Editor's note:Editor's note:
Today, the Internet world is actively discussing Web 3.0, discussing the innovation of business models and organizational forms, discussing the paradigm shift of venture capital, and discussing the form and application of the new generation of open Internet.It's all new and not new, and history doesn't repeat itself, but it always rhymes.
We discuss Web3.0 today, just as Internet practitioners studied Web2.0 15 years ago.
In 2006, commercial Internet and service-oriented Internet were still fresh words, and that year was a year when Web2.0 was heatedly discussed in media reports. On the one hand, blogs, classified information, and vertical portals of the first generation of the Internet encountered a cold wave and capital retreat, and large-scale layoffs were made on the once-hot blog.com and Maopu.com. On the other hand, platforms such as online video, social networking, and e-commerce began to flourish. , Google and domestic giants such as Baidu and Sina are betting on 2.0. People discuss the existence of bubbles, but they also look forward to the power of innovation.
It's always interesting to look back at history, let's read the views on Web 2.0 in the technology media 15 years ago,This articleThis article
From Sina, by Yang Yungao, published in August 2006:
Blogs, podcasts... While the Web2.0 fever is still heating up, on July 4th, Sina Blog 3.0 was launched. A person in the media industry told reporters, "Web 2.0 is almost over!"
Li Xiang, Gao Ran, and Mao Kankan (Note: The three of them were once the hottest representatives of entrepreneurial idols born in the 1980s. Li Xiang founded Autohome and Ideal Auto, and led the company to go public three times. Mao Kankan started his business in 2018 Failed to commit suicide, embarrassing) I definitely don't take this seriously. These three young men born in the 1980s talked about Web 2.0 entrepreneurship and venture capital investment in the "Dialogue" column of CCTV in May this year. They absolutely cannot accept this bad-mouthing argument.
Obviously, people in different positions have different views on whether there is a bubble crisis in Web 2.0 or even the current Internet. The Web 2.0 bubble that many people are worried about has not yet blown up to burst, and Sina has launched the 3.0 concept. Did it blow a bigger bubble?
Once the "job bowl" issue is involved, even if there is a bubble in the Internet, stakeholders can only see "the emperor's new clothes". A comparative analysis of the first round of the Internet bubble in 2001, and a new round of Internet bubble—that is, the Web bubble 2.0, quietly expanded in people's expectations. Just like the tulip bubble in the 17th century, tulips are no longer just a plant in the eyes of investors, and so is the Internet in the bubble. Bubbles are a game, played by tacit participants.
secondary title
Web2.0 Fetishism
On February 23, 2006, the "China Web2.0 Status and Trend Survey Report" was officially released. The report shows that ordinary Internet users know very little about Web2.0, and 73.3% of the respondents do not know about Web2.0.
A Web2.0 concept that was still unfamiliar to most people in 2006, why did it become popular in 2004 and so hot in 2005?
The so-called Web 2.0 was originally proposed by Tim O'Reilly, president and CEO of O'Reilly Media Company. He believes that the network effect derived from user contributions is the key to dominating the market in the Web 2.0 era. Until now, there are still great differences in the understanding of Web2.0.
In the eyes of most people, Web2.0 and blog can be roughly equated. A definition that is widely used is that Web2.0 is a new generation of web based on the application of social software such as Blog (blog), SNS (social network), and RSS (aggregated content) as the core, and relies on new technologies such as xml and ajax. internet mode.
In October 2005, at the buzzing Web2.0 conference in San Francisco, Morgan Stanley's Internet investment queen Marry Meeker said in her provocative tone: "The change has just begun. We believe that everything that happened in Internet business in the first ten years , It’s just an exercise, and the opportunities and changes will be huge.” Thompson, general manager of the Royal Television Society and BBC, said in a heavy tone: “The shocking moment has arrived, and the second wave of the digital wave is far bigger than the first wave. Even more disruptive, the foundations of traditional media will be slammed, sweeping us out of broadcast."
At that time, Google released the typical search service "Co-op" and "Note Book" with Web2.0 color, News Corporation started another round of Web2.0 acquisition campaign, Blooks was extremely prosperous in the United States, The investment boom is in full swing in the US. Web2.0 has ignited the enthusiasm of more giants on the Internet. The BBC announced that it would abandon the traditional broadcasting business and decide to completely digitally rebuild it. Even Coca-Cola, Nike, and Kodak in the United States announced the construction of their own social websites to enhance customer service.
This enthusiasm for Web2.0 will continue in China half a year later. On April 8, 2006, at the China's first Web2.0 annual conference held in Beijing, all eyes were full of founders of small websites who were looking for investment. Many people joined this global movement. Ma Yun led Yahoo China to highlight Web 2.0, CCTV International Network announced the reorganization, and even the construction of a new round of social websites revolved around a core "Web 2.0".
In this kind of frenzy, there will always be some theories thrown out by the camera in order to reinforce this irrational frenzy with rationality. Morgan Stanley uses technical language to describe this reengineering as "UGC (User Generated Content)/personalization/community", and the advocates also refer to the "paradigm shift" of the philosopher Kuhn, pointing out that "Web2.0" The new economy, including finance, media, and entertainment, is also facing a "paradigm shift." They describe that from the beginning of the 20th century to the 1960s-1990s, and then since 2000, there have been three major value evolutions. The business focus has gradually evolved from "company-competition-consumer", and the business model has been based on "production". Model-market-experiential" evolution, the focus of operation is "mass-segmented groups-one-to-one model", and the role of consumers has changed from customer to participant.
It must be admitted that the Internet economy is indeed an "idea economy", "portal", "search", "bidding ranking", "e-commerce" and so on. A new concept can give birth to a brand-new business model and a number of successful companies. Flickr, Myspace, Youtobe, and Facebook in the United States, Mop, Netizens, Tudou, Douban, and blogs in China have indeed inspired more people's imagination and creativity. Many college students who have not graduated, build a small website with their ideas and technology, and then put the label of Web2.0 on it, and go to China's first Web2.0 annual conference in April this year to find money, hoping to become the next Ding Lei.
The confluence of various entrepreneurial streams collides with the Web 2.0 bubble, and then promotes the formation of the Web 2.0 bubble.
secondary title
no angels, only capital wands
Gao Ran, who founded Mysee.com, suddenly became a hot figure under the reports of the mainstream media. For his current success, he has to mention one person—Jiang Xipei, the boss of Jiangsu Far East Group.
With Jiang's tacit cooperation, Gao Ran, like Mrs. Xianglin, repeatedly told a touching entrepreneurial story. The brief introduction of the plot is as follows: Gao Ran, who was in college, showed talent in social and business activities. He once lobbied Yang Zhiyuan with a business plan to get investment from Yahoo, but failed. Later, he turned to Jiang Xipei, who had a personal relationship, but after discussion, the board of directors of Far East Company believed that there were risks in investing in high-burning projects and rejected them. Since the company did not invest, Jiang Xipei simply paid out of his own pocket to support Gao Ran with 1 million yuan to start a business.
Jiang's identity suddenly changed to an angel investment. Angel investors (ANGEL) originated in the United States and refer to individuals who provide venture capital for new startup companies. In the investment system of Silicon Valley, some institutions focus on late-stage investment, and some institutions focus on early-stage investment, but before the early stage, there is an angel investment. The later the stage, the larger the company, the more mature the team, the lower the risk, but the lower the rate of return.
What return does Jiang Xipei get after investing in Gao Fu? At least, the high-burning entrepreneurial story has made Jiang Xipei a free, high-reputation advertisement, and the value of this advertisement may have exceeded 1 million yuan. As for how Jiang and Gao will achieve a win-win business relationship in the future, that is another matter.
Jiang Xipei is a special case, he is actually not an angel investor in the strict sense. As Huicong chairman Guo Fansheng commented, Jiang's investment is not called angel investment, but charitable investment. He asked Jiang Xipei, "If you only have one million, would you give it to him?"
Obviously not. Because Jiang Xipei had more money, Mysee opened smoothly. In the same way, Mysees have sprung up because of more capital. The driving force behind the second wave of Internet boom is money.
"At least 3 billion US dollars will be invested in China in the second half of this year." Zhou Hong, the founder of 3721 and an angel investor, said, "As far as I know, there are no less than 30 funds entering China. Each fund will have 100 million to 200 million dollar share."
Pushing forward, in the fourth quarter of 2005 when Web2.0 was booming, no less than 100 million US dollars of venture capital (VC) fell into the pockets of local start-ups every month. DCM from Silicon Valley invests 20%-30% of its global investment in China. Only one VC of Softbank SAIF invested 200 million US dollars in 15 companies in 2005.
In the first quarter of 2006, more than 40 international VCs entered China, with a total investment of 2.6 billion yuan. The investment amount of 15 Internet investment cases was nearly 150 million US dollars (about 1.2 billion yuan), accounting for half of the total investment amount. These data come from a report by Zero2IPO, a third-party research organization. The report shows that in 2005, a total of 233 local companies received a total of 1.057 billion US dollars in venture capital. Venture capital institutions at home and abroad raised US$4 billion in new funds for the Chinese market this year, setting a record in the history of venture capital in China. Following the United States and Israel, China has become the third largest country for entrepreneurship and venture capital.
The Chinese story is becoming the main card of investment institutions when raising funds in the United States. Just as entrepreneurs want to convince them, they also have to repeat the Chinese concept overseas like Xianglinsao, supplemented by the role models of Shanda, Baidu, Focus, and Suntech.
After experiencing the Internet upsurge in 2000 and the subsequent bubble burst, Ctrip's successful listing in 2003 marked the recovery of the Internet industry and the venture capital industry. In 2004 and 2005, the first wave of VC investment was basically completed. 2004 was the year when VC recovered the most investment, reaching 800 million US dollars, and 2005 was the year when VC raised the most money, reaching 4 billion US dollars. The start of the second wave of VC investment.
In anticipation of RMB appreciation, a large amount of international hot money has flowed in. In addition to entering real estate and other fields, some of these hot money are also disguised as VCs and invested in Internet companies with the concept of Web2.0, communications, biochemicals, and new materials. There is a joke in the industry: in the business class of the flight from Silicon Valley to Beijing and Shanghai, all the VCs are sitting, and hundreds of millions of dollars are hovering over China, waiting for the opportunity to land. There is too much money, and there are few good investment projects, so there is a farce of VCs fighting each other for projects.
Consolidation is also accelerating within the VC industry. People from DFJ, Lenovo Capital, and Walden established Sequoia China, and a group of people from Intel Ventures established themselves. Huang Jingsheng, the former managing director of Softbank Asia, joined BainCapital, Zhou Hongyi, Shen Nanpeng, Koo Yongqiang, Lin Xinhe and other firsts Internet entrepreneurs of the first generation joined VCs one after another, and even Tian Suning, who was originally a semi-official figure, left Netcom to start his own VC.
So, are these corporate projects really of such high value?
secondary title
Foam? Foam!
Li Jianguang, Vice President of IDG Technology Venture Capital Fund, said that IDG has invested in many Web2.0 websites, such as Tudou, Zhongsou and many other companies. Whether this thing has a play or not, they themselves have no idea. "Investing in 1.0 companies is not bad because there is a successful model in the United States to learn from, but there are very few successful Web 2.0 companies in the United States."
Li Jianguang believes that Web2.0 has not seen a clear business model so far. "Web 2.0 will go through a very strict integration period in the future just like the emergence of the Internet in 1999 and 2000."
Xie Wen, former president of Hexun.com, also held this view. He believes that the maturity of a business model, the maturity of the market, including the recognition of users will take a very difficult time, and three years will not be long. It will take time for the business model of emerging Web2.0 websites to mature.
There are also some more optimistic views, that is, after the first round of the Internet bubble, the industry has enhanced its ability to discern bubbles. They believe that today's Internet companies are more mature, entrepreneurs pay more attention to business models, and senior investors also have rich industry experience. They also provided examples, from Myspace in the United States with a revenue of 120 million yuan in 2005, to the domestic online magazine Gogosun founded in 2005 with a subscription fee of about 20 million yuan in net profits, all of which show that Web2.0 emerging websites have different advantages from 1.0 new business model. They firmly believe that Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and other investment banks will not take the initiative to pay for the second "bubble".
This kind of optimism that the scars are healed and the pain is forgotten, strongly supports the emerging websites to continue to burn money and not make money. Entrepreneurs have carefully cultivated a concept seedling, from angel investors in the early stage to continuous VC participation in the follow-up, making this chain longer and longer. Thanks to sufficient funds, the Internet industry has shown a new wave of prosperity, but the fact that it does not make money in the short term makes the Internet industry look more like a flower with luxuriant vines and no roots.
Internet investors will naturally not admit bubbles, just like entrepreneurs do not admit bubbles. They stand on the same interest front as entrepreneurs, blow up the bubble, and quickly cash out before the bubble bursts.
Gao Ran said in CCTV's "Dialogue" that he first looks for money before doing things, instead of making achievements first and then attracting investment. If someone offers the right price, he will sell the site. "I'm another opportunist," he said.
The Internet has become a tool. This is mostly acceptable to entrepreneurs and VCs. Even from the perspective of the investment chain, entrepreneurs and VCs are tools for each other, and they can use each other's strength to achieve their business goals. So it's understandable why these VCs would rather keep a low profile than sing the Internet's hymns stupidly. In fact, entrepreneurs and VCs are also nervously watching and listening to all directions, especially those who talk about bubbles.
"The bubble will start to burst in the second half of next year." Wang Wei, the vice president of the financial industry and the former director of the wealth center of Sina.com, said that now there are hundreds of thousands of people who dare to set up a website to play. This is a typical bubble period. "Basically, the algorithm is calculated according to the entry and exit cycle of venture capital. Of course, some factors of the general environment are considered. At this stage, a large number of venture capital is entering, but the momentum is already very slow." He believes, "This time There is no essential difference between the bubble and the last one, the difference is that the Internet has entered a winner-take-all stage, and it is becoming more and more difficult for new companies to survive.”There are more pessimistic arguments. "At the beginning of next year, before the financial report comes out, the Internet bubble will burst." An Internet analyst said firmly, "What money does the Internet make? Advertising, games, mvas (mobile),Value-added service
right? "
He analyzed that the investment of advertisers in online advertising has not increased significantly, which is a problem ignored by Internet companies; the market growth of games has not met people's expectations; the growth of mvas is limited, and at the same time, it is weakly related to the Internet. "The patience of capital is very low. Once the market blows, no one can stop it." He said, "In fact, the market has been growing at a high speed, but people are too greedy, and greedy expectations exceed the speed of high growth."
What supports his judgment is also the data, "Basically, it depends on the growth rate, concentration and VC investment scale (of online advertising, games, e-commerce and mvas). These three indicators can explain many problems." "Concentration A market that continues to grow, even if it grows, is not good for small and medium-sized enterprises."
Referring to Web 2.0, he believes that Web 2.0 has finally become a media, and what is being robbed is the money from online advertising. "Everyone thought it was to earn users' service fees, but later found out that they still have to earn customers' advertising fees. Advertisers' advertising fees Growth is limited, so expectations are not met."
He also gave an example that IM (Instant Messaging) is as hot as Web2.0, but after ten years of IM development, it really started to make a profit in 2004, relying on mvas. "Everyone is too impetuous, it's no wonder there is no bubble."
In addition to Internet industry insiders and analysts, teacher Wang Shaolei from the School of Journalism and Communication of Nanjing Normal University also holds the "bubble theory". However, he relied on his intuition, "Simple data may not be really useful", "Internet economy has obvious concepts, such as Web2.0 and SNS, so a little bubble is beneficial."
"But I don't believe there will be a collapse like last time." Wang Shaolei said.
Netcraft released the Internet Web Server survey report in June 2006, and obtained a historical data: the number of new sites on the Internet this month reached 3.96 million, which is the largest number of new sites in a single month in history. This outbreak surpassed the 3.3 million in March 2003. This outbreak was basically driven by Blog, and the Blog service grew strongly. Google’s Blogger added 660,000 new users (domain names), and Blog was also crazy popular around the world. The two places with the fastest growth were Intergenia AG in Germany. and Excite.co.jp in Japan. Researchers warned that this has become strong evidence of a new round of Internet bubble.
secondary title
Back to the essence of the Internet
The internet has become a beer-pouring industry. "The first time you pour beer, there will be a lot of foam. When you pour it for the second time, the wine will lean against the edge of the glass and go down slowly. The foam will be less, but it will still create a lot of foam."
How to avoid bubbles? Many people believe that the Internet should be combined with traditional industries. They believe that the Internet has greatly improved the operating efficiency of the social economy, but the Internet itself is not an integral part of the economy.
The source of business power comes from enterprises, and 99% of enterprises in China are small and medium-sized enterprises.
Therefore, although there are many emerging websites clamoring for concepts, these websites may only be bubbles floating on the surface and do not constitute the mainstream of the Internet economy. Which leads to a conclusion: there is a Web bubble 2.0, but the blow after the burst may not be as big as last time.
In fact, the Internet is no longer simply a subsidiary tool of the economy. People's demand has expanded from "basic clothing, food, housing, transportation" to "basic clothing, housing, transportation and knowledge", making the Internet economy constitute an increase in the real economy, or the Internet economy is also the real economy. Not only that, from carrier to entity, from information to entertainment, from attention to experience, people's understanding of the nature and connotation of the Internet is also deepening.
As for Web2.0 or other concepts, Chen Tong, senior vice president of Sina.com, feels that the concept itself is very unimportant. "The important thing is that Internet users really have huge technological applications. What Internet manufacturers focus on is what Internet platform to use to meet the needs of Internet users."
Chen Tong also cited an eye-popping example. He said that Sina.com was originally established to provide a technical platform for the Chinese software developed by Wang Zhidong. After a few months, it was found that the topics that people were really willing to discuss were things other than technology. For example, the forum launched later had far more traffic than the product itself. , This prompted Sina.com to decide to push the content channel, because it found that the so-called interactive forum format mainly composed of netizens' original creations was not enough to best express the news.
Early Sina developed from the most typical Web2.0 website to the so-called Web1.0.
