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2025-06-04 09:07:51
QCP: Bitcoin volatility is declining, and without a clear catalyst, it is unlikely to significantly break out of the current range
Odaily News QCP said in a post that an unexpected rise in job openings boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 approaching the psychologically important 6,000 mark ahead of the release of key non-farm payrolls data on Friday. Stable non-farm payrolls will consolidate the Fed's narrative on labor market resilience and strengthen market expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. On the trade front, the market remains on the sidelines, awaiting the expected meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump. Bitcoin (BTC) short-term volatility has declined, with spot prices remaining near the familiar $105,000 level; 1-month implied volatility has fallen below 40 volatility. In the interest rate market, China's 10-year and 30-year Treasury futures trading volume fell to the lowest level since February, reflecting a broader risk aversion and wait-and-see attitude. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in a range, with light positions and normalized skewness indicating a lack of clear directional conviction in the market. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from the middle to the far end, reflecting a similar downward trend to the VIX index and prompting some investors to engage in opportunistic long-term volatility trading. Notably, the $130,000 call option expiring in September traded at 47 volatility, showing partial market interest in the upside ahead of the third quarter. Looking ahead, the third quarter could be more challenging. Tariff-related impacts could begin to filter through macro data, while fiscal risks surrounding the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) and the debt ceiling could trigger potential headline volatility. In the absence of a clear catalyst, Bitcoin is unlikely to significantly break out of the current range.
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