Recently, the market has begun to pay attention to Grayscale's data again. The main reason is that Grayscale's recent data has undergone huge changes.
First of all, look at the recent increase in Grayscale’s holdings. It can be seen that there was no increase in BTC last night. Accumulated more than 7,000 bitcoins, which may seem okay, but compared with the past, it is a bit shabby. Usually, in the peak period of grayscale accumulation, grayscale can accumulate more than 7,000 bitcoins in just one day currency.
Including the increase in holdings on ETH and BCH is actually relatively average, only LTC is still Grayscale’s favorite, and the current scale of $31.6 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) plummeted 21% this week, exceeding the 18% decline of Bitcoin , it all has to do with the premium rate in the middle row, which is the first time since 2015 that a negative premium (lower than the actual bitcoin trading price) has appeared.
Many people regard this data as the doomsday, and think that if the premium is negative, the game should be over. If this trend continues, Grayscale may stop buying Bitcoin. As one of the largest buyers of Bitcoin, Grayscale's drop in demand could lead to a drop in the price of Bitcoin.
But in fact, the situation is not as serious as everyone imagined. The significance of the premium is to allow everyone to arbitrage, and the current negative premium is nothing more than no arbitrage. In fact, the trading price of most ETFs is lower than their net asset value. What a big deal, when the premium falls, it's just the trading houses cashing in on the premium. Therefore, a negative premium on GBTC does not necessarily mean bearishness or outflows.
Also, regarding the demand for Bitcoin, if Grayscale no longer increases its holdings of BTC, it will indeed have an impact on the market, but the impact is not as great as it was some time ago. Recently, different companies have been buying BTC, including the recent period The new Canadian BTC ETF is digesting the risk of grayscale dominance.
Is anyone still staring at Grayscale's daily accumulation in recent times? Very little.
In addition, an important factor that cannot be ignored in the market is Coinbase. Recently, Coinbase’s listing application has been successfully passed. According to the information released by it, the company’s standing currency assets have reached 90 billion US dollars. This is a very exaggerated figure, almost Grayscale is several times higher, and according to normal transaction records, many institutions conduct transactions through Coinbase. The role of benchmarking, Coinbase may be more important than Grayscale.
Coinbase will not know how high the relationship between the company's stock price and Bitcoin price will be, and will not know how much impact BTC will have on the company's stock price once it enters a bull market, but Coinbase still chose this time to go public, and, At present, it still has a very high valuation, which shows that both Coinbase and traditional financial institutions have considerable confidence in Bitcoin.
It’s also worth noting that on page 68 of Coinbase’s Form S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Coinbase said it may raise additional capital to “support business growth.” To this end, the company may issue new shares or shares in the form of blockchain tokens linked to “customer rewards or loyalty programs.” Of course, the mention of blockchain tokens in the risk disclosure section does not mean that Coinbase has specific plans for this. Nonetheless, the document indicated that some consideration had been taken.
What price do you think it will reach if Coinbase releases coins?
Back to the market, today's market rhythm is rising in the morning and pulling back in the afternoon, and the overall shock pattern. During the period, the market once rebounded above $48,000, and now it is back around $46,000 again.
Tomorrow, the monthly line of this month will officially close. If there is no accident, the monthly line has five consecutive positives. The opening price of this month is around 33,000 US dollars, and the highest rise is around 58,300 US dollars. The highest increase is 76.7%. The current position around $46,700 also has a 41% increase, and the situation is not as bad as everyone imagined.
If you look at the weekly line, the market has officially started to fall this week, and it has fallen by 18% so far. It seems too arbitrary to judge the overall trend reversal in a week, and it depends on the specifics. Watch next week to see what happens with another dip.
From the current point of view, the market on the weekend still has the intention of repairing, especially after the market opened today, it went straight up. It can be seen that the market last night was still greatly affected by the US stock market. After breaking away from the influence of the US stock market, the market did not say it rose , at least the desire to go further down is not too strong. Of course, during this period, we should also pay attention to the dishwashing behavior of the dealer.
At present, it seems that the market is still in the correction stage. First, pay attention to the support of 45,000 US dollars. If it can be supported, there may be a wide-range upward trend on the weekend.
The performance of other mainstream currencies is similar. It is worth paying attention to LTC. Although the price of the currency has not risen after Grayscale increased its holdings so much last night, the current environment is still relatively suppressed by factors. This benefit is still accumulating. It will be especially obvious when it rebounds.
Another thing worth paying attention to is the platform currency. Today OKT took the lead in rebounding, and the current increase is more than 30%. We also emphasized this currency when it was falling in the early stage. According to the positioning of OKEX, there is a high probability that there will be a chance of explosion in the future, and Today's highest increase was once close to 50%, and recently it can be regarded as elated. Affected by this, OKB also ushered in a 15% increase, and HT also experienced a 10% increase driven by the rise of OKB. This is why we want everyone to pay attention to the platform currency. Whether the next one will be DeFi, you can wait and see, especially when the market stops falling or even rebounds.
