This article will cover data from 10 different Bitcoin indicators, most of which have proven to be effective and have correctly predicted the peak of the last bull market.
Below we will compare past and present data to further help us analyze in depth what stage the current market is at.
Indicators include:
Google Search Index
S2F model
The Golden Ratio of 51% and 49%
Two Year MA Multiplier Indicator
Bitcoin Rainbow Ribbon
NUPL
Puell Multiple
MVRV
RHODL Ratio
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1. Google Search Index
Historically, the word “bitcoin” was searched for by internet users at ridiculously high rates during the peak of the bubble, and searches for a new bull market have grown exponentially compared to the previous one.
This cycle has yet to show signs of that, with searches for “bitcoin” not surpassing the peak of the previous bull market.
2. S2F model
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So here comes the question:
So here comes the question:
1. Can we see $64,804 as the peak of this bull market?
The answer is no, for two reasons:
First, unlike previous moves, this does not look like a bubble peak that grows steeply, but rather a relatively flat top.
Second, compared to the previous bull market, the current bull market has not deviated from the chart, which is much lower than the average S2F value of 463 days.
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2. Could this be a sub-peak?
It can be seen from the figure that the secondary peak in the 2013 wave cycle was significantly higher than the average S2F value of 463 days. However, in this round of the market, we have not seen a significant deviation from the trend.
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3. The Golden Ratio of 51% and 49%
The focus of this indicator study is the bull market cycle. This indicator shows that the previous rounds of bull markets have one thing in common: the period from the bottom to the halving stage accounts for 51% of the entire bull market cycle, while the remaining stages (from the halving to the top) account for 49%.
In 2013, after the Bitcoin halving, the currency price performed strongly. A short-term bear market ensued, followed by new highs. In 2017, during the period after the halving, the price took a parabolic shape, and after 4 or 5 price corrections in the middle, it reached a peak. These two times are very consistent with the golden ratio of 51% and 49%.
Immediately afterwards, the market entered the decline-consolidation phase. We started from the low point in 2018, passed through the 51% stage, and passed through the halving in May 2020. The chart shows that there are still a few months to go before completing the 49% stage.
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4. Two-year MA multiplier indicator
A two-year MA multiplier, designed to be used as a long-term investment tool, it shows in which periods buying and selling Bitcoin yields large returns.
This indicator is often used to identify tops and bottoms. Historically, it has accurately marked the 2013 sub-peak, the peak, and the 2018 bull market apex.
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5. Bitcoin Rainbow Ribbon
This is an interesting way of looking at long-term price movements, which ignores the "noise" of daily fluctuations. The rainbow band follows a logarithmic regression.
It had predicted that on November 22, 2017, Bitcoin would reach $10,000. It turned out to be 5 days later than expected.
Now, it predicts that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 on July 16 of this year. This has yet to be proven.
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6. NUPL indicator
NUPL refers to unrealized net profit/loss. It judges whether the funds in the current market are in a state of floating loss or floating profit according to the time of on-chain transactions, and then calculates the difference between unrealized profit and unrealized loss.
When NUPL is in the orange zone, the market is greedy, and when NUPL is in the pink overexcited zone, it shows that the market is clearly overheated. For investors, this is a period of market correction and a favorable opportunity to take profits.
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7. Puell Multiple indicator
This metric looks at the supply side of the bitcoin economy - bitcoin miners and their income.
It looks for market cycles from the perspective of mining revenue. Bitcoin miners are sometimes called "force sellers" because of the fixed costs of mining hardware they need to pay in a market with extremely volatile prices. Therefore, their income will affect the price to some extent over time.
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8. MVRV indicator
The MVRV indicator is commonly used to measure whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued.
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9. RHODL Ratio
The RHODL indicator identifies price highs in each of Bitcoin’s previous macro cycles. It accurately identifies market tops within days.
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10. Reserve risk
Reserve risk is to give entry/exit suggestions by measuring risk and return, and it can reflect the confidence of long-term holders in Bitcoin at certain moments.
epilogue
epilogue
All of the above indicators suggest that we may not have hit a true bull market peak yet. If these indicators are reliable, then the next market is the top priority.
remain optimistic.
