Historical mine disasters and policy review, analysis and response to the next trend (2) - trend and operation
After talking about the mine disaster, I can sum it up in 8 words, life is hard, and life is saved from desperation.Next, let’s talk about the coping strategies of mines and coins from a macro perspective.First, let me talk about my analysis.1. The degree of high pressure in this policy exceeds 94The level is very high this time, much higher than the previous central bank united with various ministries and commissions. The reason why there are no specific measures and linkages with specific departments is not some big V analysis, just pretending, but because it is the weekend.Moreover, based on our previous experience in dealing with P2P, we can predict that in this treatment, stability will prevail. The volume of the currency circle in the past was not so large, and it would not affect the overall situation as much as it does today. If it is okay in a bear market, in a bull market, the currency circle is really too big to attract attention.Although there are no specific measures in the press release, various measures will be completed tomorrow. Our experience is that the fewer words, the bigger the matter. It is foreseeable that the provinces and cities will enlarge the process based on the spirit of the document tomorrow.Today, Xinhuanet, which is the headline of the media directly under the Ministry of Central Committee, published an article criticizing digital currency, which seems to be of a high level.It is estimated that the next measures include not limited to shutting down a large number of contract exchanges, prohibiting OTC transactions, restricting deposits and withdrawals, strictly investigating capital exchanges with digital currencies, conducting orderly taxation, strictly inspecting electricity meters, and providing mining reports The public hotline, blocked big V articles. Maybe I won't write anything in the near future, so I will broadcast live.2. The environment of the currency circle is better than 94Although the policy has become more ruthless, the current environment is better.It should be noted that in 2017, there are no transaction data websites. After the exchange has made a one-size-fits-all exchange, many domestic currency users don’t even know the price of the currency. The currency is lying in their wallets, and they don’t know if it is still air.Those who own mainstream coins are better off, and they can also conduct C2C transactions in WeChat groups. Those who own counterfeit coins can’t find a match at all, and they are really self-defeating.But now, we have a large number of exchanges, overseas and underground, as well as more developed information channels, so it’s good for everyone to come and stop them.3. The short-term trend of the currency circle transaction is not optimisticThis time the currency circle will cut off the deposits and withdrawals of Chinese transactions, which will inevitably lead to a large-scale decline in currency prices in the short term. However, many people still think that more than 20,000 Bitcoins and more than 1,000 Ethereum are very fragrant. Overseas leeks will buy bottoms, and Chinese leeks They will try their best to get out of the wall, so overseas Chinese will be the first to grab this cake. Of course, because OTC transactions will not be placed in the country, the transaction risk is higher. So the more you care about the higher the risk, it is also quite stupid.4. The relocation of the mining circle is inevitable, and large mines, not small mines, will bear the bruntThis time, several mines have been notified of shutting down. Thermal power will be shut down first, followed by hydropower. It is by no means some analysis, referring to the crackdown on the mining industry in Inner Mongolia some time ago, only cracking down on some small mines that are not standardized and have not been formally approved.This time, it was the big mines that were the first to bear the brunt.As for medium mines, if risk prevention is done well, especially mines with direct power supply, because they are hidden in hydropower stations, it is difficult to be found out, and small miners are no problem.I violated the rules for mining, but can I still violate the rules when I buy computer equipment? TV stations and public places are not allowed to watch small movies, so can’t you learn European and American cash culture while hiding at home?It’s fine for small miners to move back home to dig. It’s just that electricity is more expensive. As long as you don’t dig in public institutions, once you are reported, it is stealing electricity.And the relocation of the large mining farm this time will definitely cause the computing power of the entire network to plummet, and those overseas miners will enjoy themselves. Every domestic suppression can bring huge overseas dividends. The last time was after 94, overseas leeks copied coins, this time it was copying computing power.5. This time the currency price will inevitably plummet in the short term. Whether it can rise in the short term depends on the fundamentals of the United StatesIn the short term, the price of the currency will inevitably plummet, after all, it is necessary to choke the fate of deposits and withdrawals.If the fundamentals of the United States remain unchanged this time, then the longest half year and the shortest two months, the crazy bull market will start in the second half.If the United States shrinks its balance sheet and raises interest rates this time, it will take a few years for Bitcoin to return to $60,000.At present, the fundamentals are fluctuating, mainly because of high inflation, but it is more likely that interest rates will not be raised within 3 months, because the United States must not only take care of the US stock market, but also take care of the recovery of the US economy. The essence is that the US economy has not fully recovered. Whether to continue to drink poison now, there is a high probability that you have to bite the bullet.One good thing is that the US SEC stated that this time, there is no reason to stop the BTC ETF. This is a major event that the currency circle has been waiting for for 10 years, and it may happen next month.Based on the above analysis, three suggestions are made:1. Withdraw funds to keep the basic needs of life. Only by living long can you live well.2. Keep U (I have already reminded you to reduce your position in the group before, you don’t have U now, I don’t know how to say it), it’s best to change it to DAI and store it in your own wallet. When Bitcoin reaches 28,000-30,000 US dollars At that time, you can increase the position by 20%, if it falls below 28,000 US dollars, place an order at 22,000 US dollars, further increase the position by 30%, and the remaining 50%, wait to see the situation reverse, break through the key pressure level, and then further increase the position, if not To make a breakthrough, prepare to wait a few years for the mainstream currency in your hand before issuing it, and for the remaining U, after the new withdrawal channel comes out in the future, find a low-risk one and use it for your life.3. Do not stop mining, if your mine still supports it. If you originally planned to invest the money in the mining machine, confirm whether your mine can support you to continue mining. If you can, place an order for half of it immediately, because you will pick up a lot of computing power thrown away by others, and use half of it for Buy the bottom and see if the price of the mining machine drops after 10 days and a half. Of course, someone will definitely sell the mining machine, and find a professional to help you identify its service life, because when people are running for their lives, there may be no bottom line, so there will be a lot of fake and defective products in the middle.Still the same sentence, pay attention to difficulties tactically, and dismantle them according to tricks. Strategically, despise difficulties. V-Keep will be with you to welcome the next bull market feast, maybe four years later, maybe only half a year.Author: V Ke Baiyuan, principal of [Blockchain Thinking]
A financial writer from nothing to real practice
