part one"Blockchain is a high-risk, risk-free industry"part one
"Blockchain is a high-risk, risk-free industry"
, We talked about the blockchain industry, mainstream mining is a high-risk and risk-free industry.
The point is that the result is risk-free, as long as you can afford it. This is a strategic defiance of difficulties. But pay attention to the difficulties tactically.
This requires us to understand more details of the truth and to extract specific laws. After the news related to digging kuang came out, there were various analyzes. Some people think that the situation is serious, and there has never been such a high-level LD to pay attention to this matter, and this time the level of attention is also very high, reaching the Financial Stability Committee, which is much stronger than the previous central mother's leadership.
Some people think that this is just a normal financial work meeting to prevent overall financial risks. When it comes to Bitcoin, it is already in the Nth paragraph. The strength of the landing, this time I said the blow, which is equivalent to not saying anything.
Some people think that specific control will not be implemented. After all, it is a waste of electricity in the southwest and northwest to not use it. It’s just that the speculation in animal coins has been out of the circle recently, and there are many people who lose money. , It can be regarded as precaution in advance, just a warning.
Some people think that this time it is really going to be serious. Many large mining farms have received shutdown notices, and OTC transactions have become more difficult. Investors have received text messages for funding screening.
Before the shoes of the policy are fully implemented, we can only make guesses based on numerous information, but we can’t just sit still, otherwise, if the policy is bad, we have to wait in line to be shot and flee for our lives; or after the policy is fully implemented, the next We have not grasped the rebound and bottom-hunting.
Looking back at history may help us sort out the status quo.
Let’s list several mining disasters in history first, and then focus on the follow-up trend and prevention strategies. The most direct manifestation of the mining disaster is the sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin. The specific reason may be that the profit bubble collapsed, the banker cut leeks or the policy was unfavorable, which interfered with the mining industry. Because of the price drop, mining kuang cannot make ends meet, so there will be mining disasters, and many mine owners choose to escape from this kuang mining industry.
First mine disaster:
The earliest Bitcoin mining disaster dates back to April 2013. At that time, in just 12 hours, Bitcoin plummeted from $233 to $67, a drop of up to 71%. What caused the plunge and the hack and the problems with Mt. Gox itself.
The second mine disaster:
After the historic mining disaster, bitcoin hovered around $120 for several months before another rally in November, surging to $1,150. However, in mid-December, due to the warning issued by my country's central bank on the risks of bitcoin trading, the second violent drop came unexpectedly. Within half a month, bitcoin directly fell in half.
The third mine disaster:
The cause of the third major mining disaster is also related to Mt.Gox. As the world's largest bitcoin trading platform that once accounted for 80% of the world's total transaction volume, Mt. Gox was in trouble in 2014, and eventually went bankrupt, causing bitcoin to further plummet from $867 to $439 in the first quarter of 2014. If it weren't for what happened in Mentougou, many people think that the bull market in 2013-14 could be more durable.
The fourth mine disaster:
The fourth large-scale plunge occurred in 2017. After four years of accumulation, Bitcoin surged above $3,000, but suffered another 36% correction in mid-July, falling to $1,869 at one point.
The fifth mine disaster:
This time the mining disaster is obviously a case of comprehensively cracking down on ICO and Bitcoin. As it approached the 5,000 mark, Bitcoin fell 37% in less than a month under the influence of China, and its market value evaporated by more than 30 billion U.S. dollars.
The sixth mine disaster:
This happened at the end of 2017, heralding the end of the bull market. After the ICO, the exchange went overseas, and BTC reached its historical peak of 20,000 US dollars in December, but soon the Chicago Exchange launched BTC futures, which punctured the bull market bubble, and the market value was almost halved in just a few days. Altcoins lost 80% of their value. At that time, P106, Nvidia’s 1060, 1070, 1080, and AMD’s 470, 480, 570, 580 were still frame-type mining machines at that time, but now they are all slag-level cards. At that time, there were more cards than high-performance chip mining machines. Tenacious vitality. It was only at that time that the miners lost half of their futures before they got their hands on them for the first time, because the price at that time fell rapidly due to market conditions. This is also the first time that the price of mining machines has plummeted due to the emergence of several domestic mining machine companies with sufficient production capacity, but the sudden lack of market demand.
The seventh mine disaster:
This time it was a fork mining disaster, which happened on November 15, 2018. Originally, since the end of the bull market in 2017, the market has been bearish for almost a year, but many people are still eager for the bull market to come back quickly. At this time, with the support of capital, Ao Bencong is preparing to fork Wu Jihan's BCH, and the time is short. It is scheduled for the early morning of November 15, 2018. Originally thought that this flow dispute would once again attract the attention of big money. Who would have thought that because Wu Jihan and Ao Bencong were both shorting each other, after the fork was successful, the price of the currency would plummet, which in turn would affect the entire market. In a week, BTC and Ao Bencong The price of ETH fell by 50% in the market, and then, a large number of miners, a mining machine that sold for 20,000 units a year ago, the second-hand transfer price was only more than 1,000 yuan, and they were even sold at the price of scrap iron.
The eighth mine disaster:
It happened at the beginning of 2020, but the impact of this mine accident is not big, because with the arrival of 312, the current round of bull market will soon start.
Summarizing the above several major mining disasters, we found the following rules:
1) Mining disasters will always come, because the skyrocketing bubble will always make the profiteers flee after they are satisfied. If there is no new funds to continue, it is only a matter of puncturing the fuse, or a certain country thinks that you are too arrogant to speculate and dig Kuang. The big tree attracts the wind, so the mining disaster will be late, but will not be absent.
2) No matter whether the fuse of the mining disaster is from the bad capital market or the policy control, it will bring about the mining disaster, but the result may be different in nature. The bad capital, that is, the exhaustion of funds for receiving orders, will cause continuous mining disasters, or even a bear market, but policy control has never resulted in continuous mining disasters. Because the former is the market behavior of the whole world, while the latter is the policy behavior of a certain region. In a market economy, the power of the market is still strong, and the policy behavior of the region at most drives away the transaction from the local area. As long as other places comply with the laws and regulations, the business will continue to do so, which is nothing more than letting people in other regions take advantage of it. It is foreseeable that if the rectification is vigorously implemented, China will lose its pricing power over the global Bitcoin after 1994, and it will also lose its monopoly over global computing power in the future.
5) In the past, mine disasters were mainly due to the sharp drop in currency prices, which resulted in insufficient electricity bills. Therefore, from the perspective of cash payment system, they lost money every day, so they simply stopped mining. And if there is a mining disaster in this round, the price of Bitcoin will fall below 7,500 US dollars, and the price of Ethereum will fall below 248 US dollars. It seems that the shutdown price will hardly happen even at the bottom of the bear market. Therefore, mining accidents will never occur in the future, or the form of mining disasters is different. In the past, it was impossible to start the machine, but now it may prevent you from mining in the country and make you lose profits, or because the price of the currency has fallen, which prolongs your return. this cycle. But if your investment cycle is 3-5 years, then there is no mining disaster. But if you are waiting for the money to return to the pot, it will have a big impact, and you have to be prepared.
Author: V Ke Baiyuan, principal of [Blockchain Thinking]
A financial writer from nothing to real practice
