Recently, the news that Grayscale GBTC will unlock more than 40,000 bitcoins in the middle and late July has been challenging the nerves of the market, and this week, GBTC equivalent to about 12,617 BTCs can be unlocked.

A considerable number of investors in the market regard this as a big negative. The judgment logic is simple. The BTC unlocked by Grayscale will flow directly into the market, forming a strong selling pressure on the market, which will directly affect the price of BTC. But in fact, GBTC unlocking is not simply flowing into the market.

First understand GBTC. GBTC is a fund that tracks the price index of bitcoin. Buying GBTC is equivalent to buying a share corresponding to the btc holdings held by Grayscale. The trust has a primary and secondary market, and the primary market is eligible Open to institutions or qualified investors, you can use Bitcoin or U.S. dollars to deposit funds. The minimum amount each time is 50,000 U.S. dollars. This part needs to be locked for 6 months, and can be traded in the secondary market after unlocking.

But besides buying and holding, GBTC has another way of operation, that is, arbitrage.

First borrow or buy btc, deposit it in Grayscale in exchange for GBTC shares, and at the same time allocate some short contracts for hedging to reduce the risk exposure caused by price drops. After six months, unlock to sell in the secondary market, close short positions, and earn the premium between GBTC and big pie. If you borrowed money before, you can buy BTC to repay the loan, and you can also cycle in the middle.

But this arbitrage method is that it is possible to execute the spot BTC price on the spot if it is higher than the GBTC price purchased at the beginning. If the current BTC price is lower than GBTC, will the holder choose to buy BTC to exchange for GBTC? That will only lead to more losses. Therefore, these holders are likely to continue to buy GBTC instead of BTC, and then sell GBTC to buy back BTC after the negative premium decreases. Therefore, in the short term, there may be no promotion for BTC Demand works, but further selling pressure can also be avoided.

In fact, there are two main negative impacts that GBTC unlocking may bring.

One is market sentiment. On the one hand, users who simply think that GBTC unlocking is directly flowing to the market will regard this as a serious negative signal, so their mood is relatively pessimistic. On the other hand, in the previous GBTC unlocking, BTC fell more and rose less, which will also become the basis for market reference. Therefore, to a certain extent, this kind of sentiment has the greatest bearish impact.

The second is organizational needs. This point may be mainly aimed at Grayscale itself. With the downturn in the market and the opening of BTC ETFs in other countries, either the attraction for institutions to buy BTC will become weaker, or the institutions will directly turn around to buy more convenient and cheaper ones. BTC ETF, on the contrary, makes GBTC more and more deserted. Therefore, we have occasionally seen GBTC "discounted" or actively seeking BTC ETF in the past period of time, and this may not have that great impact on the market itself.

Going back to the market, today’s market should be boring. At present, the bulls and the bears are looking at the small eyes, and no one dares to act rashly. On the other hand, the market itself has become deserted. Some time ago, the "arrogant" NFT , The sharp turn of 10-20% in the past two days has also made the friends who hurriedly chased in expressed that they can't bear it. Therefore, the current market does not mean waiting for the next heat.

In the near future, you can pay a little attention to stablecoins. Recently, some experts and scholars in the market have raised more questions about stablecoins, and the US Secretary of the Treasury will also hold a meeting on stablecoins. Specifically, it depends on the official attitude towards stablecoins.

Finally, I would like to remind you that due to the recent development of the market and domestic blockchain self-media, we may undergo a transformation, and will bring you more popular and in-depth sector projects and articles on popular events, instead of just aiming at boring articles every day. Therefore, don’t be surprised if you occasionally see that we haven’t updated for a day or two recently~~

Risk warning: Investing in digital currency is a high-risk investment behavior. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment trading advice. Investors are requested to invest rationally: investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market