Original source: @defi_mochi
Original compilation: Crush, Biteye core contributor
With the arrival of the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade and the sudden increase of tokens and LSD (Liquid stake derivatives liquid pledge derivatives), an obvious narrative in 2023 is the second layer of Ethereum.
Who will ultimately win the L2 war, and what does on-chain wallet and transaction data imply? I crunched some data with Dune to help you find out!
This topic will cover:
-L2 transaction analysis
-New Wallet Analysis
-Wallet balance analysis
- User distribution
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01. L2 transaction analysis
Both Optimism and Polygon have seen a clear uptick in transaction volume over the past six months starting in October.
The trading volume on Arbitrum peaked around the time of the FTX crash in November, when many people ran to GMX to trade decentralized perpetual contracts.
Even for ERC 20 transactions, Optimism's daily transactions have grown exponentially, from barely 400,000 in October to almost 1.5 million per day.
As a full-fledged L2, Polygon leads in day-to-day transactions, but it's clear Optimism is catching up to it.
What's particularly impressive is that Optimism, which only had a 5% market share of the L2 track in October, now controls almost 20.1%.
Unexpectedly, the market share of ERC 20 transactions on Arbitrum has fallen from a high of 25% in October to the current 15%.
While many are using Optimism more frequently in pursuit of secondary airdrops, when we look at ERC 721 transactions (NFTs), Polygon is way ahead as their partnership with Reddit accounts for over 80% of transactions.
However Arbitrum's NFT ecosystem is not very strong, as they only have 4% of transactions.
02. New wallet analysis
In terms of the number of wallet addresses, Polygon is far ahead due to its partnership with Reddit, which contributed to more than 4 million of the 14 million wallets.
To my surprise, Arbitrum and Optimism have less than even one-tenth the number of wallets as Polygon.
When Reddit NFTs peaked in October, almost 96% of newly created wallets at that time were contributed by Polygon.
Since then, though, Optimism and Arbitrum have gained more attention, with both optimistic rollups now attracting 27% of new wallets.
The number of newly created wallets on Polygon peaked in October, which coincided with peak sales of Reddit NFTs, with transactions reaching a high of 4 million.
But how many pure masturbation users are there on Polygon and Optimism? How many Reddit NFT holders are there? How many other fake addresses are there? Wallet balance analysis comes in handy here!
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03. Wallet balance analysis
First, 63% of wallet balances on Arbitrum have less than $10. Interestingly, Arbitrum has the highest percentage of wallets with balances above $100,000 among all L2s.
Total wallets with balance: $751,000 - $10,000: 4.3% $10,000 - $100,000: 1.59% Greater than $100,000: 0.5%
Even though Optimism has fewer total wallets, Optimism actually has more active wallets (non-zero balances) with a total of 789,000 wallets.
Only 45% are worth less than $10, while more than 20% have wallet balances between $100 and $1,000.
$10,000 - $100,000: 1% Above $100,000: 0.28%
Not surprisingly, since most Polygon wallets only hold NFTs, nearly 75% of them have wallet balances of less than $10. Also, out of 14 million wallets, only 5 million hold erc 20 tokens.
$1-$10,000: 3% $10,000-$100,000: 0.78% Greater than $100,000: 0.17%
04. User distribution
While Arbitrum is facing a crisis of declining transaction volume, funds in the top wallets seem to be more concentrated, Arbitrum has nearly 25% of whale wallets (valued > 100,000 U), although the number of erc 20 wallets is 4.3 million less than Polygon.
But there are 2,255 wallets on OP with a balance greater than $100,000, and 3,968 on Arbi.
Even for dolphins (with balances between $10K-$100K), Arbitrum has a respectable 20% compared to Optimism's 12%.
05. TVL distribution
Let's look at the TVL of DefiLlama again. Although the transaction volume is small, we can see that the TVL of Arbitrum has grown exponentially.
Only recently fell back from 2.7% to 2.5%, while Optimism has stalled since November.
Optimism and Arbitrum showed significant negative growth in monthly TVL change, Polygon, on the other hand, gained 7% for the month.
Furthermore, the TVL of Optimism is almost half that of Arbitrum, while the TVL of Arbitrum and Polygon is quite close.
06. Summary
The current transaction volume of Arbitrum has declined, but it seems that there is still a large amount of TVL flowing into the chain, and whale wallets are highly concentrated.
User activity is not high, but Arbitrum can also improve the current situation through airdrops and tasks like Optimism.
Optimism is very good at engaging users, especially through various tasks.
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