Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlockVC（ID：blockvcfund）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

U.S. bond interest rates soared more than expected, triggering a huge cross-asset shock in the global financial market.

In the past half a month, the sharp rise in interest rates on US treasury bonds has triggered panic among investors in various markets around the world. Interest rates are the anchor for the pricing of large categories of assets. The increase in real interest rates has led to heavy losses in risky assets. Bitcoin, US stocks, A shares and other stock markets have undergone drastic adjustments in a short period of time. Highly valued interest rate-sensitive assets have suffered particularly severe declines.From a short-term perspective, the sharp drop in the market is a major cleansing of overcrowded trading positions and persistently high leverage levels due to unexpected interest rate changes, and it is also a release of panic. But from the perspective of long-term logic, the market is reaching and trading a new consensus-the epidemic is over.We will publish a weekly strategy report on March 6, 2020

"Halving, Water Release, and Bitcoin Bulls"

, for the first time it was proposed that the global central bank QE wave is the starting point of a new round of wealth transfer and redistribution, and the logic of Bitcoin's New Year's market deduction has changed from "halving the expected bull" to "releasing buffalo". In just one week, we witnessed that after the 3.12 major cleansing, Bitcoin has gone out of a year-long bull market, which basically verified the prediction of a long bull in the new year.

For this relatively sharp adjustment at the end of February 2021, even without the impact of interest rate disturbances, the Bitcoin and digital currency markets themselves are brewing a need for a deep adjustment.

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Data source: Glassnode

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The disturbance of U.S. bond interest rates has triggered shocks in the global capital market and caused widespread panic among investors. We firmly believe that short-term disturbances will not have a fundamental impact on Bitcoin’s New Year’s bull market.

As the circulating market value of Bitcoin crosses the threshold of one trillion US dollars, the attributes of Bitcoin as a new asset category will be more recognized by mainstream institutions. We can see that recently Tesla announced that Bitcoin has entered its balance sheet and a series of US listed companies continue to buy Bitcoin. As shown), Bitcoin’s becoming an asset category with a market capitalization of trillions of dollars will attract more giant whale players and institutional funds to start incorporating Bitcoin into their asset portfolios. The listing of Coinbase will stimulate more traditional financial investors to pay attention to the digital currency market. Demand is still the continuous driving force for the healthy development of the market.

Data source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, we have observed that the main line of the Bitcoin market is returning from the core logic of "epidemic bull" to "halving bull". Compared with the optimistic demand expansion, we have observed a relatively tighter supply shortage. The transactions and sentiments of short-term currency holders have affected the 30% level of adjustment during the bull market, but the long-term trend (HODL WAVE) shows that the proportion of currency holders in 1-2 years is still increasing, and compared with the peaks of previous bull markets, it is still There is room for a 5% decline. At the same time, Grayscale also released data showing that the inflow of bitcoins in the Asia-Pacific region is accelerating to North America. This continuous supply shortage is the core driving force for the "halving bull". Therefore, we judge that the New Year's Eve Long cattle are still in very healthy progress. After nearly a week of shocks and washing, Bitcoin will soon resume its upward trend and continue to attack the line of $70,000.

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Data source: Glassnode