this position. On the contrary, if there is an appropriate adjustment, you can look for opportunities to buy low after it stabilizes.
2 Quotes: A strong breakthrough in the market
2.1 The overall market: sideways adjustment after a strong breakthrough
The total market value of digital tokens this week was US$176.4 billion, an increase of US$33.4 billion or 23.4% compared to last week. This week, the mainstream tokens broke through one after another, and the market is relatively prosperous. BTC led the rise and is currently maintaining a sideways adjustment.
The average daily turnover of the digital token market was US$54.62 billion, an increase of 68.1% from last week, and the average daily turnover rate was 33.3%, an increase of 10.2% from last week. The market fluctuated violently this week, the trading activity increased significantly, and the market sentiment was good.
This week, the BTC balance on the exchange was 792,000, a decrease of 18,131 from last week. The balance of ETH on the exchange was 9.46 million, an increase of 420,000 from last week. BTC chips decreased slightly, while ETH chips continued to increase, which to a certain extent promoted the trend of differentiation between the two.
The USDT market cap is $2.09 billion, an increase of $6.64 million from last week. USDT has a slight premium, and the stock has risen moderately.
2.2 Core Tokens: All mainstream varieties rose, led by BTC
The current price of BTC is $5,037, with a weekly increase of 22.9% and a monthly increase of 29%. This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC was 15.5 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 18.7%. BTC is the leader of this week's rise, driving the market out of a strong rebound.
The current price of ETH is $165.5, with a weekly increase of 16.2% and a monthly increase of 19.3%. This week, the average daily trading volume of ETH was 7.13 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 43.4%. ETH is relatively weak this week, and the rebound is weaker than BTC.
The current price of XRP is $0.362, with a weekly increase of 17.5% and a monthly increase of 14.1%. The average daily trading volume of XRP this week was $1.62 billion, with an average daily turnover rate of 11.4%. After a long period of silence, XRP rebounded strongly with the market and went out of independent market over the weekend, but failed to drive the market.
The current price of EOS is $5.34, with a weekly increase of 24.6% and a monthly increase of 41.7%. The average daily trading volume of EOS this week was $3.06 billion, with an average daily turnover rate of 69.4%. EOS continues to be strong, and is now close to the previous platform, and the oversold rebound has a good continuity.
The monthly volatility of major tokens generally rose this week. The monthly volatility of BTC was 16.7%, an increase of 10.3% from last week; the monthly volatility of ETH was 17.7%, an increase of 5.3% from last week; the monthly volatility of EOS was 48.4%, An increase of 1.8% from last week; the monthly volatility of BCH is 43.6%, an increase of 24.9% from last week. This week, the volatility of mainstream tokens in the market has increased, and the market has generally warmed up.
2.3 Market view: the market is heating up and embracing changes
After the shock adjustment, the market did not choose to kill, and the market warming is expected to further heat up. After the long bear market in 2018, the token market started to build a bottom. After experiencing a wave of rebound at the beginning of the year, the market has undergone a long-term shock adjustment. At the threshold of choosing a direction, BTC made a strong breakthrough and established a medium-term direction. Although there may still be fluctuations in the market outlook, it can be considered that the bear market has become history and the market is about to enter a booming market. Although the short-term increase is relatively large, there may be adjustments in the future, but at that time it is a good opportunity to increase positions. We should change our pessimistic attitude and embrace the new cycle.
The implementation of technology applications, the development of compliance and the increase in penetration rate will promote the fourth round of BTC upward cycle. Although the market was sluggish in 2018, the industry did not stand still, but continued to develop, and the application landing progressed rapidly. At the same time, compliance explorations such as ETFs and regulated stable tokens are gradually advancing. Traditional industry giants such as Facebook, JPMorgan, and ExxonMobil are gradually deploying. The fundamentals of token assets continue to improve. The market has undergone a process of transformation. Projects are gradually disappearing, and serious projects are growing against the wind, laying a solid foundation for a strong rebound. Now, the market has come to the period of gradually realizing the development dividend, and the fourth round of BTC price cycle will bring wealth opportunities to investors.
3 Output and popularity: Computing power stabilizes, attention rises
The computing power of BTC is stable; the computing power of ETH has stopped falling, but it still drops slightly throughout the week. BTC mining remained unchanged this week at 6.379T. The daily average computing power this week was 45.8EH/s, a decrease of 0.43EH/s from last week; the downward trend of ETH computing power has temporarily stopped, but this week is still lower than last week. In 1821, the average computing power was 142.3TH/S, a decrease of about 1.7TH/S. BTC mining has basically remained stable. Although ETH has declined this week, the trend has temporarily stabilized.
This week, according to Google Trends, the search popularity of the term Bitcoin is 13, and the search popularity of Ethereum is 9, a significant increase. The degree of public attention has risen with the warming of the market, but it still remains at a relatively low level.
4Industry news: the exchange is making great strides, ETC plans to upgrade
4.1 OKEx Announces OK Jumpstart Rules and First Project
On the afternoon of April 2nd, OKEx officially announced the OKJumpstart sales rules on its official website. According to the rules, it can be known that OK Jumpstart will be sold in the form of reservation winning, and OKB is the only token that can be used for reservation and payment. In addition, according to the user's effective OKB holdings in the past seven days, different winning coefficients from 0 to 5 will be obtained. The greater the winning coefficient, the higher the probability of winning the lottery. The minimum holding position of each account is 500 OKB, and the maximum is 2,500 OKB. In addition, OKEx announced on April 1 that its first OK Jumpstart project is Block Cloud (BLOC), but the specific launch time is still unknown.
4.2 Binance will establish a legal currency exchange in Singapore
On April 4, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao announced the opening of a new cryptocurrency exchange in Singapore at the Deconomy event in Seoul, South Korea. At the same time, the Twitter account of the Binance exchange also disclosed the matter simultaneously: "Binance Singapore (Binance Singapore) will be launched in April, it is our next legal currency/token exchange, and it plans to provide trading services that support Singapore dollars .”
In September last year, Changpeng Zhao revealed his plan to build a new trading platform in Singapore when he attended the CoinDesk Consensus Conference. He also said that Binance would set up fiat/digital token exchanges on every continent. Singapore is one of the most friendly countries for digital assets in the world, and choosing to open a legal currency exchange in Singapore is a relatively safe first step. After experiencing the regulatory storm, fiat currency exchanges have been reborn and will continue to develop in the context of compliance.
4.3 ETC Community Proposal for Atlantis Hard Fork
Donald McIntyre, one of ETC's most active contributors, posted a blog message saying that some participants in the ETC ecosystem held a conference call to discuss the hard fork of Atlantis (Atlantis), and the results of the discussion were included in the ETC improvement proposal ( ECIP) 1054 is outlined.
