Original - Odaily
Author - Nan Zhi
The OKX market shows that at 18:00 this evening, BTC began to fall from 45,400 USDT, and fell by more than 5,000 US dollars in the next three hours, with the lowest falling to 40,157 USDT. As of press time, BTC rebounded to 42,400 USDT, a 24 H drop of 7% .
Market review
Due to the recent strong market expectations for the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, Bitcoin will usher in a rapid rise after the year. On January 1, it rose from 42314 USDT to 44230 USDT, a single-day increase of 4.86%; on January 2, it rose again by 3.95 %, reaching a maximum of 45950 USDT, setting a new high in this round of market. Todays losses are back into Decembers consolidation range and notching its biggest one-day swing since October.
In the past week, none of the top ten tokens by market capitalization performed as well as Bitcoin except BNB. BNB rose 1.2% on the 7th and was the only rising token in the past week. In the past week, the largest decline was AVAX, which fell 16.6%, followed by SOL. down 12%.
In addition, the top 40 tokens by market value in the past week are still positive: ICP (62.2%), ARB (36.4%), LDO (23.2%), FIL (16.5%), OP (2%), LEO (1.4 %), BNB (1.2%), TRX (0.3%).
Affected by the overall market downturn, the current total crypto market value has dropped to 1.7008 billion US dollars, a 24-hour drop of 7.3%; crypto user trading enthusiasm is generally in a continued greedy stage. Todays panic and greed index is 70 (last weeks average was 73), and the degree of greed has changed Smaller and overall greedy.
In terms of derivatives trading,According to CoinglassAccording to the data, the entire network liquidated USD 636 million in the past 24 hours, including USD 148 million in BTC and USD 108 million in ETH, and a total of 182,462 people became victims of liquidation.
The total BTC contract holdings on the entire network were US$18.354 billion, a decrease of 7.71% in 24 H. Among them, CME ranked first with a holding of $5.362 billion, and Binance ranked second with a holding of $3.947 billion. In addition, the ETH contract holdings on the entire network were US$7.365 billion, a 24-hour decrease of 8.43%.
Grayscale productsThe discount rate has increased compared with last week. The discount rate of GBTCs net asset value is currently -8.1%. The discount rates of other gray mainstream currency trusts are as follows: ETH (-11.76%) and ETC (-35.31%); there are 11 positive Premium products are FIL (724%), BAT (269%), LINK (322%), MANA (231%), XLM (182%), SOL (281%), BCH (106%), LTC ( 169%), LPT (94%), ZEN (98%), ZEC (12.2%).
Crypto-related listed companies have been mixed lately. Among them, the share price of Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), a US-compliant encryption platform, rose 9.8% yesterday and was provisionally reported at US$156.88; the stock price of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest Bitcoin holding listed company, rose 8.48% yesterday and was provisionally reported at US$685.15.
Markets are divided on whether Bitcoin spot ETF passes
Institutions and analysts have mixed opinions on whether a Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in January.
Matrixport: Bitcoin spot ETF won’t pass in January
At 19:00 today, Matrixport released a report that it believes that all current spot Bitcoin ETF applications fail to meet a key requirement, so it is expected that the SEC will reject all proposals in January, which may occur in the second quarter of 2024.
Additionally, the report states that at least $14 billion in additional fiat and leverage has been deployed into the cryptocurrency space since traders began betting on the ETF’s approval in September 2023. Some of these flows may be related to easing macro conditions as the Fed turns dovish. But of that $14 billion in additional long positions, $10 billion may be related to expectations of ETF approval.
Matrixport said that if the SEC refuses to approve the ETF, there will be a large-scale liquidation in the market. It is expected that most of the $5.1 billion long positions will be liquidated, and the Bitcoin price may quickly fall by 20% and fall back to $36,000/$38,000. interval. Even so, Matrix on Target still expects Bitcoin prices to be higher by the end of 2024 than the $42,000 level at the beginning of the year, even if the SEC vetoes the ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst: The probability of passing is about 90%
Earlier this morning, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that although he and ETF analyst James Seyffart still believe that there is a 90% chance that the Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved before January 10, they have not considered this possibility. Sexuality improves beyond this number.
Eric Balchunas further said that although it is unlikely, the rejection of the spot Bitcoin ETF this month is likely because the SEC wants more time rather than an outright rejection. Because the time and effort invested by the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers means that a Bitcoin ETF is unlikely to be outright rejected at the last minute. If the SEC refuses, fund issuers may follow Grayscales lead and file separate lawsuits against the regulator.
Prediction market: The probability of passing is about 89%
According to Odailys report yesterday, data from the prediction betting market Polymarket showed that the platform contract price of SEC passes Bitcoin ETF before January 15th is 0.89 cents, which means that traders believe that the probability of passing is 89%, and this number Last month it was 50%.
summary
Bitcoin rose sharply on January 1 and 2. Some market participants believed that insiders had learned in advance that the ETF would be approved. However, after todays decline, expectations that it would not be approved began to brew. Whether it will ultimately pass is still unclear, but market volatility will increase as the event approaches, and Odaily reminds investors to pay attention to leverage risks.
