KALEO updated the Bitcoin halving price analysis thread on his Twitter. He believes that we are currently in the second quarter of Bitcoin reward halving, and the overall market situation at this time is in line with the forecast in February 2019.
Zoom in on details:
Q1: Positive Net Returns Lead to Deviation from Parabolic Trend
Q2: The net income is positive. Continue to diverge from the parabolic trend until a new ath peak. New bear market/massive initial sell-off begins after ath
Q3: Net return is negative. Continue bear market until BTC price returns to parabolic trend
Q4: Positive net returns following a parabolic trend
Green: first quarter rewards
Yellow: 2nd Quarter Rewards
Orange: 3rd Quarter Rewards
Red: 4th Quarter Rewards
Green line: BTC parabolic trend
Blue lines: respective horizontal resistances for each reward cycle
Above is what to expect in Q2: "Positive net gains. Continuing deviation from parabolic trend until a new ATH peak is reached. After the ATH begins a new bear market with massive initial sell-offs."
Does this mean the bear market has started, no we should see "continued divergence from parabolic trend" first
Zoom in on the graph to 2014-2021. You can see that Q1 does exactly what it says - starts at the bottom of the parabolic trend and has a large divergence from it. It then consolidates for a few months until guessing when Q2 starts, then finds an ATH and accelerates before dropping.
Let's zoom in to 2016-2018
Q1 was exactly as expected: Positive net earnings lead to deviation from parabolic trend support. What happened at the end of Q1/early Q2? Merge and the dreaded crash. What about the rest of Q2? Continuing higher and a new ATH, as expected.
So that brings us to now. Let's start by looking at the February 2019 chart to understand the context and validity of the trend and what's next. As seen, the price of Bitcoin is $3595.52. Honestly, to an outsider, the idea looks crazy.
Now let's see what happened in Q1? Positive net returns lead to deviations from parabolic trends. What happened when Q2 started? Merge and the dreaded crash. Notice a trend here?
This is the bottom. You can argue about $30k and $40k all you want, but at the end of the day it doesn't really matter to me.
As the parabolic trend continues to diverge, Bitcoin's price will well exceed $100,000, which is characteristic of the second quarter.
Over the next few months, we will see more money flowing into the crypto market than most imagine. We're going to see growth in this community unlike anything we've seen before. Every exchange will be stress tested. As we get closer to the top, some will ask for more than $1 million
So what should I do to prepare now? You can definitely trade this range (if it lasts longer) if you want. My opinion is that most of you should wait for the uptrend to resume before trying to trade. So I encourage you to prepare ahead of time, continue to be calm about any and all FUD you hear, and be patient. We will trade like kings and beat the trend again. But for now, we continue to wait.
We continue to believe in Bitcoin, believe in the trend, and prepare for upward growth that most people do not have the vision or determination to imagine right now. I've been preaching it for the past few weeks, and I'll continue to preach that there are other factors backing it up.
The tech market, which many thought had been dead for months, was hitting new all-time highs and starting a vertical rise that most people couldn't fathom in early May. Inflation is rampant and everyone is looking for a hedge.
Until that narrative changes - we're all bulls. They will come up with hundreds of ways to tell you that you are wrong. Most people have to see it to believe it. But always remember, Bitcoin is not dead.
