Today is Christmas, and 2021 is about to end amid joy and worry. The joy is that the circle is expanding, and the worry is the increasing operating threshold.
In this year, there are gains, emotions, setbacks, and gratitude.
First of all, I would like to thank many friends around me for their help and support, which enabled me to grow rapidly in this industry for more than half a year. I also need to thank every outsider I came into contact with. It is they who kept me from being trapped in the circle. I also need to thank Every fan who supports me is willing to dedicate their time to the live broadcast of my newcomer in this industry.
At the same time, I also began to gradually standardize and refine what I wanted to do, so as to make this industry more "out of the circle". Fortunately, the industry is also moving towards normalization.
It may be that the formalization of the industry is not a good thing for some "old people", because formalization means supervision and constraints, which will make them lose some opportunities and be restrained in doing things.
But this is also a phenomenon that an industry needs after more than ten years of development. Supervision means recognition of it, so that the survival of the fittest. Looking at other industries, as time goes by and the number of employees grows, it is similar to what we are experiencing now. totally agree.
The growth rate of the blockchain industry has far exceeded that of the Internet industry, but the speed of the introduction of corresponding policies has not kept up with it, which has led to the current "barbaric growth".
However, behind the rapid growth, there is a "black swan event" - the new crown epidemic.
From the public chain-ICO-exchange-DeFi-NFT-chain game-metaverse, there have been many hot spots in the past few years. We have been chasing the direction of wealth flow, but a few people have always stepped on the center of the wind. The description of this circle couldn't be more appropriate, and those who chase after the endless hot news can only be reduced to takers.
Last year, I made the top ten predictions, and this year, I will also write this part for you in the way of reviewing last year and looking forward to the next year.
First of all, let us look at the predictions made last year? Has it been fulfilled?
1. Bitcoin will reach $50,000 before December 31, 2021. √
2. 10% of digital currencies on the market will be eliminated. ×—Although many coins have been eliminated, the growth rate is far beyond imagination.
3. Half of the top 100 digital currencies controlled by centralized institutions will be eliminated. ×——The list of the top 100 by market capitalization has undergone drastic changes compared with last year, but the lawsuit between the SEC and XRP has not yet been resolved.
4. Cross-chain decentralized exchanges will usher in an explosion. √
5. The policies related to cryptocurrency in various countries are introduced. ×—Although countries have different support and restrictions on cryptocurrencies, the current regulatory objects are still exchanges and mining, and the corresponding policies for cryptocurrencies have not yet been issued.
6. The alliance chain will become the focus of development next year. ×——Ethereum is still the mainstream. Although the alliance chain continues to grow, it has not yet become the focus of development.
7. The number of applications combining on-chain applications and off-chain scenarios continues to increase. √
8. The research and development of DID will be put on the agenda. √
9. The total value of the NFT field has at least doubled. √
10. Ethereum 2.0 may be released early, but the progress will not change. ×——Although Lido and other solutions have appeared on the basis of Ethereum 2.0, they have not yet reached the early release stage. The delay of the difficulty bomb has also changed the original progress of Ethereum 2.0 to a certain extent.
Overall, the correct rate of prediction is 50%. The last thing I expected was the explosion of the Metaverse, the popularity of Axie Infinity, the listing of Roblox, the renaming of Facebook and other events made the matter of "blockchain going out of the circle" a certainty. Let us see the possibility of the compliance of national policies for this industry. The era when project parties and investors benefited secretly is gone forever. In the future, the blockchain industry will only become more professional and more professional. subdivision.
Well, today's highlight is about to be announced, and I will look forward to the forecast for next year for everyone:
1. The country will completely eliminate "mining". Whether it is this year's 5.19 or 9.24 documents, it can be seen that while the government has listed "mining" as an industry to be eliminated, it has also shown its determination to clear away Chinese miners, but it is still not detailed enough to completely eliminate it. In DCEP Before the Winter Olympics pilot, new supplementary policies may be produced to further specify the legal rules for the mining industry.
2. About 70% of the existing chain games will be eliminated. According to DappRader data, there are more than 1,200 existing chain games, not including unreleased games. However, the trend of the times is always moving forward. The upcoming illuvium and the entry of some traditional game companies will attract users through the quality of the games. Now Some games are just hype tools to a certain extent, and they are destined to be unsustainable. This trend of elimination may be the same as the elimination of web games by PC games.
3. After the upgrade of Ethereum 2.0 is completed, it will continue to expand its market share. Now is the era of multi-chain competition. Ethereum has lost users to a certain extent due to the high gas fee. Even EIP-1559 has not solved the user problem well, but after the upgrade of Ethereum 2.0 is completed, it will It will greatly reduce Gas costs and improve the performance of Ethereum. In addition, the advantages of high-quality projects such as DeFi, NFT, and DID on the Ethereum chain will further expand the market share of Ethereum.
4. The value of virtual land will usher in a bubble period. It can be seen that the virtual land led by Decentraland and The Sandbox has attracted the entry of many traditional industries, but the corresponding technical access equipment has not yet matured. For example, Quest, which can be modeled freely, is now limited to the United States and Canada. For users, when the degree of bubble superposition does not match the maturity of technology, the phenomenon of bubble evaporation may occur in the short term, and even the value may decline.
5. CBDC will be put on the agenda by most countries in the world. my country's CBDC - DCEP will be piloted in the Winter Olympics next year, and the usage scenarios are also increasing. Other countries such as the European Union, the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom are also in the designation and development of CBDC schemes, but the trend of digitalization is irreversible. CBDC It's not a high-level game for a handful of countries, there are still many non-participating countries that will join the ranks next year.
6. Policies for cryptocurrencies and NFT will be introduced first in some economically and technologically advanced countries. Before 2021, it can be said that cryptocurrencies have stepped out of an independent trend compared with other economies, but with the intervention of regulation and trends, the phenomenon of "economic decoupling" has become a thing of the past in the field of cryptocurrencies. After the promulgation of regulatory policies, the regulatory and taxation policies for cryptocurrencies will be more perfect next year. It is impossible for some leading DeFi and NFT projects to survive away from developed countries forever, and demand determines the trend.
7. More companies will make changes in the form of DAO. The concept of DAO is extremely popular in 2021. For example, companies such as Coinbase and ShapeShift have changed their internal structures in the form of DAO. There is an internal business structure, and the DAO concept is practiced to itself.
8. The two sectors of DID and privacy may become double hotspots next year. This year, the concepts of NFT and chain games exploded, bringing "dual hotspots" to the industry. Their ultimate goal is the metaverse. Under this theory, the two complementary competitions of digital identity with verifiable rights and privacy protection Dao may usher in an explosive period, and they are an indispensable part of the realization of the metaverse concept, and many related projects have won the favor of capital.
9. The connection between AR/VR devices and NFT projects may usher in explosive growth. After the metaverse concept broke out for a period of time, VR/AR equipment manufacturers who have been accumulating for a long time sensed the opportunity and began to "follow the heat". The well-known crowdfunding platform Kickstarter welcomes the release of new VR/AR equipment almost every day. , and NFT, a creative and interactive sector, has more and more access to AR/VR equipment, and the combination has become an inevitable trend. Of course, the boost of capital is also indispensable.
10. The second quarter of next year may usher in a bear market in the cryptocurrency industry. For the whole year of 2021, we will be in the bull market of the cryptocurrency industry. Under the circumstances of China’s supplementary policy, the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the regulatory policies of various countries, this bull market seems a little unreal. However, when these factors meet When the time comes, the flow of funds will speak for itself.
In general, this year the blockchain industry has given us certain answers and thoughts on the road of "out of the circle" and "empowerment". Large-scale events such as the issuance of NFT by giants are all expanding the industry to the outside world. This is fully illustrated by the 26% of the currency-holding population in the United States and the 34% of corporate access in the United Kingdom.
Looking back, the development of the blockchain industry is similar to the path taken by the Internet industry in the past, but the growth rate and form are different. The mining industry is like a factory in the early 21st century. The dividend period has passed, and the development of the industry is moving towards the next stage.
Everyone says that the blockchain is an integral part of the metaverse, and so are AR/VR devices. How will a parallel metaverse world driven by multiple technologies be integrated with the real world? Will the impact of the new crown epidemic further affect people's lifestyles? What kind of regulation will cryptocurrency and NFT usher in next year?
Let us embrace the present and feel the future together!
The only way to stay where you are is by moving forward!
