Recently, a big sister wanted to buy 20 mining machines.
But after coming to my office, the budget was reduced to 10 units.
The reason is that compared with other mining machine sales companies, there is no atmosphere.
Why is there no atmosphere? The main thing is that there are not many negotiation rooms eager to open business, not many investors are crowded, no place to drink tea, no one to brag, and talk about the price of the currency that is so happy that the nose bubbles out in the future.
Inversely, when she makes a decision, 80% is based on feeling and 20% is rational. Although she thinks that she is equally rational and emotional.
So how does she feel, the basic feeling: greed and fear.
What is greedy is to see that if everything goes well for investing in ETH, you can pay back the capital in 5 months, and there will be 20 times the income in the future.
The fear is that I have never dug and lack a sense of security.
The eldest sister doesn’t know us, doesn’t know whether we are reliable, doesn’t know whether the bull market will end soon, and doesn’t know whether we can give her an objective amount of currency production as scheduled.
Because of greed, I am half stud, and because of fear, I temporarily withdrew my hands.
Shrinking hands is what we often say, because of ignorance, sailing carefully for thousands of years, the wind and waves in the distance are too strong, and the night is full of potholes.
1. Make investment decisions based on feeling, basically die without burial
I said a long time ago that girls rely on their feelings to find a partner, and they deserve to meet scumbags, while older sisters rely on their feelings to invest, and they rely on their strength to meet fools.
It has been said recently that scumbags are good at everything except being a bad person, and they are good at making you feel. In fact, the same is true for big fools, except that they can't make you money, they are good at everything, they just control your feelings to death.
It's the same for fools, isn't it the same for dealers?
If people rely on their feelings to speculate in coins, what is their initial feeling, fear, caution, because they feel that the ups and downs are too scary, so what are you chasing after so many ups and downs? Double it again, why not follow up.
There is nothing wrong with chasing ups and downs, but it is definitely wrong to make decisions based on feelings.
Why? Bankers, scumbags, and liars all have a common trait, which is to study human nature. As long as human nature is like this, then the banker must operate in reverse.
What's more, the dealer can also see your human nature through the data, such as looking at the background long-short comparison.
Therefore, neither prudence nor greed is wrong, but prudence and greed based on intuition and feeling are both wrong. Because it is a mistake and a weakness of human nature, liars will definitely take advantage of it.
2. Powell said that not making a decision is more costly than making a wrong decision.
Everything has a worst case scenario, and everything has a black swan.
Someone once had to discuss four levels of risk with me before a certain mining went online, namely: risks that are known but can be controlled, risks that are known but cannot be controlled, and I don’t know if I know it, and I don’t know if it can be controlled risks and unknown risks.
The other party asked me to analyze the risks of the four levels. After I tried my best to analyze, I could only do the first three stages, but the other party must let me analyze the risks of the fourth level, which is a bit contradictory. If I don't know the risk, I don't know what it is.
The other party came to a conclusion because of this, so, there is still a risk, you have no way of knowing, so you should be cautious about this matter.
Personally, I think this kind of thinking is not only irrational, but stupid.
According to this inference, because human beings don’t know when they will be attacked by meteorites, or their wisdom will be withdrawn by the higher-dimensional divine civilization, or it is simply a dream of another dimension, so we don’t need to eat, sleep and work today, and we don’t need to build four With modernization, childbirth will disappear, so just abort?
Since you don't know, make full predictions based on what you know and make decisions.
The world of human cognition is like a dark expanse and a little bit of faint light.
In our exploration, we will never break into the darkness wantonly because there is light in the faint light, which is aggressive, and we will not simply stay where we are because the faint light is too weak.
Isn't the best way to walk according to the known light, and expand the boundary of light while walking, so that the darkness is gradually swallowed by the light?
This scene is really like the opening scene of "Red Alert".
The same is true for business. We cannot stop walking just because there may be darkness outside. What we have to do is to first judge whether there is light outside. , and then walk in the direction with a greater probability, and then walk one step at a time.
The wrong approach is to rely on feeling instead of cognition.
As long as I am happy, no matter whether there is light or not, I will directly break into the darkness. If I am afraid, no matter what the light is, I will not expand my cognition at all. I will just shrink back and imagine that the whole world is dark. Liars, all business opportunities are traps.
3. Our next investment decision is based on the fact that there must be a bull market in the first half of the year, but we don’t know about it in the second half of the year.
Why?
Why?
The bull market is not yet crazy, many leeks have not yet come in, the 60-day moving average is still not turned around, companies such as Meitu still have the need to hold currency against risks, and the global epidemic is still not over in the short term, so the global central bank's currency release continues, and the black swan The incident, the attack from the central government, has been unable to eliminate the decentralized global consensus of BTC and ETH.
Based on this twilight, we judge that the bull market is at least 4 months away. During these 4 months, our funds should not be withdrawn, and our investment can be properly added. If there is a good investment track, you If you dare to take the risk of getting stuck, you might as well take a heavy position.
Please note that this is based on a known high probability. Is there any risk? must exist.
But we have to estimate the worst result, whether it is acceptable to be locked up for 2 or 3 years, the worst case is not losing money for 3 years, and losing 40% in half a year, this probability may be 30%; The probability of 10 times the income in the future is 70%. In this case, according to the Kelly formula, what should you do?
The Kelly formula tells us that we need to take heavy positions and add a certain amount of leverage.
People with a strong heart can do this, people with insufficient psychological quality and insufficient money should not do this, lest it is because your internal strength is not good, you did not slay the dragon with the dragon sword, but hurt yourself, come back and blame me for you My knife doesn't work well.
What about the second half of the year? At present, it is dark for V guest, or it is mostly dark. Then V guest will expand his cognition on the one hand, and on the other hand, he is also in the process of gradually moving forward, approaching the darkness, and entering the truth of the future.
As the saying goes, if you can't see clearly, step on the watermelon rind and slide to where you are.
Next, based on the prediction that the bull market is at least 4 months away and the bear market is about to come in 6 months to 1 year, I will use this as a premise to give you four profitable tracks in the late stage of the bull market. , which are:
1. Owning a mine is the cornerstone of the last wave of stable 10 times income;
2. The operation method of stably holding currency and earning 50% of the profit at the highest point;
3. Follow the hot spots, smash and grab the altcoins that make money and run away;
4. Entering the casino, when others are crying, we take advantage of the trend to short.
Next, I will gradually expand, so stay tuned.
A practical financial writer who went from nothing to a real "get"
A practical financial writer who went from nothing to a real "get"
