author:IOBC Capital
Throughout 2022, the Crypto industry is basically in the process of squeezing the bubble. Terra collapsed, 3AC closed down, FTX thunderstorm... The chill of the bear market has hit almost the whole year. At the beginning of 2023, the IOBC team made the following 10 predictions for 2023:
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zkSync, StarkNet, and Scroll will all be launched on the mainnet in Q1 and Q2 of 2023. The main market of the Crypto secondary market this year may be Layer 2 and related infrastructure around Layer 2.
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After ETH 2.0, BeaconChain becomes the consensus layer and settlement layer of Ethereum, the original Ethereum mainnet and Rollups become the execution layer, and Blob replaces Calldata to undertake part of the data availability of Layer 2. There will be a data availability layer head focusing on the Ethereum ecology in the industry project.
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3. MEV has become an important source of profit in addition to block rewards after the conversion of Ethereum PoW to PoS
In the whole year of 2023, the value of MEV captured by obtaining order flow at the wallet and application level, conducting arbitrage and capturing will exceed 10 million US dollars. With the increase of application layer traffic and transaction volume, and the emergence of the exclusive transaction pool function of smart contract wallets, MEV searcher and some MEV projects will cooperate with C-side applications to obtain user order books, enter private transaction pools, and capture possible MEV value, and then return the MEV value part to the project party and application.
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If dYdX migrates to Cosmos and becomes Appchain more successfully, it may bring about a wave of Appchain/RollApps at the application layer.
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The ICO model in 2007, the DeFi liquidity mining model in 2020, and even the GameFi gold-making model in 2021 have all brought waves of financing. Syndicate-based Investing DAO is gaining momentum, and many project parties have begun to try to raise funds from Syndicate's Investing DAO. It is possible that a new financing model for the blockchain industry will appear in the DAO field.
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6. There will be a "wallet war"
In 2023, there will be the first smart contract wallet with more than 500,000 daily active users or more than 2 million wallet addresses; or an MPC wallet with more than 6-8 million signatures per day. At the same time, in 2023, the hacked assets of MPC and smart contract wallets will lose more than 10 million US dollars.
With the rise of many wallet projects, code security and team operation security will become major issues, and more than one new wallet project assets will be stolen.
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7. There will be the first Crypto game with more than 500,000 daily active users
In the field of combination of hardcore casual games (tower defense, card, roguelike, SLG, etc.) Coin models and game-quality single-product games appear.
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With the outbreak of xfi such as gamefi and socialfi at the application layer, the data on the chain is more abundant and vertical, and professional data analysis platforms, components or tools will appear. The industry data analysis of these application layers is more conducive to industry practitioners to portray user portraits from a more professional perspective, analyze user behavior and extend to the entire crpyto market.
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In 2022, X to earn is considered to be a new death spiral model, but through the to earn model, the habit and stickiness of users have been cultivated to a certain extent, and the transformation model of the Internet may be replicated based on user traffic. This type of model transformation is worth looking forward to in 2023, and the new models of StepN and Axie, as well as new derivative models, are worth paying attention to.
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10. The Defi derivatives track will usher in the Davis double-click moment
