Original author: huf
Original compilation: Luffy, Foresight News
After BlackRock submitted its spot Bitcoin ETF application, there are some key dates and times worth paying attention to.
Let’s first review Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC last year. Grayscale claimed that the SEC would not allow them to convert GBTC into spot ETFs.
The courts decision, expected sometime in the coming weeks or months, could pave the way for potential spot ETF success. It can be seen that it is no coincidence that BlackRock is now submitting a spot ETF application.
If you look at the schedule, you might think that we wont have useful news information before August 12, 2023.
its not true! Please note that ARK and 21 shares also applied for spot Bitcoin ETFs in April this year. You will be notified of the results on June 29th, but of course, there may be delays or rejections.
In addition, June 26 has passed, and you may learn the outcome of the courts ruling against Grayscale at any time.
If they succeed, the odds of BlackRocks application being approved go up significantly because Grayscales point is, Man, how can you only approve futures-based ETFs?
Below we look at some key dates and trading strategies.
June 26-30: The Bitcoin market has quite a lot of options OI (open interest) expiring this Friday.
Viewpoint: Binance’s overall risk is approaching.
Positions: Bitcoin quoted between $28,400 - $22,000 due to long liquidation or rejection of ARK/21 shares ETF.
July 1st - August 11th
Opinion: The SEC still has reasons to reject the ETF application, but experts believe that the probability of Grayscale winning the case is as high as 80%. In this case, the price of Bitcoin will most likely rise.
Positions: long BTC/short ETH, long BTC/short MATIC, buy $30,000 Bitcoin call options expiring on August 25, 2023 when the implied volatility is less than 50%.
August 12
Opinion: The most likely outcome is that the SEC delays a resolution, especially given that the legal case against Coinbase has yet to be decided.
Positions: Cut calls, pair trades (before August 12). Avoid leverage and be prepared to go short.
After August 13
ETF application rejections or delays at this time are short-term bearish signals, which would confirm my view that ETF news is a red herring in this long-term game plan:
Coinbase must be regulated
Tether cannot be allowed to earn $6 billion in interest from the US government
Kill Binance
USDC introduces KYC
This is one of the rare opportunities on the market that really deserves attention:
If spot ETF is approved: Bitcoin will rise above $100,000
If spot ETFs are delayed: Bitcoin price could swing wildly
If spot ETFs are rejected: Bitcoin will fall due to red herrings, regulatory formation and other factors.
