Original author: CapitalismLab
Binance LaunchPad has had a worrisome reputation recently, but the sound of "no matter how poor you can be in education" still fully reflects the warmth and beauty that LaunchPad brings to the crypto community.
We picked up the historical data of Launchpad from 2021 to the present, use the data to speak, compare the history to evaluate the current level of Launchpad’s income, explore the reasons for the “uninteresting” reputation, and calculate the return rate of long-term holding BNB based on the standard ETH pledge return , to comprehensively analyze the issue of "BNB's income".
Indicator Interpretation
First-day increase: the price increase of the first UTC+ 0:00 after listing compared to IDO
The largest increase in history: the increase in the highest price in history compared to IDO
BNB-based return rate on the first day: 1 BNB is issued, the number of BNB that can be obtained by selling tokens on the first day
BNB standard historical maximum rate of return: 1 BNB is minted, the number of BNB that can be obtained by selling at the highest price in history
benefit assessment
Taking the median of all projects, the first-day increase is 12.6 times, the largest increase in history is 25.7 times, the return rate of BNB on the first day is 0.015, and the highest return rate of BNB standard in history is 0.031.
For the three tokens launched since HOOK, all indicators are at the upper-middle level. The median increase of 24.4 times on the first day is 1.9 times of the historical median, the largest increase in history is 1.4 times of the historical median, the return rate of BNB standard on the first day is 1.5 times, and the largest return rate of BNB in history is 1.3 times. In other words, the projects in these bear markets are actually more profitable than most projects in the bull market.
The current policy is also more friendly to arbitrage users. Compared with the previous uneven returns, the BNB standard return rate of the nearly three projects is about 2%. If the terms of Launchpad remain similar to these in the future, then through For users who buy spot short contracts to make new contracts, and Venus users who borrow BNB to make new contracts, they basically have a relatively stable expectation.
Why do I feel dull
Here comes the question, why do I always feel that I am not as strong as before? The reason is mostly due to the lack of a big breakout point. In 21/22 years, there are products such as SFP/GMT with a maximum return of hundreds of times. If you get it, one is worth ten. The interval between the last round of SFP and GMT was about one year, and one year after GMT, there has been no project that has achieved the same level of growth.
It is normal for a phenomenon-level project to give people a stronger impression than three mid-level and upper-level projects. When you look at the picture below, your first reaction is probably to go to GMT. What is the concept of the so-called BNB standard historical maximum return rate of 0.46 in GMT? That is, if you use 1 BNB to make the new GMT, Vertex can sell 0.46 BNB, and SFP can even use 1 BNB to make 1.56 BNB! No wonder everyone is so impressed. In contrast, the current maximum return of 0.0X is somewhat dull.
But what is more interesting is that the first-day gains of SFP/GMT are relatively average, only 12 times, which is half of Hook/EDU. The three new projects have not been launched for a long time. Under the current bear market, ponzi and other models are difficult to achieve, so there should be no need to have too high expectations for the time being.
BNB long-term holding income
The annualized return of BNB LaunchPad can actually be compared with the return of ETH pledge. In the past 21 years, about 2 and a half years, if the tokens are sold on the first day, the total return rate of BNB standard is 36%, and the annualized rate is 14%. , which seems to be slightly higher than the earnings of ETH Staking in the same period
However, BNB still has the income of Launchpool. If we add the income from mining, withdrawing and selling of Launchpool, the total return rate of BNB standard is 52%, and the annualized rate is 21%, which is almost twice the income of ETH Staking in the same period.
The total return of the project in the past year since the bear market is about 9.5%, and the ETH Staking APR that benefits from the MEV income after Merge is about 6%. That is to say, in the bear market, the new return rate of BNB still maintains more than 50% of the return of ETH Staking.
If the bull market comes, such a tweet, ETH Staking income is expected to benefit from MEV income, while BNB Launchpad is expected to usher in a double-click in volume and growth. However, the current pledge rate of ETH is low, and there is still room for 2-3 times the rise in benchmarking against other L1, which may dilute the income due to more pledges. The new amount of Launchpad currently appears to be relatively stable at around 10 M. Coupled with the temptation of "the largest return in history", BNB is relatively more flexible.
Summarize
Summarize
Since the bear market, the comprehensive return rate of Launchpad's three projects has been in the upper middle range in history, and various indicators are about 1.3-1.9 times the historical median, and the current BNB standard first-day return rate is stable at about 2%, which is suitable for arbitrage.
There has been no SFP/GMT for a year, and it can achieve a phenomenon-level return of 1.5 BNB for 1 BNB. The negative market feedback may come from this.
Benchmarking ETH Staking, the current long-term holding of BNB will bring about 9.5% annualized income, which is 1.5 times that of ETH. In the past bull market, the income of BNB is about 2 times that of ETH, and it is expected to be higher in the future bull market. Has upward elasticity.
However, you can’t just press the calculator. In the next round of bull market, the usecase of ETH/BNB may be the key factor to determine the return. The current development of ETH L2 is good, and whether BNB Chain can continue to develop is also a point that needs special attention.
