Odaily News The Federal Reserve has started a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020. (Jinshi)

Odaily News The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit) as of September 18 is 5%, expected to be 5.25%, and the previous value is 5.50%. The Fed's dot plot shows that the median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 is 4.4%, compared with 5.1% previously. The Fed cut interest rates for the first time, and spot gold rose by nearly $20 in the short term, while the US dollar index DXY fell by 40 points in the short term. The Federal Reserve FOMC statement: The risks facing employment and inflation targets are in a balanced state. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Federal Reserve FOMC statement: The members passed the interest rate decision with an 11-1 vote ratio, and the last meeting was unanimous. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50BP for the first time. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up 0.79%, the S&P 500 is up 0.86%, and the Nasdaq is up 0.98%. The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that among the 19 officials, 2 officials believe that there should be no further interest rate cuts in 2024 after this meeting, 7 officials believe that there should be another 25 basis point cut in 2024, 9 officials believe that there should be another 50 basis point cut in 2024, and 7 officials believe that there should be another 75 basis point cut in 2024. (Jinshi)

Odaily News "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: The Fed voted to cut interest rates by 50BP, the first rate cut since 2020, marking a bold start to the rate cut campaign. Eleven of the 12 Fed voting members supported the decision to cut interest rates, bringing the benchmark federal funds rate down to a range of 4.75% to 5%. Quarterly forecasts released on Wednesday showed that most officials expect to cut interest rates by at least 25BP at meetings in November and December. This rate cut decision firmly puts the Fed into a new phase: trying to prevent last year's rate hikes (which pushed borrowing costs to a two-decade high) from further weakening the U.S. labor market. (Jinshi)

Odaily News The Federal Reserve FOMC statement deleted the wording "it is not appropriate to lower the target range for interest rates until there is more confidence that inflation will continue to move toward 2%." (Jinshi)

Odaily News The Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points was supported by officials' shifting views on the economic outlook. Fed officials now expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% by the end of 2024, compared with their previous forecast of 4% in June. Inflation has also slowed down from June in the eyes of Fed officials. They expect 12-month PCE inflation to be 2.3%, compared with 2.6% in the last dot plot. This shift in view suggests that the Fed is paying more and more attention to the employment aspect of its dual mandate. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Fed Chairman Powell: The overall economy is strong and we are committed to maintaining strong economic development. Today, the Fed has reduced the extent of policy tightening. Our decision today reflects our growing confidence that the strong performance of the labor market can continue. The labor market has cooled down from its previous overheated state. Consumer spending has remained resilient. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Fed Chairman Powell said in a speech that the Fed can maintain a strong labor market through policy adjustments. The labor market is not the source of inflationary pressure; indicators show that the current labor market is less tight than before the outbreak; inflation has eased significantly, but is still above our target; the unemployment rate has risen, but is still low; long-term inflation expectations seem to remain stable. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: We have not set any fixed interest rate path and will hold meetings one by one to make decisions. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Fed Chairman Powell said at a press conference that there is no sign in the forecast that the Fed is rushing. If appropriate, the Fed can speed up or slow down, or even pause rate cuts. If the economy remains solid, we can slow down the pace of rate cuts. Similarly, if the labor market deteriorates, we can respond. Our forecasts are not plans or decisions, and we will adjust policies as needed. Taking all the risks into consideration, we cut interest rates by 50 basis points today. This adjustment will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market. Powell also said that if the Fed sees the non-farm payrolls report released a few days after the July resolution in advance, it may cut interest rates for the first time at the July interest rate meeting. The July non-farm payrolls report in the United States showed a weak labor market in the United States. Powell pointed out that the Federal Reserve remains firmly focused on its dual mission goals. The U.S. economy is generally strong, and the labor market has cooled from its previous overheated state. Our decision today reflects increasing confidence that the strength of the labor market can continue, and the Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining a strong economy. The unemployment rate has risen, but it is still low. The labor market environment continues to cool, the labor market is not a source of high inflationary pressure, and the downside risks to employment have increased.

Odaily News Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that it is expected that the interest rate will be cut by another 50 basis points in 2024. (Jinshi Data APP)

Odaily News Bostic of the Federal Reserve said that the latest "dot plot" shows that there are "considerable" differences in opinions within the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to achieve a neutral interest rate and tends not to rush to make judgments or assume that the inflation problem has been solved. The range of views on the future development path and the discussion on the neutral interest rate are "strong." (Jinshi)

Odaily News Fitch said it expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its November and December meetings, and that the Fed's rate cuts are likely to remain moderate overall in this round of easing. The U.S. job market is not expected to deteriorate significantly despite the Fed's rate cuts, with the U.S. federal funds target rate (upper limit) expected to fall to 4.5% by the end of this year, to 3.5% by the end of 2025, and to a neutral level of 3.0% in June 2026. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Fed's Goolsbee said that more interest rate cuts may be needed in the next year, and interest rates need to drop significantly. To achieve a soft landing, we must keep up with the situation. Being satisfied with the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut shows that the Fed is concerned about employment risks, not just inflation. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Fed's Goolsbee said that it is reasonable to start cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. The Fed is returning to the normal dual-mission mode. The current interest rate level is hundreds of basis points higher than the neutral interest rate. Before the recent rate cut, the decline in inflation means that the Fed has been tightening policy. If this continues, there will be a lot of rate cuts in the next 12 months, and there is still a long way to go to reduce interest rates to a near neutral level. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Federal Reserve Board member Bowman said, "I will continue to be cautious about further interest rate cuts. The labor market has not shown a clear weakening trend. If the labor market weakens, I will support policy adjustments." (Jinshi)

Odaily News Traders increased their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November to 50%. In addition, the U.S. dollar index DXY fell 20 points in the short term and is now at 100.57. (Jinshi)

Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 39.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 60.3%.