Original - Odaily
Author - Nan Zhi
At 19:03 on December 18, when the Bitcoin block height reached 821716, Nostr Assets Protocol’s first Fair Mint lottery officially began. As the first dozens of draws progressed, participating users discovered that individual draw pools with extremely high luckiness had emerged. They only needed to invest about 3,000 draw tokens (Treat and Trick, hereinafter referred to as double T) to get 2,160 jackpot of NOSTR. The current OTC price of NOSTR has reached more than 4 U/piece, which is close to a cost-free profit of US$10,000.
Odaily will review the investment status of each pool and the lottery strategy in this article as a reference for subsequent similar activities.
Fair Mint Rules in Brief
Nostr Assets Protocol’s first Fair Mint is divided into investment, lottery, and distribution links. The details of the first two links are as follows:
investment stage
Start date is December 11, 2023. There are 12 official prize pools set up, and the winning probability of the last four prize pools is double that of the first eight prize pools.
User selection1 of 12 prize pools, invests Treat and Trick assets, and getsRanking in the pool. investment stageCan continue to increase investment assets, the ranking is also real-time until the end of the stage.
Lottery stage
Each block, according to the block hash valueHexadecimal tail number, choose 1 of 12 prize pools;
The top 50 people in the prize pool will receive a reward (51-100 people will be drawn again);
A total of 300 draws, 15,000 winning addresses, 2160 NOSTRs for the first 100 times, 1080 NOSTRs for 101-200, and 540 NOSTRs for 201-300.
Theoretical Strategies and Practical Situations
According to official announcements, the current circulation of Double T is approximately87 million pieces(The total amount is 420 million coins). According to the average calculation, each address invests 5,800 coins (it is all based on luck, in fact this will not happen). according toOutput equals inputCompareCalculated, the investment ratio of the third level is 4: 2: 1, so the minimum investment amount is 87000000/15000/7* 3 = 2484 coins, and the maximum is 2484 × 4 = 9936 coins.
The final lottery result is shown in the figure below, with the following conclusions:
The average luck in the even-number pool is better than that in the odd-number pool, and the probability gradually returns to normal as the lottery progresses (but it is not completely balanced in the end);
The odd number pool and the even number pool each have an extremely lucky pool Capricorn and Taurus, namely Capricorn and Taurus, and the lottery numbers are 0 and 4, c. These two pools maintained a high level of luck throughout the process and did not approach the normal probability;
In addition, a particularly unlucky Sagittarius (Sagittarius) appeared in the single number pool. The lottery number was b, which also maintained a high level of unluckiness throughout the process.
Why is the number required to win the prize significantly lower than the theoretical value?
For example, in the Gemini pool, 766 users invested less than 400 Double T. Even in the lucky pool, it is impossible to win a prize. Accordingly, at least about 150,000 Double T were wasted. The situation of randomly selected pools is as follows:
In the double-number pool Taurus, 785 users have less than 400 coins;
In the double number pool Leo, 684 users have less than 400 coins;
In the single number pool Scorpio, 511 users have less than 400 coins;
In the single number pool Aries, 517 users have less than 400 coins;
Based on the above data, at least a million Double Ts were put into the pool with a near-zero probability of winning. Furthermore, there are about 800 users in the odd-number pool with less than 1,200 coins, and there are about 1,100 users in the even-number pool with less than 950 coins, which means that the probability of winning nearly 10 million double T coins is low, so the conclusion is as follows:
There are many investment strategies for investing a very small amount to win a small probability of luck, but investing too little will lead to an increase in the probability of normal investment;
The total investment amount is about 72 million, accounting for 82.7% of the circulation, which increases the probability;
There have been many users who invested more than 50,000 Double T coins at one time. The most people invested 250,000 coins in one account, which resulted in great waste and increased the probability of other users.
Theoretical calculation: How lucky you are is how unlucky you are
For the even-number pool, the probability of winning in a single draw should be 12.5%, the theoretical number of draws is 37.5, and Taurus won 47 times. In a standard sampling with replacement of 300 times (the probability of being selected ranges from 0 to 300 times, with different probabilities), the probability of being selected 37 times or 38 times is respectively6.96% and 6.88%, and the probability of winning 47 times is only 1.74% ,It can be saidTaurus gets a quadruple luck bonus。
For the unlucky Sagittarius, the theoretical draw was 18.75, but 13 were drawn. In the standard sampling with replacement of 300 times, the probability of winning 19 times is 9.4%, and the probability of winning 13 times is 3.9%.Sagittariuss misfortune magnified 2x。
What is the profit from the event?
Before Nostr announced the use of Double T for the lottery, the price of Double T was about 0.2 USDT or more. After the subsequent announcement, it began to soar. The main range was between 0.35 USDT~ 0.5 USDT. Before the lottery, due to the need to fill up the rankings, it once rose to 0.7 USDT.
As of the time of publication,The OTC price of NOSTR is about 4 U/coin, and the maximum profit of a single number is about 8000 USDT.。
As of the time of publication, the market price of Double T is approximately 0.39 USDT, which is similar to the average transaction price. The yield rate varies greatly according to different user costs, butMost users can achieve close to 0 cost, for airdrop users, huge profits will be made.
summary
Nostr Assets method of using hash values for lottery draws is theoretically fair, but because the number of draws is still not large enough, the results cannot comply with the law of large numbers. If Nostr Assets still uses double T for similar draws in the future,It is recommended that users with a sufficient number of tokens use average probability to avoid extreme situations.
