Editor's Note: This article comes fromCybtc Blockchain (ID: cybtc_com), reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Cybtc Blockchain (ID: cybtc_com)
Cybtc Blockchain (ID: cybtc_com)
, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Yesterday the author’s friend said that he had already withdrawn money, but the result was a sharp drop today. Many people don’t know the reason for the sharp drop, and most of the analysts just guessed the reason after it happened. The purpose is to constantly correct and explain their own. Model, in order to better predict the market in the future, so according to this idea, let us talk about the factors of this sharp drop today and analyze it.
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1. The dust of the US general election has settled
The author believes that it is mainly related to the nature of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a diversified super-sovereign asset with both investment attributes and speculative attributes, as well as risk-avoiding attributes. The value storage and hedging attributes are mainly due to the constant total amount and the holder's high autonomy, and these attributes have different functions in different periods.
During the U.S. election, the price of Bitcoin rose, in fact, its main function was to avoid risks, because the U.S. election brought strong uncertainty, which made many people choose a part of their asset allocation in order to prevent risks from happening. Bitcoin ushered in a slow rise.
Afterwards, the results of the U.S. general election were announced, and Biden took the lead. At this time, Trump challenged the results of the general election, believing that there was fraud in the election, which created uncertain factors again, followed by various lawsuits and more news. These uncertain factors actually This makes Bitcoin possible to become a risk-resistant asset. In the end, when the Congressional shock event occurred and Trump’s Twitter account was banned, the social risk was pushed to the highest peak, because people can only rely on Bitcoin, a super-sovereign asset, ensures its future wealth, so Bitcoin continues to rise.
And when Trump also realized that the result was difficult to overthrow, the currency price had already gradually fallen until Biden entered the White House. In fact, Biden’s entry into the White House also announced that the instability of American society has gradually disappeared. The swords on the heads of investment managers have also been taken down. At this time, the whole society gradually starts to function as before, and naturally there is no need for so many anti-risk assets. At this time, the price of Bitcoin will naturally fall.
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The spring disaster market is generally concentrated in the four years of the bear market, such as 2018, 19, and the beginning of 2020, that is, the end of the lunar year. From the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, it is a period of time that we have attracted much attention. , There was also a relatively large correction, and it did not cause a spring disaster at the beginning of 2017.
The main reason for the spring disaster is actually relatively simple and easy to understand, that is, there is a shortage of funds in the market. At this time, the general performance is that the prices of investment assets will fall, and the prices of daily necessities will rise. In short, stocks, funds, etc. There will be a callback, and commodities such as rice, noodles, oil, vegetables and meat will generally rise. The reason for this is the shortage of market funds.
For digital currencies, there are also spring disasters. The spring disasters in 2018, 19, and early 2020 are more obvious, mainly because the big market is still in a bear market. Naturally, the basic style is to make money in the first half of the year and realize the market in the second half of the year. It also determines that the end of the year will basically fall.
The market from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017 was mainly due to the impact of the halving of Bitcoin. There were signs of a bull market in 2017. Therefore, at the end of 2016, not only did the currency price have no spring difficulties, but it also rose sharply. This is the same as the end of 2020. The beginning of 2021 is quite similar. If we look back, in fact, from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the currency price also experienced another wave of correction.
