Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlockVC（ID：blockvcfund）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
In the past month, there have been a lot of discussions about Bitcoin in the traditional financial market. Following the voices of many international first-line investment institutions, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, also expressed his views on Bitcoin. In the article, Ray Dalio expressed his personal exploratory thoughts on cryptocurrencies. He believes that Bitcoin still has great uncertainty, and the composition of asset portfolios continues to face huge challenges. At the same time, he also believes that Bitcoin The main reason why currency as an asset has attracted the attention of many investors comes from the concept of "digital gold". Bitcoin can be understood as a long-term option that investors use to hedge against great uncertainty.
In the current market, discussions and opinions in this context are not new, but the frenzy of the market in early January can be seen. As can be seen from the figure below, the funding and premium rate of the BitMEX contract were at the extreme value in the past two consecutive weeks in early January. During the same period, the Coinbase premium rate and on-site trading volume also hit new highs in a row. The rising slope after the previous high has approached the rhythm of the peak of the bull market in 2017, and the greed of the market has reached the boiling point.
image description
From the on-chain data of CryptoQuant, we can see that the adjustment of the market this time is still due to the accumulation of vulnerability due to the excessively high leverage ratio in the short-term market; secondly, we observe from the data on the GlassNode chain that the profit ratio of Bitcoin on the chain is close to the previous At the peak of the bull market adjustment, the sentiment was overheated, and the profit margin was too generous, so there was a stampede and throw out of vulnerability in the process of unloading leverage; finally, after the market showed a certain degree of commitment, it encountered a large number of concentrated miners Selling has made the recent bitcoin trend look extremely heavy and weak.
Data source: CryptoQuant
image description
We firmly believe that the current market is still in the upward trend of the New Year’s long-term bull market. Although this adjustment is aggressive, the adjustment itself is within expectations, and the adjustment rate is not surprising. It is also a decline in long-term volatility. A healthy change of chips between the release and profit-making is a benign adjustment that lays the foundation for a long-term continuous rise.
At the same time, judging from the exchange bitcoin wallet monitoring, during the adjustment process of bitcoin, although the trend of bitcoin outflow from the exchange wallet has slowed down severely, there is no sign of a large inflow of bitcoin on the chain to the exchange. From Liquidity According to the indicators of Supply Change, Bitcoin is still in the healthy process of giant alligators firmly attracting funds, and the holding chips tend to be concentrated. It is still very far away from the signs of a large number of Bitcoin holdings changing hands at the peak of previous bull markets. We believe that the current bull market The foreplay has been well prepared, the short-term bottom of the $28,000 line has been proven, and the most impressive uptrend is coming. The market outlook in the next few months is very worth looking forward to. Bitcoin is expected to start an upward attack on the $55,000 line after the Spring Festival new offensive.
image description
Data source: Glassnode, CryptoQuant
At the same time, we have seen major changes in the top 20 by market capitalization. The traditional mainstream currencies such as EOS and BSV quickly fell behind. The historical high challenged, Polkadot DOT and DeFi leading currencies such as Uni, Aave and SNX have entered the top 20 lineup, including Compound, Sushi and other DeFi currencies have all hit record highs, and the endogenous power of the market is still very strong Strong, we are still firmly optimistic about the future ETH-BTC exchange rate trading and the long-term investment value of the DeFi track.
Especially the recent WallStreetBets event in the US stock market has confirmed our judgment.
Taking Gamestop as the battlefield, with fierce options trading, US stock retail investors and celebrity hedge funds have attracted the attention of the world, and have stirred up a large number of US stocks such as AMC, and even silver, Bitcoin, and Doge coins. The upsurge of the short squeeze swept the global capital market. More importantly, Wall Street institutions joined forces to save themselves and trading platforms such as Robinhood restricted stock opening and trading, and forum platforms closed special areas, etc., which caused a lot of criticism.
