Original - Odaily

Author-husband how

Editor - Qin Xiaofeng

Recently, the market has risen sharply, and Bitcoin once exceeded the $35,000 mark. There is overwhelming news about Bitcoin spot ETFs. However, the sudden rise in the market also caused FOMO sentiment in the market.

On the evening of October 24, the OKX Chinese community teamed up with Odaily to co-host a Twitter Space event to communicate with a number of well-known KOLs in the industry on issues related to Bitcoin spot ETFs and future market trends. The guest lineup is as follows: OKX Ventures partner Benson, macro analysis Phyrex teacher, independent researcher Jason Chen, Trading Desk moderator Benson Sun, CoFound ofW+ anonymous doctor.

The following is a simplified AMA content. For details, pleaseListen to Space Review。

Q1

Odaily: First of all, please introduce yourself.

OKX Benson：Im Benson, an OKX veteran of almost 6 years. In fact, OKX has many connections with the Bitcoin ecosystem, including this year’s BRC 20 craze, and we are also strongly supporting its development.

We at OKX also did some work on public indexing and cross-validation for the Ordinals protocol, and then worked with some industry leaders, such as UniSat, to try to create system standards, and also included the display and issuance of BRC 20 in our Web3 wallet. and transfers and other convenient tools to avoid users having to run some nodes and other tedious tasks themselves.

In fact, the strategy of OKX, whether it is an exchange or ventures, has never changed. It is walking on two legs: CEX centralized business, we are all centered on security and user experience; for on-chain activities, we hope to be able to reduce the cost of developers or users threshold to stimulate innovation in more aspects.

Phyrex：My name is Phyrex, and I do some brick-moving work on Twitter. I mainly move some macro data. I hope that today I can also talk about ETF applications and subsequent market trends from a personal perspective.

Jason Chen:I am Jason Chen Jian, and I usually post some project analysis on Twitter.

Benson Sun：My name is Benson. I mainly share my experience in secondary market operations on Twitter. In fact, my knowledge about ETFs is also through Phyrex’s feed to help me improve my industry-related common sense, so I will focus more on secondary market operations. Looking at the upcoming adoption of ETFs from the perspective of a market trader, how can we make as much profit as possible at the trading level? This is what I mainly want to share today.

Q2

Odaily: Regarding the progress of Bitcoin spot ETFs and their impact on the market, how positive do you think these news are? How far can they support Bitcoin’s rise?

Phyrex：I would like to make it clear first that macro views and understanding of the market cannot determine price trends. Sometimes we personally believe that certain factors may be negative for the market, but market sentiment may bring another outcome.

First, we all know that there is no news of any spot ETF being approved yet.

In fact, judging from the current market rise time, BTC mainly rises during the main trading hours in Asia, that is, from 8 am to 2 pm every day. The gains were not particularly large during the main U.S. trading hours. At the same time, for American investors, buying BTC may not be something everyone is willing to do, but buying stocks may be more convenient.

From this situation,I personally think that the best way to monitor whether someone is stealing money from the market is probably by watching the changes in Coinbases stock price.Because Coinbase is basically an important monitoring indicator among all institutions applying for spot ETFs. If Coinbase only took 3.5% from each institution, assuming he was responsible for 10 institutions, he would be able to take 35% of the proceeds, which is probably higher than any individual institution. Therefore, if news comes out, Coinbase stock price is likely to have a good increase, at least not less than that of BTC. Other investment instruments such as GBTC and MSTR may also be affected.

Next, among the institutions currently applying for BTC spot ETFs, which institutions are likely to be approved faster. First, there is the situation between Grayscale and the SEC, which has been involved in a recent lawsuit with the SEC. Grayscale won the case, which generated a lot of attention in the market. The last wave of gains occurred on the back of expectations for the Grayscale ETF. Although Grayscale won the case, the appeals court did not directly approve Grayscales conversion to an ETF. At present, Grayscale has re-applied for GBTC conversion ETF.While the timing of the review is uncertain, buying GBTC now may be buying BTC at a discount.

Other institutions that have applied for ETFs include BlackRock and Mujie’s ARK. BlackRock has submitted a lot of applications recently, but that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to come through. At present, SEC Chairman Gary has not made a clear position, and we cannot be sure whether BlackRock’s application will be approved.

The SEC will make a final decision within the next three months, by January 10. Because Sister Mu’s ARK is the last time to apply for ETF. We can’t say for sure what the SEC’s decision will be, but if the SEC can’t find new reasons to reject it, they may approve the BlackRock ETF along with some other applications.

Overall, we can’t say for certain when spot ETF approvals will occur, but we can expect that the SEC will likely approve at least two applications before January 10th. This may include Sister Mu’s ARK and BlackRock. Before this time, market expectations may have an impact on the price of BTC.I personally believe that if any news comes out, Coinbases stock price may rise somewhat, and investment vehicles related to the price of BTC may also be affected.

Anonymous Doctor:Judging from my personal prediction and analysis of the market, the current trend of Bitcoin is quite strong. Traditional technical analysis cannot provide accurate predictions of its trends. Global assets including the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries and A-shares are facing correction pressure, and the market is overall bearish.

My personal preference is for the ETF to pass in January with a high probability. According to the idea of ​​​​trading, it is usually to buy rumors and sell official announcements. None of the news about the ETF is confirmed right now and there are expectations. Some institutions have discussed that Bitcoin could reach $50,000 in the short term and $100,000 to $200,000 in the long term after the adoption of the ETF. Although the exact time is uncertain, I think it is only a matter of time.

Overall, it’s a buy-the-rumor stage now, with market expectations being lifted around January that Bitcoin prices could go even higher. But I think January is the most dangerous time, and it is recommended to reduce leverage.

OKX Benson：I agree that ETF adoption wont be that quick. As an asset class, Bitcoin’s cycle theory may need to follow the cycles of monetary assets. If the ETF can be approved in January next year, and after months of preparation, it will be officially launched in April or May, this will be a reasonable path. From the perspective of an investment institution, we not only regard Bitcoin as an asset, but hope that it can become an entire ecosystem like Ethereum, with practical application value and other infrastructure.

The current Bitcoin ecosystem is relatively imperfect and still lacks in practical applications and ecological relevance. In terms of the primary market, there is also a relative lack of organizations or entrepreneurial institutions building the Bitcoin ecosystem.We hope to support the Bitcoin ecosystem with resources and value capabilities. If the ETF can pass next year, that would be a more perfect timeline. In fact, we need to give this process some time to allow the ecosystem to gradually develop.

Q3

Odaily: Regarding ETF-related developments, in the past two years, the United States and Canada have approved many futures ETFs, but spot ETFs have not yet appeared. What are the obstacles here?

Benson Sun：In addition to the United States, many countries and regions have adopted Bitcoin spot ETFs, such as Canada, the United Kingdom, and Brazil. However, these countries’ Bitcoin spot ETF holdings are relatively small. Canada’s two spot ETFs have about 20,000 Bitcoin holdings, which is far less than that of first-tier exchanges. The holdings of the British Bitcoin spot ETF are approximately US$200 million, and Bitcoin accounts for about 70% of the total holdings, which is approximately more than 100 million. Therefore, the idea that money will flood in is somewhat unrealistic.

also,As a U.S. trader, in addition to access to Bitcoin spot ETFs, you can also purchase Bitcoin-related underlyings through other channels, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), GBTC, and purchasing through Coinbase.Therefore, I personally think it is unrealistic whether the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF will trigger new demand for a large-scale influx of funds.

I think we should go back to fundamentals and focus on outside interest in Bitcoin rather than internal hype. I think from a macro perspective, the current situation is not very supportive of this hype. However, trading is very reflexive, so fundamentals may not be as important as the emotional side, and traders need topics to drive the market.

I think the trend of Bitcoin is more affected by the amount of funds than by the trend of innovation like Ethereum. If the United States, the worlds largest financial market, passes a Bitcoin spot ETF, and the spot ETF is listed, then it has gained the most liquid access to the market. So I think now is a new chapter for Bitcoin.

There is not much room for value discovery in Bitcoin anymore, so I have been telling my partners to seize the opportunity now, because in the next Bitcoin cycle, it may not be so beneficial to retail investors.

also,I noticed that the CME open interest data is very peculiar.In the past market, when Bitcoin was at a critical position, the holdings of mainstream currency exchanges often showed a similar situation, but this time it is different. The holdings of mainstream exchanges such as OKX did not drop significantly, while CME’s The open interest has been rising, even approaching 100,000 coins. This has never happened before. Although many short orders were liquidated on mainstream exchanges, CMEs open interest was not significantly affected. Therefore, I think everyone should pay special attention to CMEs open interest data.

I noticed in CME’s Commitment Trader Report (COT) that one type of trader has a very strong long-selling ability and a very high accuracy. Basically, as long as they close their positions, their transactions have been almost in the past year and a half. The markets highest point. Therefore, I personally believe that the end of this wave may be observable on the CME side. Prior to this move, CME’s open interest had continued to increase.

If a Bitcoin spot ETF does go through, then you could keep an eye on Coinbase, as Coinbase will likely benefit regardless of whether a Bitcoin spot ETF comes to market. Additionally, GBTC remains at a discount, so you can profit from rising Bitcoin prices as well as from the convergence of discounts. So I think this is a direction worth paying attention to.

Finally, what I want to emphasize is that as a participant in the secondary market, you should seize the opportunities that can be earned instead of focusing too much on the definition and prediction of the bull market. Because it is difficult to accurately define a bull market in advance, we can only watch it in the rearview mirror. We can develop trading strategies and seize opportunities that are within our reach.

Q4

Odaily: What are your expectations for the future market trend? In addition, Bitcoin will be halved next year. What impact will the halving market have on the Bitcoin market?

Benson Sun：Personally, I dont like predicting trends, because the trend can be seen while moving. But if I want to say when this market and cycle will end, I have several criteria for reference.

First, the funding rates of Bybit and BitMax have been maintained at 0.01% for a long time. Normally, once the funding rate remains at 0.01% and rebounds for a long time, it is likely to be a signal of a top.

The second criterion is to pay attention to CME’s open interest, because it is currently in an abnormal state, and its open interest is close to or even exceeds that of the largest exchange in the currency circle. Therefore, if CME’s open interest suddenly declines during high fluctuations, it may mean that the market is about to end. .

The third criterion, we can also observe from the K-line chart. If the K-line frequently goes up and down, and the main force tries to go up but is quickly knocked down, it may mean that the main force finds that the market resistance is greater after trying to rise, and may Move to distribution.

I would wait for these three conditions to appear at the same time, and then consider clearing the spot or closing the long order. However, it is difficult to say now, because the market sentiment is very confusing, and it is necessary to re-game and let retail investors re-engage, so that the main force can determine the next direction. I think this will take time to observe and confirm.

Anonymous Doctor:The current round of market conditions has indeed made many people feel short or bearish, but funds usually flow in the direction with the least combined capital in the market. I think it will continue for a few more weeks. Initially I planned to make the overall position on October 23rd, 24th and 25th. However, the markets rebound in the past few days has defied many technical expectations. Therefore, although the funds on the market and macro stablecoins have not changed much, the sentiment of the entire market has been formed.

I am personally more optimistic about November and January. There may be a wave of rise in November, and then there will be a period of shock in December, because during the Christmas period, many Wall Street institutions, hedge funds and market makers may be on holiday. There could be a test of the move higher in January, as well as a Bitcoin spot ETF in January.

Bull markets often rise amid hesitation, which is unexpected, causing those who are chasing the rise to be unable to catch up, and many people are afraid to chase the rise, causing most people to miss opportunities. I think the overall trading this year is more difficult and there is no obvious smooth trend. But recent breakouts suggest the overall bull trend is relatively smooth.

Q5

Odaily: Regarding altcoins, especially Ethereum, the current exchange rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin has fallen below 0.05 on OKX, which is also the lowest point since June 2022. So is there any new development space for Ethereum in the future? What do guests think of the future trend of Ethereum?

Benson Sun：In addition to the halving event, the market is looking forward to the Bitcoin ETF. So I think the first half of next year will revolve around these two trends. Therefore, I don’t think Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin for a long time.

In addition, clearing institutions such as FTX and 3AC hold relatively few Bitcoins, so they have a higher proportion of selling altcoins, and the liquidity of altcoins is not as good as Bitcoin. So this is a combination of three factors.

Currently, my personal position is 99% Bitcoin and 1% Ethereum. Because Ethereum is the leader of altcoins, if it does not perform well, altcoins will also perform poorly, so I have not considered the idea of ​​holding altcoins in the long term for the time being. I think it would be better to wait until the time is right to roll into altcoins and make decisions based on the drama and movement of the market.

Jason Chen:I feel the same way as Benson Sun. In the short term, the conclusion is relatively clear for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Judging from the results of milestones, Bitcoin has two relatively certain positive outcomes, including ETF and halving. But judging from the current research situation, the certainty of Ethereum is relatively low, and only Cancun upgrades. However, the Cancun upgrade has little impact on prices. It mainly reduces transaction fees, while transaction volume and application innovation are relatively weak. Therefore, the Cancun upgrade will have a limited impact on prices.

If we only look at it from a consequentialist perspective, Bitcoins rise in the short term will definitely be greater than that of Ethereum. Because the logic of Bitcoin and Ethereum is different, Ethereum will either rise after Bitcoin leads the rise, or it will truly be able to develop innovative applications on the Ethereum chain.For Ethereum, the most important thing is to see whether transactions on the chain can increase.This is my personal opinion.

Anonymous Doctor:My personal opinion is that the exchange rate of Bitcoin and Ethereum may fluctuate in a range below 0.06, and the increase next year may be similar to what several teachers have said.

The capital driving force of every bull market is Bitcoin first. When Bitcoin rises to a certain level, funds will overflow to Ethereum and then be transmitted to other altcoins and DeFi projects.

Bitcoin may be viewed as digital gold during next years bull run, while most stock investors may not know much about Ethereum. Especially after the adoption of ETF, people may be more inclined to buy higher-priced Bitcoins, because from an investment perspective, buying the expensive one is correct, because the most expensive one must be correct. According to this logic, many large funds may choose simpler and reflexive targets for investment.

Next years market may be that Bitcoin attracts various altcoins. After a month or two, the market share of altcoins and Ethereum will climb to a certain extent, so I think next years market will still be led by Bitcoin. In other words, it is dominated by Bitcoin’s ecology.

Phyrex：I personally feel that Ethereums rise is not bad, mainly because Bitcoins performance is too strong. We can see the exchange rate falling not only against Ethereum, but against every other currency as well, and this is because most of the money is currently focused on Bitcoin.

Especially now, from the perspective of the entire macro economy, funds have decreased, not only in the Bitcoin market, but the stock market is also falling. When funds are limited, they will inevitably be concentrated in a few of the strongest capital markets.

Now we can see that many people used to say they would not buy Bitcoin because its increase is relatively low and the amount of funds is too large. You may need to spend more than $3,000 to buy 0.1 Bitcoin, and the increase is also limited. But now it is clear that more retail investors are starting to buy Bitcoin, because other increases simply cannot compare with Bitcoin.

Of course, there are a few altcoins that have also experienced large increases, but relatively speaking, Bitcoin has experienced greater increases. When the Bitcoin spot ETF passes, the Ethereum spot ETF will also pass, which means that the gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum will not widen too much.

Since funds are currently smaller, more funds are focused on Bitcoin. But when the spot ETF for Ethereum passes, I believe the entire market will be more inclined to choose Ethereum because of its higher stability. Currently we can see that Bitcoin and Ethereum have the highest stability, alternating between them and rising.

So I think by the time the Bitcoin spot ETF is over and its the Ethereum spot ETFs turn, the Ethereum narrative will strengthen. At the same time, I also agree with Jason Chen Jian’s point of view. Although events such as the Cancun upgrade have brought some upgrades and benefits, they have not been of much help to the price of Ethereum. In fact, what may help us is some benefits from the traditional financial field.