Original author: Frank, Foresight News
After entering January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETF has almost become the main narrative that determines the market direction in the short term. Against this background, the data level has actually become an effective window for observing market sentiment and capital games.
This article aims to get a glimpse of the financial game signals revealed behind data such as the size of open positions, funding rates, exercise dates and exercise price distributions, and IV in the futures and options markets.
Two key time points
From a message perspective, there are two main time nodes:
On the one hand, Reuters reported last weekend citing sources that on January 3rd/4th, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve a batch of spot ETF applications in advance.
That is to sayAs soon as Tuesday/Wednesday this week, the US SEC may officially announce that some issuers applying for spot Bitcoin ETFs will be allowed to issue corresponding ETF stocks.
On the other hand, according to previous progress,By January 10 at the latest, the US SEC will need to make a decision on 21 Shares/ARK’s spot Bitcoin ETF application.Since then, from January 14th to 17th, 7 families have also received judgments.
However, if it is postponed to January 10, it is generally not ruled out that the US SEC will postpone it again to the final time window of mid-March.
Overall,January 3rd/4th and January 10th-17th are also the two main time nodes for many financial games at present.
The financial game signals behind the data
Bitcoin Open Interest: No Significant Growth
Coinglass data shows that the open positions of Bitcoin futures contracts across the entire network are 432,400 BTC (approximately US$19.688 billion).
Among them, the CME Bitcoin contract’s open position is 114,800 BTC (approximately US$5.215 billion), ranking first, and the Binance Bitcoin contract’s open position is 103,200 BTC (approximately US$4.7 billion), ranking first. Ranked second.
It is worth noting that since the annual delivery date on December 30, the open interest of Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 405,000 and 410,000 in the past week, with no obvious large-scale growth trend, indicating that Bitcoin futures The markets game for the market outlook is not intense.
Perpetual Contract Funding Rate: Remaining High
At the same time, Coinglass data shows that the perpetual contract funding rates of BTC and ETH have been above the annualized level of 30% for one week since December 25th - long positions continue to spend huge amounts of money equivalent to 30% of the annualized rate. Fees, the future prediction of market breakthrough and rise is relatively firm.
Especially starting today (00:00 on January 2), the funding rate has reached an annualized rate of more than 50%, which means that the bulls are subsidizing the shorts in large amounts every day and are constantly losing blood.
This also means that at the subsequent key nodes of January 3rd/4th and January 10th, once the news about the spot Bitcoin ETF is not as good as expected and the upward momentum cannot break through, the bulls will lose too much blood and this part will continue to spend a lot of money. With huge funding fees, firmly bullish bulls may be pressured to close their positions quickly.
This was the case on December 9th and 10th (Saturday and Sunday) - bulls suffered more than 30% of the long cost and lost blood for several days, and the price failed to break through for two days over the weekend, and finally opened in the early morning of Monday Obtained a three-thousand-dollar smash (recommended reading Contract bulls were slaughtered, where will the Christmas market go?》）。
Option exercise is concentrated at the corresponding time point
Deribit statistics show that based on exercise date,This months Bitcoin option positions are concentrated on January 5, January 12, and January 26, and call options (Call) are higher than put options (Put).
Among them, January 5th and January 12th coincide with the results rumored by Reuters on January 3rd/4th and the results of 21 Shares/ARK.
Judging from the exercise price, as long as the exercise price of open option contracts is concentrated at US$50,000, it should be possible that once the spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, it can at least rise above US$50,000.
In addition, it is worth noting thatDerbits BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) has also risen against the trend compared to previous years. In the past seven days, it has increased by 50% from around 44% to around 66%.——In previous years, DVOL has been on a steady downward trend during this period, hovering in the 40% range.
summary
Recently, the market is tracking a mysterious whale that bought nearly $1.8 billion in crypto assets in 50 days (refer to reading 50 days, 1.8 billion US dollars, the engine of this round of Mavericks market has emerged?》)——From October 20 to December 9, this address purchased a total of US$1.76 billion in crypto assets, which perfectly matched the timing of the market rise.
It is worth noting that on December 28, the mysterious address took action again after 20 days of silence, obtaining 50 million USDT from Tether and transferring it to Kraken, Bitgo, and Coinbase. No matter who is behind the mysterious address, the massive purchase of $1.81 billion itself reveals an important signal.
The time node for overlaying spot Bitcoin ETF is approaching, and the actions and games behind these chains and transaction data are undoubtedly of great significance.
