secondary title

Original source: SevenUp DAO

Summary:

(1) Valuation: Compared with OP, using FDV relative valuation, the price of SARB should be around 2.088. Using MCap relative valuation, the price is around 1.23. The results of other valuation methods are basically in this range.

( 2) Token distribution: Nearly half of the treasury has been reserved, 1.162 billion airdrops, 1.753 billion investors/investment institutions, and a total of 143.7 million US dollars in 3 rounds of financing. The average cost of institutions is 143.7 million/1.753 billion = 0.082 knives per piece. If the price is between 1-2 knives, it has gained 12.2 x-24.39 x income.

(3) Results of coin issuance: SARB tokens will make the Arbitrum ecosystem more decentralized than other extended chains, becoming the first L2 solution with "self-executing governance", which means that governance is completely on-chain without core The team manually implements the proposal.

( 4) Strategy (NFA-DYOR): see the end of the article

1 Overview:

• #Arbitrum is the Layer 2 with the most complete ecology at present, with a market share of 55% in Layer 2 and 200+ ecological projects, showing an organic growth trend.

• The $ARB token will only be used for protocol governance and has no other use cases. Currently, ETH is still used to pay fees on Arbitrum.

• The ARB will mark the official transition of Arbitrum to a DAO, meaning that governance takes place entirely on-chain, eliminating the need for the core team to manually implement proposals.

2. Why issue coins?

zz is correct reason:

• Almost all rollups can be arbitrarily upgraded by a centralized entity, creating the possibility of being exploited.

• If it can be upgraded arbitrarily, in theory, as long as the code is designed properly, the cross-chain contract can be suddenly updated to remove all the user's assets. (even if unlikely)

• To alleviate this problem, an Arbitrum DAO composed of ARB token holders will control upgradeability

The real reason:

The ecology has shown a trend of organic growth, and the project party is about to make money. (dog head)

Official documentation:

Official documentation:

https://t.co/30 upgBWA 38 

Chinese, see the second one, by @0x KillTheWolf

4. Token Economy

• With a total amount of 10 billion and an inflation rate of 2%, the big exchange will be listed as soon as possible.

• 2023.3.23 Airdrops will be issued, and institutional investors will start unlocking them one year later

• Unlocked in half a year, investors win hemp, dddd

One year later, 4.3% of the total issued by investors (6% of the total circulation on that day), 6.7% of the total issued by project parties and consultants (10% of the total circulation on that day), will be unlocked linearly on a monthly basis for the next 3 years

This is the unlocking of the bullish after the opening selling pressure ended, and there was no natural selling pressure within a year.

The denominator of the circulation ratio here is calculated from the national treasury, and the selling pressure will not be small at that time.

5. Token Distribution / Institutional Costs

Nearly half of the state treasury has been reserved, 1.162 billion airdrops, 1.753 billion investors/investment institutions, and a total of 143.7 million US dollars in 3 rounds of financing

Average institutional cost: 143.7 million/1.753 billion = 0.082 $/piece.

• Approximate seed round: 0.005 $/piece, 3.7 M raised

• Round A round: 0.12 $/piece, 20 M raised

• About round B: 0.12 $/piece, raising 120 M

If the price is between 1-2 knives, the institution will get 12.2 x-24.39 x income on average

The distribution of the 113 million $ARB airdropped to the DAO is as follows:

• GMX can get 22% tokens, which may be distributed to GMX trading users in the future.

• Treasure_DAO can obtain 19% of the tokens, which may be distributed to various game users and core NFT holders in the future.

• SushiSwap can get 9%, which should also be given to trading users.

6. Valuation Analysis

in conclusion:

in conclusion:

After finishing it, I still feel that it is most reasonable to use the OP who is also L2 to make a relative valuation. Because MATIC is basically fully circulated, the MCap is too high; APT is obviously not suitable for comparison.

FDV/TVL and MCap/TVL are better indicators, so 1.2-2.08 are more reasonable valuations.

Considering Arbi's leading position, its valuation may be improved.

• Reasons for higher valuation: L2 leader, rare organic growth and healthy ecology, relatively high certainty

• The reason for the lower valuation: The difference between the airdrop boutique account and Lumao account is not big, and the initial circulation is relatively high, which may lead to greater initial selling pressure.

Insight by @NintendoDoomed

In fact, no one can predict the opening price, etc., as long as there is valuation as a starting point to help you make decisions

Absolute Valuation:

Here is an English streamer @0x Hamz who made an absolute valuation version, the logic can be understood, but I don’t fully understand it, for your reference

https://twitter.com/0x Hamz/status/1637463889955934209 

Someone who understands is welcome to talk to me.

7. Logical deduction

Note: The initial selling pressure is only the early circulation of airdrop users (1.162 billion) + daos ecosystem (113 million), and the total circulation in the early stage is 1.275 billion.

The team + investors will be unlocked after one year. The treasury DAO (4.278 billion) is placed in the treasury and needs to be voted by the DAO to determine the use.

Circulating Supply in my valuation is also 1.275 billion. (Numerator when calculating)

Because in fact, the people who slap and speculate are not the same group of people as a whole, so it is assumed here that most sluggers will sell directly at the opening.

Assuming the price is 1-2 knives, 75% of Lumao users sell:

The required liquidity (receiver) is:

1* 0.75* 1.275 billion = 1.02 billion

2* 0.75* 1.275 billion = 2.04 billion

This selling pressure is still not small, which is why some people will be bearish at the opening.

8. Strategy:

Disclaimer：

Please do not do anything based on any information I said, what I said is wrong, you are the only person responsible for your own actions.

I don't bring a bill

• My current thoughts: $0.5, $0.8, $1, $1.5, $2 pending orders in batches.

• The opening of the market should be the period of maximum selling pressure

• After the selling pressure is over, it may continue to rise because of the heat of Arbi.

Welcome to give your opinion

9. Miscellaneous / Reminders

time online:

BN went live at 1am on March 24, 2023 Beijing time, another sleepless night. The market maker is unknown.

Reminder / need to be careful by @AntCaveClub:

How to get ARB the fastest? :

Finally, the summary is over. I believe that after reading this tweet, you have fully grasped the information needed for the Arbi airdrop. In the process of writing, what inspired me the most was not the depth of Arbi, but the soul torture of @hebi 555:

https://twitter.com/hebi 555/status/1636540161562648576 

There are always opportunities, keep calm, keep working hard, keep information sensitive, and not be lazy is the kingly way.