All of us can feel that the gas fee of Ethereum has become more and more unstable recently, sometimes it is extremely high, and sometimes it is extremely low. Taking this month as an example, it is rare that when it is less than 100 Gwei, as long as it reaches dozens of Gwei, everyone instantly Trading confidence has risen sharply (although it is still very high compared to last year), and the decisive factors affecting Gas fees are still the price of ETH and the popularity of the Ethereum ecosystem.
The only way to reduce Gas fees now is to rely on Layer 2 applications and some DEX subsidies, but the amount of Gas fees consumed during the deposit and withdrawal process is still high, and it is very friendly for large investors to earn extra fees, while for retail investors Speaking of it, DEX is still unattainable.
This year is a bull market, and the price of ETH keeps rising, reaching a peak of 2042 US dollars. Although there was a big drop after the fall, it has not been able to break through the 2000 US dollars mark again.
On the other hand, BTC, which is also a giant, rebounded after the big drop broke through 60,000 US dollars and hit a new high. Although it is a big drop now, we still have to look at the essence through the phenomenon. What is the reason for this situation? ?
I think it boils down to the following:
1. Retail investors don’t want the price of Ethereum to be too high, because the price of ETH affects the amount of Gas fees spent. After breaking through $2,000 for the first time, the peak of Gas fees reached an unprecedented height. The difficulty of 1,000 Gwei also made many people retreat , So retail investors began to gather strength (similar to the GME event), causing the price of ETH to stagnate. You can refer to the recent market reasons, all of which are related to the speeches and policies of the Federal Reserve.
2. Miners are used to earning high absenteeism fees. The soaring gas fees caused by DeFi in September last year led many people to enter the cryptocurrency market, even buy mining machines and become miners, and when they were quiet from October to November, they also found that the transaction volume was low when the gas fees were reduced. I am worried that such a situation will affect my normal income again, so the mining pool has come forward to oppose EIP-1559.
3. Bitcoin is more like gold, and Ethereum is more like banknotes. Many people buy bitcoins and store them there, just like storing gold; and Ethereum is still a tool for transfers even under the high gas fee, just like we stay in hotels on holidays, when we go out I know that the price will increase during this period, but can this be reduced? Of course not, but we can choose a cheaper hotel, and when the high-priced hotel is vacant, it will be rented out at a low price. This problem is also the same when it comes to the price of Ethereum.
Although we have seen many large institutions buying Bitcoin and Ethereum, people only think that this is a game for big players, and the gas fee prevents many people from entering.
However, the core of this war lies in V God and the team behind him. It can be seen from last year that various DeFi began to appear in September, and retail investors were in high spirits, but that was just an illusion that many people entered the market Forget it, the amount of funds has not increased much. The real surge in the number of users is from the National Day to the U.S. election. Everyone started to buy Ethereum, which gradually increased its price. But at the end of the GR8 donation event, the gas fee began to skyrocket. , There began to be conflicts between retail investors and miners, and Ethereum 2.0 was officially launched during this period.
This is also the case this year. EIP-1559 has become the short-term solution, but the effect will not be seen until July at the earliest. Assuming its effect meets public expectations, the price of Ethereum will continue to soar, because There is no need to worry about the high gas fee anymore, but if it is not reached, the panic of users will start to erupt, and they can only wait for the advent of Ethereum 2.0.
Regarding the fork, I personally don’t think it makes much sense. It’s not that after the fork, Ethereum will not be used as a gas fee. It’s just some miners’ competition for interests.
