Bitcoin is $200,000, Ethereum is $20,000, do you believe it will be reached in November?
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If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through 60,000 US dollars, then the bull market will be over, especially after experiencing a sharp drop last night, Musk announced that Tesla will stop paying with BTC.
1. Be bearish on the currency market
Of course, the conclusions that support the bull market coming to an end are as follows:1. The proportion of Bitcoin has reached 43%, and it has entered the juncture of the bull-bear conversion;2. The trading pair of Ethereum/Bitcoin has reached 0.08, which means that 1 Ethereum can be exchanged for 0.08 Bitcoin. In the last round of bull market, when this ratio reached 0.12, the bull market ended;3. Bitcoin always does not rise, while altcoins soar, the carnival zoo will soon become a slaughterhouse, and the end of the bull market has arrived;4. From a technical point of view, the current structure of Bitcoin is very similar to the structure of a head and shoulders top, with 64,000 as the head and 61,000 on both sides as the shoulders. This is even a mutated symmetrical head and shoulders, multiple top structure;For example, the trend of this graph:5. The risk of policy changes. Recently, China CITIC Bank has started to prohibit the purchase of BTC through bank cards. Will the other four major state-owned banks follow up and even issue a joint document? After all, in terms of short-term policy, the state does not encourage excessive private participation in cryptocurrencies such as BTC.2. Long-term indicators
So why put forward such a horrifying title? Mainly from another perspective, long-term indicators.Of course, there is also a group of analysts who believe that in the currency circle, indicator forecasts of more than 3 months are meaningless, because the currency circle is too turbulent, and the story will be interrupted by a single news.Therefore, which statement to adopt depends on which logic you believe.From a short-term perspective, short-term analysts can be more than half of the analysts with high skills, but there are very few who have an accuracy rate of more than 70%. At least V customers have not seen it now.But in the long run, long-term analysts, such as Jiang Zhuoer, may not know how to analyze at all, and he understands basic economic logic, but their accuracy rate may be as high as 100%.Let’s not talk about it, let’s just say that in the last year, when Bitcoin was 10,000, some people called you to reduce your position, saying that there will be a big correction in the short term; 20,000 is close to the historical high, and some people say sell it quickly, because it is an important pressure level; When it reached 30,000, some big Vs began to shout to reduce their positions, saying that there is no currency that has been rising and falling; Began to predict that the bull is coming to an end, especially recently, Bitcoin has been continuously below the 60MA.Let’s not mention it this time, but looking at the past few times, if you don’t listen to the blind beeps of the analysts, you will take a good bargaining chip. What is your rate of return so far? What you think is a clever speculative band, look at the technical line, listen to the analysis of big data and public opinion, in the end, you still don’t hold the spot firmly + do a low-leverage contract from less than $10,000 in Bitcoin. This strategy makes a lot of money. It might even kill you in seconds.Think back, whether every time the big V you follow made a speech without confidence during the big pullback, which scared you to reduce your position, but the result was: what? The cow is back?3. Reasons to be bullish
S2F (Stock-to-Flow,scarcity indicator)
Created by Medium user PlanB, this indicator measures the scarcity of BTC by the ratio of BTC stock to increment. For reference, the current S2F values for gold and silver are 62 and 22 respectively. In order to correct the stock value, the indicator estimates that the number of coins lost on the network is 1 million BTC, and uses S2F annual data, S2F monthly data and Bitcoin market price to regress respectively to estimate the BTC price.
This indicator can be seen that in the last round of bull market, the price of Bitcoin was halved to 640 US dollars, and it reached 19,800 US dollars a year and a half later, an increase of 30 times; the first halving before that, the price was 13 US dollars, More than a year later, it will reach the peak of the current round of bull market at 1,000 US dollars, an increase of 80 times; if this is the case, the current round of halving will occur on May 12, 2020. If it is also calculated according to one and a half years, the increase is assumed to be from the first round 80 times, 30 times in the second round, 13 times in the current round, then from last year's 9,200 US dollars, then by November 2021, the price should go to 120,000 US dollars.If you think this is not credible, for example, God V said that this is rationalized nonsense, and we will look at other indicators.2. Bitcoin/gold conversion ratioFrom ancient times to the present, it has been a turn of events for French currency to become the world's currency. The pound sang and the US dollar came on the stage.However, in the 3,000-year history of human commercial civilization, only gold has stood firm, and the value of commodities reflected in the price of gold has always been extremely stable.A wonderful phenomenon is that the amount of gold used to buy a cow 3000 years ago is the same as buying a cow today!This shows that gold is the currency that can really measure the value of commodities.So there is a saying that maybe now China is the world's largest GDP.In 2019, China's GDP, or gross domestic product, totaled 99 trillion yuan; the United States' GDP was 21.4 trillion U.S. dollars. Calculated using the traditional exchange rate method. Last year, the exchange rate was 1 US dollar to 6.9 yuan. Then, China’s GDP is about 14 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to two-thirds of the US economy.However, a calculation by the old British magazine "The Economist" made China's economic size surpass that of the United States for the first time since 1880. This is the Burger Index.Many countries in the world have McDonald's, and they all have his classic product: the Big Mac burger. Economists thought, why not take the price of a Big Mac as a benchmark and calculate how long people in various countries need to work to buy a Big Mac.Therefore, it is very unfair to denominate in US dollars. Whether it is the Big Mac index or denominated in gold, China is the number one in the world.Since gold is so stable, and it is a truly transnational unified currency, whether it is benchmarked against the US dollar or the renminbi, it is relatively stable, which shows that its general equivalent has a unique role. Is there anything that has a huge price difference from gold?Yes, the most important one is the digital gold Bitcoin.From this data, we can see that since the price of Bitcoin was born, 1 Bitcoin can buy 0.09 ounces of gold at the beginning, and at the peak of the first bull market in 2013, it can buy 0.87 ounces of gold, which has increased by 10 times. At the peak of the last round of bull market, it went to 10.7, so should this round of bull market normally increase by another 10 times?If it rises another 10 times, you can buy more than 100 ounces of gold. The current price of gold is 1,800 US dollars. If it normally rises to 2,700 US dollars by the end of the year, then the price of Bitcoin will reach 270,000 US dollars.If the above data make you feel that you are simply re-enacting history and forcibly finding patterns, then some of the patterns are decades-long patterns.3. U.S. 10-year bond rateFrom the perspective of everything is a K-line, let’s look at the 10-year bond rate in the United States from 1981 to the present. The long bull of the US stock market.From the K-line, we can see that in history, there were very few breaks on the downward track, but they broke last year. According to the general law of the K-line, there may be a second dip, a deeper drop, or a double bottom. We see that the previous dip was in 2010 after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2009, and then another bottom appeared in the following year, and then in 2013 and 2015, it bottomed out twice.Therefore, the bottoming out last year implies that the U.S. economy and the world economy are in an unprecedented crisis. Even though the governments of all countries know that they have been cutting interest rates and expanding their balance sheets, they have always wanted to resume normal production as soon as possible, control the epidemic, and end quantification as soon as possible. loose.But historical data shows that if you can fall below the lower track, it will not be so easy for you to escape the quagmire.So it is not surprising that even if there is no second dip, negative interest rates are formed, and a V-shaped reversal is indeed formed, but it will not immediately return to the rhythm of raising interest rates.With reference to the previous 3 and 5 years after the bottom in 2010, this fundamental indicates that in 3 to 5 years, there will be another interest rate cut and a digital currency bull market.4. U.S. Unemployment RateIf the above indicators are difficult for non-financial students to understand the internal logic, then there is an obvious law in the unemployment rate.The U.S. non-farm payrolls report in April was shocking. In addition to the employment participation rate slightly exceeding expectations, the number of new non-farm payrolls was far lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose instead of falling, which surprised the market.You may say that the data in April is not good, but it may improve soon in June-July. Everyone will concentrate on production, and there will be fewer people playing coins and mining.Boss, this is the social unemployment rate. It’s different from looking for a job by yourself. If you don’t find a job this month, there is a high probability that you will find it next month.But the social unemployment rate means that these jobs will disappear, because many companies have closed down, and it is not so easy to create new companies immediately to fill these jobs.So what to do if there are no jobs, only to encourage entrepreneurship and investment, so can interest rates be raised at this time?Raising interest rates means that I might as well save money and start a business.The Federal Reserve said: It will probably not consider raising interest rates before 2023, will tolerate the average inflation rate reaching or exceeding 2%, and will not consider raising interest rates until the economy has not fully recovered.The last sentence is the most critical, the economy has not fully recovered.Another potential factor is that the economy will not recover until the epidemic is over. Originally, according to the plan, the United States could complete the vaccination rate of about 65% by the end of the year and basically control the epidemic. However, the Indian variant epidemic is coming again. Although it is across the sea from the United States, India is the world office. And IT is the core industry, very dependent on the Delhi region of India, and Delhi, India is the place where the epidemic is the most violent, so it is impossible to raise interest rates in the short term.Of course, there is still a lot of evidence to prove that the fundamentals are still deteriorating. Although quantitative easing is poison, governments of various countries have no choice, especially the source of this bull market, the United States.So, are many analysts still worried that the proportion of Bitcoin has dropped significantly?Cottages are flying all over the sky.One possibility is the end of the bull market, and the other possibility is that Bitcoin will take a rest first, and let your garbage coins fly first. When I rest, your garbage coins can be put into the trash can.Why is it more likely not to reach the top of the bull market? This also explains, by the way, why there is a high probability that it is not a head and shoulders top.Because there is no top, at the end of any bull market, it is a crazy top, a crazy top, pulling 20% a day or even higher, but it has not appeared now, even around 64,000 US dollars.At the peak of the last bull market, Bitcoin accounted for 32.73%, but now it accounts for 41%, and there is still room.As for Jiang Zhuoer’s cumulative increase in 60 days, at the peak of the last round of bull market, this value reached a maximum of 140%, but now this value is only -11%, which means that not only has it not risen in the past 60 days, it has also fallen.Do you think it is possible that the bear market has come? That is the same question, where is the top of the bull market when the bear market comes?In this round of bull market, the highest increase in this data is 108%, which appeared on February 9, 2021. At that time, the price was 46,000 US dollars, which is obviously not a little bit away from the nearest 64,000 US dollars. The 140% increase in the last round was around the top of 19,800.Includes BTC-MVRV indicator. The larger this value reflects the larger the Bitcoin bubble. At the peak of the last round of bull market, this value was greater than 4, but now it is only around 2.53.So, how do you make me believe that it is not the millstone but the end of the cow recently?As mentioned earlier, Ethereum has exceeded 0.08 against Bitcoin, which is quite dangerous, so let's look at the data.The apex of the last bull market was indeed 0.12, that is, one Ethereum can buy 0.12 bitcoins, and the bull market is over. This indicator implies that if it reaches a certain ratio, there will always be a group of institutions that have a consensus that Ethereum has risen too much, Bitcoin should be smashed, and the bull market should be over.But if we look at the previous bull market, there was no Ethereum in 2013, so there is no reference.And the previous high point, that is, the ratio of Ethereum to Mavericks in 2015 was 0.03, and the ratio to 0.12 in the last round of bull market, does it mean a trend that Ethereum is becoming more and more important and valuable?So in this round, although the upgrade has not yet been achieved, Ethereum has completed expansion, and has ushered in the explosion of DEFI and NFT in Ethereum. Why can’t the exchange rate be increased a little before it ends?For example, this time, instead of increasing by 4 times (from 0.03 to 0.12), it is better to increase by 2 times, then this ratio should be 0.24. If Bitcoin is 120,000 US dollars, then Ethereum is 28,800 US dollars. 10,000 USD, then Ethereum is 64,800 USD.Of course, regarding this data, I just said it casually, and I would wake up laughing when Ethereum's turn is 10,000 US dollars.So now that the ratio is low, the greater possibility is not that it has reached the top, but that Bitcoin is grinding, and it will make up for it later, and Bitcoin will also increase. The ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin is assumed to be at 0.1, when the bull market is over, then If the end point of Bitcoin's current bull market is $200,000, Ethereum may be $20,000.Of course, I have more radical friends who firmly believe that Bitcoin will reach 280,000 U.S. dollars and Ethereum will reach 30,000 U.S. dollars.The biggest retracement of Bitcoin's fall is 80%, so they think that the bottom of Bitcoin's bear market is also at 50,000-60,000 US dollars, while the Ethereum bear market retraces 80%, and the bottom is at 6,000 US dollars.According to V-customers, on the technical line, Ethereum is a highly chip-intensive area between 1200-2000. It is very, very difficult to break below 1200 US dollars in a bear market. Even if the current round of Ethereum is only 8000 US dollars, if you want to lower You can buy Ethereum for $1,000 in your dreams.So if there are no accidents, such as V god hangs up, students, do you have other ways to get Ethereum worth less than 1,000 US dollars?
